ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[Air Force Met]

It's really difficult to see in this image, but if you look at an unenhanced IR loop just from just before sunrise, you'll see a low-level "arc" shaped cloud feature moving away from the center beneath the high clouds. This indicates cool downdrafts rushing outward when they reach the surface. As long as that happens (and further combined with shear), Danny will have a very hard time maintaining convection over the center.

Lots of dry air...hence the downdrafts.

http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/opdb/goes/soundings/skewt23L/html/27074.html

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 271403
AF307 0505A DANNY HDOB 07 20090827
135400 2002N 06551W 3597 08430 0508 -225 -280 086017 017 999 999 03
135430 2005N 06553W 3598 08430 0508 -225 -263 088017 017 999 999 03
135500 2007N 06554W 3598 08434 0509 -225 -253 086015 016 999 999 03
135530 2010N 06556W 3598 08436 0509 -225 -261 087014 015 999 999 03
135600 2012N 06557W 3598 08432 0508 -225 -260 091015 015 999 999 03
135630 2014N 06558W 3598 08438 0509 -225 -261 093015 016 999 999 03
135700 2017N 06600W 3598 08432 0508 -225 -265 095016 016 999 999 03
135730 2019N 06601W 3598 08429 0508 -225 -268 091017 017 999 999 03
135800 2021N 06603W 3598 08430 0507 -225 -271 084017 017 999 999 03
135830 2024N 06604W 3597 08433 0508 -225 -275 079016 016 999 999 03
135900 2026N 06606W 3598 08433 0508 -225 -279 082015 016 999 999 03
135930 2029N 06607W 3598 08433 0509 -225 -283 080015 015 999 999 03
140000 2031N 06609W 3598 08434 0508 -225 -286 081014 014 999 999 03
140030 2033N 06610W 3598 08430 0507 -225 -290 083014 014 999 999 03
140100 2036N 06611W 3598 08431 0508 -225 -293 085014 014 999 999 03
140130 2038N 06613W 3597 08432 0508 -225 -296 088014 015 999 999 03
140200 2040N 06614W 3598 08430 0507 -225 -300 090014 014 999 999 03
140230 2043N 06616W 3598 08436 0508 -225 -303 091013 013 999 999 03
140300 2045N 06617W 3598 08436 0509 -225 -305 095013 013 999 999 03
140330 2048N 06619W 3598 08433 0509 -225 -308 093012 012 999 999 03
$$
;

[Evil Jeremy]

still heading west! I still think this will ride up the east coast from FLA to NC.
This is a tough one for the NHC to forcast.

As many have said more times then needed, this is not heading towards Florida. The circulation will rejoin with the convection eventually and head up north, but there is no chance this is coming to Florida at this point.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Aric, you are seeing this I presume....lol this is no inside joke, go back say 12-14 hours in this thread and see what the ULL over LA is doing ...not much

['CaneFreak]

still heading west! I still think this will ride up the east coast from FLA to NC.
This is a tough one for the NHC to forcast.

As many have said more times then needed, this is not heading towards Florida. The circulation will rejoin with the convection eventually and head up north, but there is no chance this is coming to Florida at this point.

I dont think canes04 meant it was going to hit FL...I think she meant it was going to parallel FL..

[Dave]

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, you are seeing this I presume....lol this is no inside joke, go back say 12-14 hours in this thread and see what the ULL over LA is doing ...not much

well of course im seeing this.. me and a few others were not exactly agreeing with the models.. i was sort of expecting this to happen since that upper low still has not really moved.. if it keeps moving west like this watches for bahamas soon..

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 271413
AF307 0505A DANNY HDOB 08 20090827
140400 2050N 06620W 3597 08436 0509 -225 -310 095012 013 999 999 03
140430 2052N 06622W 3598 08434 0509 -225 -312 095012 012 999 999 03
140500 2055N 06623W 3598 08435 0509 -225 -315 100012 012 999 999 03
140530 2057N 06625W 3598 08435 0509 -225 -318 098012 012 999 999 03
140600 2059N 06626W 3597 08436 0508 -225 -320 105012 013 999 999 03
140630 2102N 06627W 3597 08442 0510 -225 -321 109013 013 999 999 03
140700 2104N 06629W 3598 08429 0510 -225 -324 109013 013 999 999 03
140730 2107N 06630W 3598 08432 0510 -223 -327 109012 012 999 999 03
140800 2109N 06632W 3597 08435 0510 -224 -329 111012 012 999 999 03
140830 2111N 06633W 3598 08435 0510 -224 -331 112012 012 999 999 03
140900 2114N 06635W 3597 08437 0512 -225 -333 113012 012 999 999 03
140930 2116N 06636W 3599 08437 0512 -222 -335 118012 013 999 999 03
141000 2119N 06638W 3599 08427 0511 -222 -337 118013 013 999 999 03
141030 2121N 06639W 3596 08436 0512 -222 -339 120013 013 999 999 03
141100 2124N 06641W 3598 08437 0512 -220 -341 121013 013 999 999 03
141130 2126N 06642W 3599 08436 0512 -220 -342 121013 013 999 999 03
141200 2128N 06644W 3598 08441 0513 -220 -344 121012 013 999 999 03
141230 2131N 06645W 3597 08437 0513 -220 -345 121013 013 999 999 03
141300 2133N 06647W 3597 08442 0513 -220 -346 121013 013 999 999 03
141330 2136N 06648W 3599 08437 0514 -220 -348 122012 012 999 999 03
$$
;

[canes04]

Thanks Canefreak, I never said it as going to impact Florida just come closer than everyone was thinking. Of course if it can wrap up it would move north, that's just not happening.

