ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KWBC 270028
NOAA3 WXWXA DANNY1 HDOB 26 20090827
001830 2532N 07140W 6441 03854 0075 +078 +007 040010 011 999 999 03
001900 2530N 07142W 6442 03854 0074 +079 +007 045011 011 999 999 03
001930 2529N 07144W 6442 03854 0074 +079 +006 039011 012 999 999 03
002000 2528N 07145W 6441 03855 0076 +078 +005 038012 012 999 999 03
002030 2526N 07147W 6442 03855 0078 +077 +008 038012 012 999 999 03
002100 2525N 07149W 6442 03856 0078 +077 +014 033010 010 004 000 03
002130 2523N 07151W 6442 03854 0075 +079 +010 032011 011 999 999 03
002200 2522N 07153W 6442 03854 0073 +080 +005 030010 011 999 999 03
002230 2520N 07155W 6443 03854 0074 +079 +013 025007 009 999 999 03
002300 2519N 07157W 6443 03854 0082 +073 +018 019005 006 999 999 03
002330 2517N 07159W 6451 03843 0083 +074 +022 019005 006 999 999 03
002400 2515N 07200W 6618 03634 0083 +088 +024 020004 004 999 999 03
002430 2513N 07201W 6777 03435 0078 +104 +032 025004 005 999 999 03
002500 2512N 07202W 6925 03256 0081 +109 +084 035004 006 999 999 03
002530 2510N 07203W 7117 03027 0091 +115 +101 043006 008 999 999 03
002600 2508N 07205W 7296 02819 0093 +126 +106 060004 005 999 999 03
002630 2506N 07206W 7471 02619 0097 +135 +111 078005 005 999 999 03
002700 2504N 07207W 7515 02568 0099 +136 +113 060005 005 999 999 03
002730 2503N 07208W 7513 02570 0097 +139 +101 054004 004 999 999 03
002800 2501N 07209W 7514 02571 0099 +135 +115 066005 006 003 000 03

[webke]

I don't know alot about these things, but it seems to be trying to build itself up at the moment to me, does anyone else see that or am I in left field.
Thanks

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... g&itype=ir

[Aric Dunn]

yep GFS has the ULL kicking a tad South before it boogies out E and then ENE right at the 12 hr mark. Tomorrow we will see.

yep .. its going to be interesting..

[Dave]

URNT15 KWBC 270038
NOAA3 WXWXA DANNY1 HDOB 27 20090827
002830 2459N 07210W 7512 02572 0100 +134 +120 082006 007 999 999 03
002900 2457N 07211W 7513 02571 0101 +134 +122 062006 007 999 999 03
002930 2456N 07213W 7513 02572 0096 +141 +108 034005 006 004 000 03
003000 2454N 07214W 7512 02574 0099 +138 +103 030003 004 999 999 03
003030 2452N 07215W 7513 02573 0100 +138 +104 014003 003 999 999 03
003100 2450N 07216W 7514 02573 0099 +140 +099 034001 002 999 999 03
003130 2448N 07217W 7513 02572 0096 +142 +096 085002 002 999 999 03
003200 2447N 07218W 7513 02572 0095 +143 +101 105001 002 999 999 03
003230 2445N 07220W 7514 02571 0094 +144 +101 150002 002 999 999 03
003300 2443N 07221W 7515 02570 0096 +141 +105 171002 002 999 999 03
003330 2442N 07222W 7512 02573 0096 +140 +109 219003 003 999 999 03
003400 2440N 07223W 7514 02572 0096 +141 +105 267003 003 999 999 03
003430 2438N 07225W 7513 02572 0095 +142 +106 284002 002 999 999 03
003500 2437N 07226W 7513 02573 0097 +140 +107 311002 003 999 999 03
003530 2435N 07227W 7513 02573 0096 +140 +120 265003 004 999 999 03
003600 2433N 07228W 7513 02574 0098 +138 +121 292002 003 008 000 03
003630 2431N 07229W 7513 02573 0099 +140 +101 292004 004 999 999 03
003700 2430N 07230W 7513 02573 0099 +140 +099 299004 004 999 999 03
003730 2428N 07231W 7514 02572 0101 +138 +105 306003 004 999 999 03
003800 2426N 07233W 7514 02573 0099 +140 +102 298004 004 999 999 03

