ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[ronjon]

I computed the distance to WPB (26.5N-80W) as 616 miles from 92Ls current position. At its current speed (15 mph), it'll take 41 hours to reach it. I think its got about 36 hrs before it turns north with the trough lifting out from the GOM.

I see absolutely nothing to indicate a Florida threat at this time. The main question I have is whether it'll make a significant impact on the NC coast or pass offshore.

ah, wxman57, your no fun. I agree it'll likely be a carolina threat if a highly sheared CAT 1 storm is that much of a threat. Still, these highly sheared weak systems don't always follow the rules (i.e ernesto)

[Bocadude85]

I computed the distance to WPB (26.5N-80W) as 616 miles from 92Ls current position. At its current speed (15 mph), it'll take 41 hours to reach it. I think its got about 36 hrs before it turns north with the trough lifting out from the GOM.

I see absolutely nothing to indicate a Florida threat at this time. The main question I have is whether it'll make a significant impact on the NC coast or pass offshore.

Whats interesting though is this system does seem to be tracking a little further to the west then the models were expecting, most models have this going NW right from the off but it seems more like a 280-285 track to me.

Yup looks like a current heading of 280... most of the models have this moving off to the NW already.... was looking at the 00z GFDL and it has this crossing 70w at 26n...

[KWT]

Though to be fair in the last hour does seem to be averaging more of a 300 degree heading looking at the high resolution loop.

Still looks like the biggest threat is to the outer Banks it seems. Florida should be ok, this one is heading north of the state.

Derek, looks like its slowed right down thats for sure.

[boca]

As I posted 2 pages back this poor excuse of a system will pull a Floyd type of track. If the ULL over the SE US starts moving east quicker than the Outter Banks of NC will get this sheared mess or just miss to the east.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[wxman57]

New model run came in with "Danny" in the header.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1406 UTC WED AUG 26 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE DANNY (AL052009) 20090826 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090826 1200 090827 0000 090827 1200 090828 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.6N 70.0W 25.6N 72.3W 26.3N 74.1W 27.1N 75.4W
BAMD 24.6N 70.0W 25.3N 71.9W 25.8N 73.4W 26.4N 74.9W
BAMM 24.6N 70.0W 25.4N 72.0W 26.0N 73.6W 26.7N 74.8W
LBAR 24.6N 70.0W 26.0N 72.0W 27.1N 73.7W 28.6N 74.9W
SHIP 40KTS 43KTS 48KTS 53KTS
DSHP 40KTS 43KTS 48KTS 53KTS

[Thunder44]

New model run came in with "Danny" in the header.

AL, 05, 2009082612, , BEST, 0, 246N, 700W, 40, 1009, DB,

[Bocadude85]

Though to be fair in the last hour does seem to be averaging more of a 300 degree heading looking at the high resolution loop.

Still looks like the biggest threat is to the outer Banks it seems. Florida should be ok, this one is heading north of the state.

Derek, looks like its slowed right down thats for sure.

I also do not think this will make a Fla landfall.. just think it may get a little closer then some are thinking.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KWBC 261407
NOAA3 WXWXA AL92 HDOB 36 20090826
135730 2618N 07150W 6433 03876 0108 +063 +025 062029 030 999 999 03
135800 2617N 07153W 6432 03879 0111 +061 +031 065030 030 999 999 03
135830 2617N 07155W 6431 03881 0112 +060 +033 068030 030 999 999 03
135900 2616N 07158W 6432 03878 0110 +064 +006 064030 030 999 999 03
135930 2616N 07200W 6432 03878 0107 +065 +008 066031 031 999 999 03
140000 2615N 07203W 6432 03878 0113 +061 +013 067031 032 999 999 03
140030 2615N 07206W 6431 03881 0109 +065 +011 068030 030 999 999 03
140100 2614N 07208W 6432 03881 0108 +067 +006 067029 029 999 999 03
140130 2614N 07211W 6431 03883 0114 +063 +007 069030 031 999 999 03
140200 2613N 07214W 6432 03881 0116 +062 +010 072030 031 999 999 03
140230 2613N 07216W 6432 03882 0119 +060 +013 074030 030 999 999 03
140300 2612N 07219W 6432 03884 0116 +063 +016 078028 029 999 999 03
140330 2612N 07222W 6432 03884 0114 +065 +024 081027 028 999 999 03
140400 2611N 07225W 6432 03885 0108 +067 +024 075024 025 999 999 03
140430 2611N 07227W 6431 03885 0110 +068 +005 070021 021 999 999 03
140500 2610N 07230W 6432 03883 0112 +066 +004 067021 022 999 999 03
140530 2610N 07232W 6433 03883 0110 +068 -003 064021 021 999 999 03
140600 2609N 07235W 6433 03883 0110 +069 -004 061020 020 999 999 03
140630 2609N 07238W 6432 03885 0114 +067 -002 060020 021 999 999 03
140700 2608N 07240W 6433 03885 0113 +068 -008 058022 022 999 999 03

[tolakram]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al922009_al052009.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200908261404
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END


BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al052009.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200908261414
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
DANNY, AL, L, , , , , 05, 2009, TS, R, 2009082412, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 5, AL052009

[KWT]

Good spot Wxman57, starting at 40kts it seems, still lets wait for the offical word but looks like Danny is on the way shortly.

[Aric Dunn]

whats crazy is how low the wind readings are.. not the system we saw yesterday..

they may just make it a depression..

[artist]

whats crazy is how low the wind readings are.. not the system we saw yesterday..

they may just make it a depression..

it is now danny

[boca]

It looks like that Tampa Bay shield is up for the state of Florida.

[vbhoutex]

I'm not sure if it has slowed down or if it is really consolidating/winding up quickly. It definitely isn't in a hurry tomove anywhere. The zoomed in vis on it clearly shows to me that the LLCC is getting tighter and tighter. I would expect to see some of the convection now attempt to wrap around it. Not sure how successful it will be in that department though since there isn't very much vigorous convection really close to the center. It will be intersting to see when the call is made on this one.
edit: It looks like it will be called soon noting the posts above that came in while I was typing up mine.

[HURAKAN]

Very productive second half of August.

[HURAKAN]

[rog]

It looks to me like this will be named Danny before the day is done. 92L has a good LLC and is trying to wrap T'storms around the the north side of the center. I suspect as soon as the 2 separate it won't take long to become moderate Cat1.

Not an official forecast JMO.

Rog

[jenmrk]

I just read at another forum that we now have Tropical Storm Danny, not sure if I am allowed to say what site.

[Air Force Met]

It looks to me like this will be named Danny before the day is done. 92L has a good LLC and is trying to wrap T'storms around the the north side of the center. I suspect as soon as the 2 separate it won't take long to become moderate Cat1.

Not an official forecast JMO.

Rog

I can guarantee it will...

[HurricaneBelle]

It looks to me like this will be named Danny before the day is done

It'll be named Danny before the hour is done.