By the way canefreak i'm a guy

[storms NC]

{I dont think canes04 meant it was going to hit FL...I think she meant it was going to parallel FL.. }

That is the way I took it. just ride the coast not going into.
But I wouldn't put NC out just yet. There is still a chance he will come into NC.

Just looked at the ULL and not doing any thing. But I read it was to be in NC by Friday. Am I right or wrong? I could had read it wrong.But no way it could be here by Friday.

[Nimbus]

Hopefully this means Danny gets inland sooner so he does not have time to develop.

[Aric Dunn]

The steering in the low levels really wants to keep it going west ..

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 271423
AF307 0505A DANNY HDOB 09 20090827
141400 2138N 06650W 3598 08433 0513 -220 -350 124011 011 999 999 03
141430 2140N 06651W 3596 08441 0514 -220 -351 129011 012 999 999 03
141500 2143N 06653W 3598 08440 0512 -220 -352 130012 012 999 999 03
141530 2145N 06654W 3598 08435 0513 -220 -352 133012 012 999 999 03
141600 2148N 06656W 3597 08439 0512 -220 -353 133012 012 999 999 03
141630 2150N 06657W 3598 08439 0514 -220 -355 134011 011 999 999 03
141700 2153N 06659W 3597 08437 0511 -220 -356 133012 012 999 999 03
141730 2155N 06700W 3597 08440 0512 -220 -357 136011 012 999 999 03
141800 2157N 06702W 3598 08438 0512 -220 -358 130011 012 999 999 03
141830 2200N 06703W 3598 08439 0512 -220 -359 132012 012 999 999 03
141900 2202N 06705W 3597 08442 0512 -220 -359 129013 013 999 999 03
141930 2205N 06706W 3597 08441 0512 -220 -359 132013 013 999 999 03
142000 2207N 06708W 3598 08439 0511 -220 -360 133013 013 999 999 03
142030 2209N 06709W 3598 08433 0512 -220 -361 138012 012 999 999 03
142100 2212N 06711W 3598 08438 0512 -220 -361 138012 013 999 999 03
142130 2214N 06712W 3598 08437 0512 -220 -361 140013 013 999 999 03
142200 2217N 06714W 3598 08435 0512 -220 -363 143012 013 999 999 03
142230 2219N 06715W 3598 08441 0514 -220 -362 144012 013 999 999 03
142300 2221N 06717W 3597 08439 0513 -220 -363 144013 014 999 999 03
142330 2224N 06718W 3600 08435 0512 -218 -364 146013 014 999 999 03
$$
;

[deltadog03]

These sheared systems sux.....

[Aric Dunn]

These sheared systems sux.....

yeah they can drive you crazy

[Chacor]

WTNT35 KNHC 271433
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2009

...CENTER OF DANNY WOBBLES WESTWARD...

INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF DANNY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST OR ABOUT
320 MILES...510 KM...NORTHEAST OF NASSAU AND ABOUT 550 MILES...
885 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

DANNY IS MOVING SOMEWHAT ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR
13 MPH...20 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED FORECAST ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...27.5N 73.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[tolakram]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

Amateur observation:

Based on the strong inflow from the south I'm going to guess another center relocation in progress under the convection.

[storms NC]

starting to fill in as it is trying to wrap around the LLC. Yes still dry air but Danny is working hard to fill in moisture

[Aric Dunn]

Just dont understand how the nhc can say that a motion over the last 6 hours or so of nearly 265 is a wobble .. lol

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 271433
AF307 0505A DANNY HDOB 10 20090827
142400 2226N 06720W 3596 08441 0512 -216 -364 142014 015 999 999 03
142430 2229N 06721W 3598 08434 0512 -217 -365 147012 013 999 999 03
142500 2231N 06723W 3598 08433 0511 -219 -365 157011 012 999 999 03
142530 2234N 06724W 3598 08438 0511 -217 -365 152013 013 999 999 03
142600 2236N 06726W 3597 08439 0512 -215 -366 150013 013 999 999 03
142630 2238N 06727W 3596 08440 0513 -215 -367 149013 013 999 999 03
142700 2241N 06729W 3597 08442 0513 -215 -367 153013 013 999 999 03
142730 2243N 06730W 3599 08434 0510 -215 -367 154012 013 999 999 03
142800 2246N 06732W 3597 08434 0512 -215 -368 158012 012 999 999 03
142830 2248N 06733W 3597 08445 0512 -215 -368 156012 012 999 999 03
142900 2250N 06735W 3598 08433 0511 -215 -368 156013 014 999 999 03
142930 2253N 06736W 3597 08442 0512 -215 -369 155014 014 999 999 03
143000 2255N 06738W 3599 08434 0511 -215 -369 156014 015 999 999 03
143030 2258N 06739W 3598 08433 0512 -215 -370 159014 015 999 999 03
143100 2300N 06741W 3597 08438 0512 -215 -369 160014 015 999 999 03
143130 2303N 06743W 3598 08439 0512 -215 -369 161014 014 999 999 03
143200 2305N 06744W 3597 08443 0513 -215 -370 158015 015 999 999 03
143230 2307N 06746W 3597 08444 0513 -214 -370 157015 015 999 999 03
143300 2310N 06747W 3599 08427 0512 -210 -370 161014 015 999 999 03
143330 2312N 06749W 3598 08438 0512 -211 -370 160015 016 999 999 03
$$
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