ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[storms NC]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1

Amateur observation:

Based on the strong inflow from the south I'm going to guess another center relocation in progress under the convection.

Location to where you see this?

[Dave]

000
URNT11 KNHC 271439
97779 14344 50233 67900 79200 16017 71871 /8051
RMK AF307 0505A DANNY OB 02
CB DSNT W TO N
;

[jlauderdal]

These sheared systems sux.....

yeah they do, lets see what this system in the far east can do now that its over da water

[curtadams]

I don't think it was much sheared yesterday but today Danny looks like a storm under mid-level shear. The convection is displaced from the LLC, but they're moving together the way they usually do with a sheared storm. Danny also has dry air, because there's not the "choo-choo train" effect you usually see with sheared storms. Between those two factor I'd estimate it's right on the edge of disconnecting the LLC from the MLC/ULC. Unless conditions improve I expect it will and we'll see another relocation (and an east shift in the forecast).

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 271443
AF307 0505A DANNY HDOB 11 20090827
143400 2315N 06750W 3598 08439 0511 -210 -370 161016 017 999 999 03
143430 2317N 06752W 3598 08440 0510 -210 -370 163016 017 999 999 03
143500 2320N 06753W 3598 08433 0510 -210 -370 163017 017 999 999 03
143530 2322N 06755W 3595 08439 0511 -210 -370 163017 017 999 999 03
143600 2325N 06756W 3599 08435 0509 -210 -371 164017 017 999 999 03
143630 2327N 06758W 3598 08442 0511 -210 -371 165016 017 999 999 03
143700 2329N 06800W 3599 08435 0512 -210 -370 164017 017 999 999 03
143730 2332N 06801W 3598 08435 0510 -210 -370 166017 017 999 999 03
143800 2334N 06803W 3598 08433 0509 -210 -371 166017 018 999 999 03
143830 2337N 06804W 3598 08434 0510 -210 -372 166018 018 999 999 03
143900 2339N 06806W 3597 08442 0510 -210 -370 166019 019 999 999 03
143930 2342N 06807W 3597 08434 0510 -210 -370 167018 018 999 999 03
144000 2344N 06809W 3597 08438 0511 -210 -370 170017 018 999 999 03
144030 2346N 06810W 3599 08432 0511 -210 -369 180017 018 999 999 03
144100 2349N 06812W 3598 08438 0510 -210 -369 175018 018 999 999 03
144130 2351N 06814W 3598 08433 0509 -210 -369 183019 019 999 999 03
144200 2354N 06815W 3598 08435 0510 -211 -369 191018 019 999 999 03
144230 2356N 06817W 3598 08437 0509 -210 -369 194019 019 999 999 03
144300 2359N 06818W 3598 08434 0509 -210 -370 197021 021 999 999 03
144330 2401N 06820W 3598 08432 0509 -207 -370 184020 020 999 999 03
$$
;

[canes04]

check out the 11am heading," wobbles westward" are you kidding me.
The storm has been moving west all morning.

[Chacor]

From the Canadian Hurricane Centre:

WOCN31 CWHX 271200
TROPICAL STORM DANNY INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT
THURSDAY 27 AUGUST 2009.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT

... DANNY STILL TAKING SHAPE ...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 AM ADT... TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
27.8 N AND LONGITUDE 72.5 W... ABOUT 500 NAUTICAL MILES OR 925 KM
EAST NORTHEAST OF COCKBURN . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS... 93 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1006
MB. DANNY IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 KNOTS... 13 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
AUG 27 9.00 AM 27.8N 72.5W 1006 50 93
AUG 27 9.00 PM 29.0N 73.5W 1004 50 93
AUG 28 9.00 AM 31.1N 74.0W 1002 55 102
AUG 28 9.00 PM 34.0N 73.4W 998 65 120
AUG 29 9.00 AM 37.7N 71.6W 987 65 120
AUG 29 9.00 PM 41.4N 68.8W 985 65 120
AUG 30 9.00 AM 45.7N 63.9W 990 55 102 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 30 9.00 PM 48.5N 58.6W 995 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 31 9.00 AM 50.8N 50.8W 998 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
AUG 31 9.00 PM 52.5N 44.1W 1000 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
SEP 01 9.00 AM 53.6N 34.9W 1002 35 65 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
EVENTUALLY DANNY WILL PRODUCE RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND
BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE AMOUNTS.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
DANNY WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH CANADIAN WATERS.
THOUGH IT MAY PRODUCE HURRICANE WINDS UPON FIRST ENTERING
THE MARINE DISTRICT.. IT WILL WEAKEN ONCE IT MOVES OVER COLDER
WATERS.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS
UTILISING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT
BUT ONCE THE VISUAL IMAGERY BECOMES AVAIABLE.. THE POSITION
SHOULD BECOME CLEARER. MIAMI HAS HAD DIFFICULTY FINDING THE
CENTRE OF DANNY AS THE WIND FIELD IS ASYMETRIC AS SHOWN BY
QUICKSCAT PLUS THE CENTRE HAD REFORMED TO THE NORTHEAST.