[Dave]

[Dave]

URNT15 KWBC 270048
NOAA3 WXWXA DANNY1 HDOB 28 20090827
003830 2424N 07233W 7514 02572 0100 +138 +106 298004 005 999 999 03
003900 2423N 07231W 7515 02571 0101 +137 +108 291004 005 999 999 03
003930 2423N 07229W 7514 02573 0100 +140 +098 249004 004 999 999 03
004000 2424N 07227W 7514 02573 0099 +141 +098 258004 005 999 999 03
004030 2425N 07225W 7514 02573 0100 +139 +099 277006 006 999 999 03
004100 2425N 07222W 7514 02573 0101 +139 +103 286005 006 999 999 03
004130 2426N 07220W 7514 02573 0099 +139 +109 283005 005 999 999 03
004200 2426N 07218W 7513 02573 0099 +140 +106 278004 005 999 999 03
004230 2427N 07216W 7512 02575 0099 +140 +105 273004 005 999 999 03
004300 2427N 07214W 7515 02572 0098 +138 +123 258006 006 999 999 03
004330 2428N 07211W 7514 02573 0096 +139 +130 293004 005 999 999 03
004400 2428N 07209W 7514 02573 0097 +143 +102 301005 005 999 999 03
004430 2428N 07207W 7515 02571 0099 +140 +108 269005 007 999 999 03
004500 2429N 07205W 7513 02575 0099 +139 +122 235004 006 999 999 03
004530 2429N 07203W 7513 02574 0100 +136 +133 226006 006 003 000 03
004600 2429N 07200W 7515 02572 0102 +135 +123 261007 008 999 999 03
004630 2430N 07158W 7514 02573 0103 +136 +107 267006 007 999 999 03
004700 2430N 07156W 7514 02573 0107 +132 +106 255005 005 999 999 03
004730 2430N 07154W 7514 02573 0107 +133 +110 252005 005 999 999 03
004800 2431N 07151W 7514 02573 0105 +135 +108 243006 006 999 999 03

[clfenwi]

AL, 05, 2009082700, , BEST, 0, 257N, 712W, 45, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 150, 120, 0, 135, 1012, 150, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DANNY, M,

[clfenwi]

WHXX01 KWBC 270049
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0049 UTC THU AUG 27 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE DANNY (AL052009) 20090827 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090827 0000 090827 1200 090828 0000 090828 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.7N 71.2W 26.8N 73.1W 27.9N 74.3W 29.0N 75.1W
BAMD 25.7N 71.2W 26.5N 72.8W 27.4N 74.1W 28.8N 75.0W
BAMM 25.7N 71.2W 26.5N 72.9W 27.4N 74.2W 28.6N 75.1W
LBAR 25.7N 71.2W 26.8N 72.5W 28.0N 73.5W 29.5N 74.1W
SHIP 45KTS 49KTS 54KTS 60KTS
DSHP 45KTS 49KTS 54KTS 60KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090829 0000 090830 0000 090831 0000 090901 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.5N 74.9W 34.2N 71.2W 38.4N 67.0W 44.3N 58.3W
BAMD 31.2N 75.4W 37.6N 70.9W 45.5N 58.6W 46.0N 34.2W
BAMM 30.5N 75.1W 35.3N 70.7W 41.0N 64.4W 47.4N 47.7W
LBAR 31.3N 73.8W 36.5N 70.9W 45.5N 59.4W .0N .0W
SHIP 65KTS 75KTS 67KTS 47KTS
DSHP 65KTS 75KTS 56KTS 34KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.7N LONCUR = 71.2W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 24.6N LONM12 = 69.8W DIRM12 = 306DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 23.3N LONM24 = 66.7W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 150NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 135NM

$$
NNNN

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KWBC 270051
XXAA 77018 99244 70725 08042 99010 27230 33011 00091 26625 32006
92777 21608 29003 85509 18020 25003 88999 77999
31313 09608 80038
61616 NOAA3 WXWXA DANNY1 OB 09
62626 REL 2443N07255W 003809 SPG 2443N07254W 004145 WL150 31506 0
87 DLM WND 28503 009752 MBL WND 30504 LST WND 012=

