ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY (05L)

[storms NC]

I see danny trying pulling in moisture in around him

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[wjs3]

The "Center" has gotten a lot looser and more elliptical in this last frame (and I HATE talking about one frame!). That old center may be falling apart (no convection to sustain it)--again. As Wxman and others always say, follow the convection.

[wxman57]

check out the 11am heading," wobbles westward" are you kidding me.
The storm has been moving west all morning.

That depends on what you define as the "storm". That weak vortex moving westward isn't the storm. Look at the convection to the east, it's barely moving. Maybe a little westward drift. That's the storm. The current LLC may well dissipate without any support. Look for a reformation near the convection if the shear doesn't let off soon.

[OuterBanker]

I think if it makes it past 75 west it will be hard to miss the coast. It is interesting that they say that Danny is better organized. Defined llc and convection closer to the center. I guess that they are just going to wait and see how long the west movement persists. And they still call the initial movement as 310 which it is clearly not.

[artist]

seems to me the convection is blowing more west thus an illusion. Just what I think I see!

[Thunder44]

Look how the center is becoming elongated east to west and the western inflow is disrupted.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

In my AMATEUR opinion this is because a new center is forming east of the old one and this will either merge/shift over or reform.

I see what you are talking about now. Recon should be in their shortly, anyway. So will see if there are finding that occuring.

[Aric Dunn]

check out the 11am heading," wobbles westward" are you kidding me.
The storm has been moving west all morning.

That depends on what you define as the "storm". That weak vortex moving westward isn't the storm. Look at the convection to the east, it's barely moving. Maybe a little westward drift. That's the storm. The current LLC may well dissipate without any support. Look for a reformation near the convection if the shear doesn't let off soon.

well the NHC said the circulation this morning is the best its been .. and yes i agree with that part.. dont see and reall evidence of relocation..

[Aric Dunn]

I see the gfs is still being way way way way to fast at kicking out that ull over LA .. considering its showing no signs of opening up or moving, im going to disregard the run as well.. it has the ull moving NE in 6 hours.. lol not happening.. lol

[artist]

URNT15 KNHC 271533
AF307 0505A DANNY HDOB 16 20090827
152400 2710N 07031W 3598 08419 0495 -196 -244 259017 018 039 014 03
152430 2712N 07033W 3597 08422 0497 -196 -243 259013 017 030 020 03
152500 2715N 07035W 3598 08426 0496 -195 -242 274008 009 035 008 00
152530 2717N 07036W 3599 08416 0498 -195 -241 300007 009 034 007 00
152600 2719N 07038W 3598 08424 0498 -195 -240 304006 007 034 007 00
152630 2721N 07040W 3598 08420 0498 -195 -241 303005 005 035 007 00
152700 2724N 07041W 3599 08420 0499 -195 -239 338006 007 031 006 00
152730 2726N 07043W 3598 08423 0498 -195 -239 358003 005 028 004 00
152800 2728N 07044W 3597 08423 0497 -193 -239 062004 004 026 005 00
152830 2731N 07046W 3598 08414 0497 -193 -237 079005 006 028 006 00
152900 2733N 07047W 3597 08423 0498 -195 -236 069007 008 028 006 00
152930 2735N 07049W 3598 08418 0498 -195 -236 072009 011 027 007 00
153000 2738N 07050W 3598 08422 0497 -195 -235 075012 014 032 010 00
153030 2740N 07051W 3598 08423 0499 -195 -234 064015 016 036 008 00
153100 2742N 07053W 3598 08418 0493 -195 -234 093017 018 038 013 00
153130 2745N 07054W 3598 08424 0499 -198 -233 059019 023 041 015 00
153200 2747N 07056W 3597 08420 0501 -200 -231 040023 025 040 009 00
153230 2750N 07057W 3597 08426 0502 -201 -232 021024 028 037 007 00
153300 2752N 07058W 3597 08425 0501 -205 -232 008027 028 034 007 00
153330 2754N 07100W 3603 08408 0500 -204 -234 014027 028 035 007 00
$$


000
URNT15 KNHC 271543
AF307 0505A DANNY HDOB 17 20090827
153400 2756N 07101W 3595 08426 0500 -200 -236 015025 026 033 009 00
153430 2758N 07102W 3598 08421 0497 -200 -238 015023 025 039 015 00
153500 2801N 07104W 3598 08423 0498 -199 -240 023021 022 043 017 00
153530 2803N 07105W 3651 08326 0497 -191 -240 032019 020 041 017 03
153600 2805N 07106W 3834 07956 0464 -165 -241 048020 020 999 999 03
153630 2808N 07108W 4049 07521 0425 -145 -241 079023 025 999 999 03
153700 2810N 07109W 4275 07106 0396 -119 -236 090024 027 999 999 03
153730 2812N 07111W 4500 06712 0370 -097 -230 102020 021 999 999 03
153800 2815N 07112W 4731 06324 0347 -076 -224 111018 020 999 999 03
153830 2817N 07113W 4964 05948 0327 -053 -213 117017 018 999 999 03
153900 2819N 07115W 5200 05584 0303 -032 -201 124013 015 999 999 03
153930 2822N 07116W 5439 05229 0279 -012 -189 122008 011 999 999 03
154000 2824N 07117W 5685 04869 0118 -002 -175 118006 007 999 999 03
154030 2826N 07119W 5939 04502 0119 +014 -159 128007 007 999 999 03
154100 2828N 07120W 6205 04172 0138 +036 -145 131008 009 999 999 03
154130 2830N 07121W 6480 03814 0144 +053 -133 129013 017 999 999 03
154200 2832N 07123W 6799 03418 0141 +078 -117 129021 022 999 999 03
154230 2834N 07124W 7129 03017 0134 +100 -101 133021 021 999 999 03
154300 2836N 07125W 7365 02744 0133 +114 -084 120025 030 034 002 03
154330 2838N 07126W 7597 02480 0132 +127 -068 121031 034 034 003 03
$$

[artist]

At 15:34:00Z (first observation), the observation was 439 miles (706 km) to the ENE (63°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
At 15:43:30Z (last observation), the observation was 440 miles (708 km) between the NE and ENE (56°) from Nassau, Bahamas.