B. PROGNOSTIC
DANNY WILL PRESENT CHALLENGES TO FORECAST CENTRES AS IT IS POORLY
FORMED. YET.. THE MODEL GUIDANCE WANTS TO DEVELOP
DANNY INTO A MARGINAL HURRICANCE AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD
AND PASSES THE CAROLINA COAST. INDICATIONS ARE
FOR DANNY TO UNDERGO EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION ONCE
IT PASSES CAPE COD. HOW MUCH HURRICANE FORCE STRENGTH
WILL BE LEFT IN DANNY BEYOND THAT POINT IS QUESTIONABLE.

IT MUST BE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF DANNY ONCE IT
REACHES CANADIAN WATERS. WE ARE FOLLOWING THE GUIDANCE FROM
MIAMI AND WILL LIKELY DO SO IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
DECAYING TROPICAL SYSTEMS OFTEN PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN OVER THE
MARTIMES AND PAST EXPERIENCE INDICATES THAT LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS MAY BE PRODUCED.

D. MARINE WEATHER

PREDICTED WIND RADII WILL BE PRODUCED ONCE THERE IS MORE
CERTAINTY IN DANNY'S INTENSITY.. ESPECIALLY ONCE IT
REACHES CANADIAN WATERS.

END CAMPBELL

CHC's forecast track is to the left of the NHC's after 48 hours.

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 271453
AF307 0505A DANNY HDOB 12 20090827
144400 2404N 06821W 3595 08440 0511 -210 -371 187020 020 999 999 03
144430 2406N 06823W 3599 08433 0508 -209 -371 191021 021 999 999 03
144500 2408N 06825W 3598 08436 0509 -208 -372 189021 021 999 999 03
144530 2411N 06826W 3597 08431 0510 -208 -373 194021 022 999 999 03
144600 2413N 06828W 3599 08430 0508 -205 -372 201020 020 999 999 03
144630 2416N 06829W 3598 08424 0507 -205 -370 201020 020 999 999 03
144700 2418N 06831W 3597 08427 0505 -206 -370 202020 020 999 999 03
144730 2420N 06832W 3598 08432 0504 -210 -374 203022 023 999 999 03
144800 2423N 06834W 3596 08432 0503 -210 -372 200024 025 999 999 03
144830 2425N 06835W 3600 08426 0503 -210 -376 202026 026 999 999 03
144900 2428N 06837W 3598 08424 0502 -211 -376 200027 028 999 999 03
144930 2430N 06839W 3602 08428 0502 -208 -373 200026 028 999 999 03
145000 2432N 06840W 3594 08431 0499 -212 -372 186026 028 999 999 03
145030 2435N 06842W 3605 08415 0495 -215 -372 181030 032 999 999 03
145100 2437N 06843W 3597 08422 0498 -210 -370 188027 028 999 999 03
145130 2440N 06845W 3599 08417 0498 -209 -366 198028 029 999 999 03
145200 2442N 06846W 3598 08422 0498 -208 -364 202022 023 999 999 03
145230 2444N 06848W 3598 08424 0497 -207 -362 209026 031 999 999 03
145300 2447N 06849W 3594 08429 0498 -219 -359 212032 032 999 999 03
145330 2449N 06851W 3600 08426 0498 -217 -356 204033 034 999 999 03
$$
;

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052009
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2009

DANNY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION LOOKS BETTER DEFINED THAN IT DID YESTERDAY...
AND THE CONVECTION IS CLOSER TO THE CENTER. THAT BEING SAID...THE
CENTER IS STILL EXPOSED...THE CONVECTION HAS MORE OF A LINEAR
CHARACTER THAN THE CURVED BANDS CHARACTERISTIC OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE STILL WELL REMOVED FROM THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT PENDING THE NEXT
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION AT 18Z...ALTHOUGH RECENT
QUIKSCAT DATA SUGGESTS THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.

THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING ALMOST DUE WESTWARD FOR
THE PAST FEW HOURS. IT IS UNCLEAR IF THIS IS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE
ACTUAL MOTION OF DANNY OR A SHORT-TERM TREND. SO...THE INITIAL
MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 310/11. DESPITE THE PROBLEMATIC INITIAL
MOTION...THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT
DANNY SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HR IN ADVANCE OF A
COMPLEX DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
AFTER THAT...THE STORM SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERLIES...PASSING NEAR OR OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON ITS WAY INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE
NAM...NOGAPS...AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE... CALLING FOR THE CENTER TO PASS NEAR CAPE
HATTERAS AND THEN OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF ARE
ON THE RIGHT SIDE...CALLING FOR THE CENTER TO STAY OFFSHORE UNTIL
IT REACHES NOVA SCOTIA. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 48 HR BASED ON THE INITIAL
POSITION AND MOTION...AND IT LIES DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE. WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK DOES NOT CURRENTLY SHOW DANNY
MAKING LANDFALL IN THE UNITED STATES...ADDITIONAL MOTION TO THE
LEFT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER THE U. S.
EASTERN SEABOARD.

DANNY IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS SEEN IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO BE
REPLACED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24-30 HR...
AND IF THIS VERIFIES IT WILL GIVE DANNY ITS BEST CHANCE TO
STRENGTHEN. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR DANNY
TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE 24-48 HR PERIOD...WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF
65 KT. THE GUIDANCE AGREES THAT DANNY SHOULD START LOSING TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS AND INTENSITY AFTER 48 HR AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN
A STRONG BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...WITH THE PEAK
INTENSITY BELOW THAT OF THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/1500Z 27.5N 73.1W 50 KT
12HR VT 28/0000Z 28.7N 73.9W 50 KT
24HR VT 28/1200Z 30.3N 74.5W 55 KT
36HR VT 29/0000Z 33.2N 74.3W 60 KT
48HR VT 29/1200Z 36.9N 72.4W 65 KT
72HR VT 30/1200Z 45.0N 64.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 31/1200Z 50.0N 53.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 01/1200Z 52.5N 37.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Swimdude]

Ok. I haven't logged in yet in this season. But this morning I've logged in to say that I have never, in 10 years of tracking hurricanes, seen a storm further away from the NHC's predicted track than Danny is this morning.

It should be REALLY interesting when the NHC has to completely readjust the track based on this 6-hour due-West movement.

[Dave]

Switching networks over now will be gone for a little while..anybody available to pick these up here's one of the links to the hdobs that I use...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/URNT15-USAF.shtml?

[sandyb]

[quote="canes04"]check out the 11am heading," wobbles westward" are you kidding me.
The storm has been moving west all morning.[/quo


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html


explain this to me its way off track from hurricane center track whats that say for the track now?

[sandyb]

put on lat/long and plot storm

[feederband]

put on lat/long and plot storm

I think we all see it...But dont no how to respond..If he stays naked at least he cant strengthen...But hes westward bound right now...

[tolakram]

I'm not 100% convinced the swirl will remain the center, but the NHC seemed convinced so I'll have to go with that.

Note the gap in the inflow below the center. On the loop that's getting more pronounced. If it does relocate the the east then the track isn't nearly as far off.

[Aric Dunn]

im not one too say anything negative about the nhc and dont think i have really before .. but the forecast track is really bad.. .. its baffling

[GaryOBX]

Danny is missing his mark from NHC. way to the south of the mark. NHC point is 28.3N 73W it is at 27.3N 73W. He must be going west and not relocateing. like some have said on here. Sorry but this is a very hard guy to figure out.

[tgenius]

I want this thing to keep the NHC path... I'd prefer it to NOT rain this weekend, and the further "west" he gets the higher chance of rain for the weekend

[M_0331]

this is very interesting movement vs NHC forecast.

[feederband]

I want this thing to keep the NHC path... I'd prefer it to NOT rain this weekend, and the further "west" he gets the higher chance of rain for the weekend

All the ditches around here have being full of standing water for a week...We don't have any more room for water right now...