XXBB 77018 99244 70725 08042 00010 27230 11994 26222 22869 18807
33768 14647 44751 14040
21212 00010 33011 11009 33011 22008 32507 33984 29503 44751 30004
31313 09608 80038
61616 NOAA3 WXWXA DANNY1 OB 09
62626 REL 2443N07255W 003809 SPG 2443N07254W 004145 WL150 31506 0
87 DLM WND 28503 009752 MBL WND 30504 LST WND 012=

[Dave]

URNT15 KWBC 270058
NOAA3 WXWXA DANNY1 HDOB 29 20090827
004830 2431N 07149W 7514 02574 0105 +134 +111 226006 006 999 999 03
004900 2431N 07147W 7514 02573 0104 +134 +113 218006 006 999 999 03
004930 2432N 07144W 7514 02572 0106 +132 +113 214006 006 999 999 03
005000 2432N 07142W 7515 02572 0104 +136 +100 209007 007 999 999 03
005030 2432N 07140W 7515 02572 0102 +137 +102 213007 007 999 999 03
005100 2432N 07138W 7515 02572 0100 +139 +110 210007 008 999 999 03
005130 2433N 07135W 7514 02573 0100 +138 +115 200008 009 999 999 03
005200 2433N 07133W 7515 02572 0102 +136 +115 195010 011 005 000 03
005230 2433N 07131W 7516 02572 0100 +136 +120 205013 016 012 000 03
005300 2434N 07129W 7516 02572 0100 +135 +130 219012 014 017 003 03
005330 2434N 07126W 7517 02570 0101 +137 +117 221011 011 008 000 03
005400 2434N 07124W 7515 02572 0100 +139 +112 211012 013 011 000 03
005430 2435N 07122W 7514 02573 0102 +137 +114 214011 012 999 999 03
005500 2435N 07120W 7516 02572 0101 +140 +107 215012 013 003 000 03
005530 2436N 07117W 7514 02574 0103 +139 +104 211013 013 999 999 03
005600 2436N 07115W 7515 02574 0103 +139 +100 207013 014 003 000 03
005630 2436N 07113W 7516 02573 0102 +140 +105 208014 015 007 000 03
005700 2437N 07110W 7516 02572 0101 +141 +100 208014 015 999 999 03
005730 2437N 07108W 7515 02574 0104 +138 +107 211014 015 999 999 03
005800 2437N 07106W 7516 02573 0106 +136 +105 212015 015 999 999 03

[shortwave]

2-3 days ago it was supposedly to have a very favorable upper level envirenment around it's current location. That looks hostile...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html
curious on how that will evolve.

[Aric Dunn]

what plane is up.. is it a P3 ?

have not been paying attention..

[brunota2003]

The OBS say NOAA, so

what plane is up.. is it a P3 ?

have not been paying attention..