[ncgurl]

So does this mean that it will track over eastern NC now?

[Aric Dunn]

So does this mean that it will track over eastern NC now?

cant say for sure.. yet..

[ncgurl]

The way that it is going, it sure does seem like it to me.

[artist]

Dropsonde Observations
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
UZNT13 KNHC 271534
XXAA 77154 99250 70689 07958 99016 27443 15522 00141 26241 16025
92826 22250 17031 85558 17625 18529 70192 07403 18525 50589 06560
23024 40761 15556 21526 88999 77999
31313 09608 81455
61616 AF307 0505A DANNY OB 03
62626 SPL 2503N06893W 1505 MBL WND 16027 AEV 20800 DLM WND 20024
015360 WL150 15524 086 REL 2497N06895W 145525 SPG 2503N06892W 150
528 =
XXBB 77158 99250 70689 07958 00016 27443 11955 23629 22939 23256
33850 17625 44692 07003 55668 05828 66585 01304 77566 02319 88548
02361 99542 02958 11522 04561 22494 06759 33490 06962 44471 08764
55456 10519 66439 11750 77430 12724 88417 14157 99404 15545 11374
18162 22360 21165
21212 00016 15522 11944 17033 22912 17527 33850 18529 44805 20025
55635 18522 66612 20520 77572 20021 88534 22517 99394 21527 11379
21032 22369 19043 33360 20530
31313 09608 81455
61616 AF307 0505A DANNY OB 03
62626 SPL 2503N06893W 1505 MBL WND 16027 AEV 20800 DLM WND 20024
015360 WL150 15524 086 REL 2497N06895W 145525 SPG 2503N06892W 150
528 =
;

[Javlin]

check out the 11am heading," wobbles westward" are you kidding me.
The storm has been moving west all morning.

That depends on what you define as the "storm". That weak vortex moving westward isn't the storm. Look at the convection to the east, it's barely moving. Maybe a little westward drift. That's the storm. The current LLC may well dissipate without any support. Look for a reformation near the convection if the shear doesn't let off soon.

The NHC has the loc 27.5N 73.1W and that is the naked swirl but I did notice that there is a cloud mass that is not moving and was wondering is there another vortice??

[Lowpressure]

I get the distinct feeling that no one really knows at this point, not even the NHC. Danny is not reacting normally and the synoptic setup is complex to say the least.

[littlevince]

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 271553
AF307 0505A DANNY HDOB 18 20090827
154400 2840N 07127W 7793 02293 0150 +143 -051 120035 035 036 003 00
154430 2842N 07129W 7991 02074 0163 +145 -036 119039 039 037 004 00
154500 2844N 07130W 8185 01868 0165 +148 -017 120039 041 034 003 00
154530 2846N 07131W 8410 01633 0164 +158 -005 121036 038 034 004 00
154600 2847N 07132W 8638 01405 0161 +171 -001 121041 044 033 004 00
154630 2849N 07133W 8857 01188 0169 +178 +012 118045 046 035 004 00
154700 2851N 07134W 9067 00988 0161 +187 +023 114042 044 037 007 00
154730 2852N 07135W 9239 00809 0146 +190 +034 111043 045 036 005 00
154800 2854N 07136W 9458 00602 0136 +205 +043 110044 045 036 005 00
154830 2856N 07137W 9586 00474 0125 +215 +051 107045 046 037 003 00
154900 2857N 07138W 9594 00468 0124 +215 +058 107047 048 037 004 00
154930 2859N 07139W 9593 00469 0125 +218 +066 107050 051 035 004 00
155000 2900N 07140W 9595 00467 0125 +216 +073 107049 050 037 004 00
155030 2902N 07141W 9595 00468 0126 +214 +078 108049 049 038 005 00
155100 2904N 07142W 9594 00470 0127 +215 +082 106049 051 038 003 00
155130 2905N 07143W 9592 00472 0128 +215 +086 107048 050 038 003 00
155200 2907N 07144W 9597 00467 0128 +216 +090 107046 047 037 002 00
155230 2908N 07145W 9597 00467 0128 +216 +094 107047 048 037 004 00
155300 2910N 07146W 9591 00474 0127 +218 +097 105045 048 036 001 00
155330 2911N 07147W 9596 00469 0127 +219 +101 107045 046 036 002 03
$$

[artist]

At 15:44:00Z (first observation), the observation was 440 miles (709 km) between the NE and ENE (56°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
At 15:53:30Z (last observation), the observation was 445 miles (716 km) to the NE (50°) from Nassau, Bahamas.

[UpTheCreek]

The way that it is going, it sure does seem like it to me.

I've been following this for some time now and here's my opinion from reading these experts take on it. If it continues to meander west BEFORE it can all consolidate, then yes, it has a shot at affecting us once it does strengthen. Or it may not consolidate and get stronger at all.......or it may pull itself together sooner, rather than later, and it may just follow NHC's track as planned. Lots of factors, lots of possible scenarios. Just wait and see. Either way, if we get a storm from this, I don't think it's going to amount to a whole heck of a lot. Again, I'm purely an amateur and take what I say with a HUGE grain of salt!