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

It sure as heck looks like he's gonna barrel right into the space coast.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KWBC 270108
NOAA3 WXWXA DANNY1 HDOB 30 20090827
005830 2438N 07104W 7516 02573 0106 +136 +102 209015 015 999 999 03
005900 2438N 07101W 7514 02575 0111 +131 +110 211015 015 999 999 03
005930 2439N 07059W 7515 02574 0111 +131 +110 209016 016 999 999 03
010000 2439N 07057W 7515 02574 0114 +128 +108 203018 020 999 999 03
010030 2439N 07054W 7515 02575 0113 +130 +103 204016 017 999 999 03
010100 2440N 07052W 7515 02575 0115 +130 +095 202017 018 999 999 03
010130 2440N 07050W 7516 02574 0112 +131 +096 202018 018 006 000 03
010200 2441N 07048W 7517 02572 0109 +136 +079 202018 018 999 999 03
010230 2441N 07045W 7516 02573 0107 +139 +065 199019 019 999 999 03
010300 2441N 07043W 7515 02574 0106 +141 +066 199020 021 999 999 03
010330 2442N 07041W 7517 02573 0110 +136 +082 201022 023 999 999 03
010400 2442N 07039W 7517 02573 0110 +134 +102 204022 023 006 000 03
010430 2443N 07037W 7518 02572 0108 +137 +093 202022 023 006 000 03
010500 2444N 07034W 7516 02574 0104 +142 +082 198023 023 006 000 03
010530 2445N 07032W 7516 02573 0102 +143 +084 199023 024 003 000 03
010600 2445N 07030W 7516 02574 0104 +141 +082 204023 023 005 000 03
010630 2446N 07028W 7516 02575 0109 +137 +082 206023 023 004 000 03
010700 2446N 07025W 7515 02576 0108 +138 +086 204023 024 006 000 03
010730 2446N 07023W 7516 02576 0113 +134 +088 199024 025 006 000 03
010800 2447N 07021W 7518 02574 0111 +137 +075 202023 024 003 000 03

[Dave]

[Aric Dunn]

It sure as heck looks like he's gonna barrel right into the space coast.

yeah the circ seems to be expanding westward..

[george_r_1961]

All im seeing is a sheared system that barely resembles a tropical cyclone. I would be surprised if this strengthens at all tonight.

[Dave]

URNT15 KWBC 270118
NOAA3 WXWXA DANNY1 HDOB 31 20090827
010830 2447N 07018W 7514 02578 0115 +134 +080 201023 023 004 000 03
010900 2447N 07016W 7516 02576 0116 +134 +080 201023 023 005 000 03
010930 2448N 07014W 7517 02576 0114 +135 +082 201023 024 999 999 03
011000 2448N 07012W 7516 02577 0115 +134 +087 200024 024 999 999 03
011030 2449N 07009W 7515 02579 0115 +133 +101 197024 025 999 999 03
011100 2449N 07007W 7516 02579 0116 +132 +105 194025 025 003 000 03
011130 2449N 07005W 7515 02580 0120 +130 +098 194025 025 999 999 03
011200 2449N 07002W 7517 02579 0121 +129 +106 195025 026 004 000 03
011230 2450N 07000W 7516 02580 0123 +126 +109 196024 025 004 000 03
011300 2450N 06958W 7517 02579 0124 +127 +100 198024 024 006 000 03
011330 2450N 06955W 7516 02580 0123 +130 +082 196026 027 003 000 03
011400 2451N 06953W 7517 02580 0121 +131 +089 193027 027 999 999 03
011430 2451N 06951W 7518 02579 0119 +135 +076 194027 028 005 000 03
011500 2451N 06948W 7517 02579 0118 +136 +067 194027 027 004 000 03
011530 2452N 06946W 7517 02580 0117 +138 +059 194027 027 004 000 03
011600 2452N 06944W 7517 02580 0118 +138 +061 195028 028 999 999 03
011630 2452N 06941W 7517 02581 0118 +138 +064 195028 029 999 999 03
011700 2453N 06939W 7517 02581 0117 +141 +051 197028 029 999 999 03
011730 2453N 06937W 7517 02582 0116 +144 +025 195029 030 003 000 03
011800 2454N 06934W 7517 02583 0118 +143 +034 194029 029 999 999 03

[wxman57]

Looks like the broad center may be opening up and elliptical. However, it should try to tighten up near the convection. It's NOT going to Florida, by the way. Upper-level winds/steering currents won't permit it. It would have to move against the mid-level wind flow to reach Florida with that upper trof digging into the FL Panhandle by late tomorrow.