ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Stormcenter]

And shows no signs of changing anytime soon.

12Z GFS recurves 94L...and several other systems behind it.....

The synoptic setup is still pointing at recurve for these Cape Verde systems, good news.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150l.gif

[otowntiger]

Very large system

Large, yes.
Developing? No.
Impressive? No.
Messy? Yes!!!

[gatorcane]

IMO, throw the previous Central Atlantic recurve models out the window. 94L is moving faster and due W for the next few days. The Central Atlantic weakness may be strong enough to allow 94L to gain latitude but does not appear enough to send 94L fishing for now!

great, that is not what we want to see --- a system moving west like that with no recurve scenario . Hopefully it just dies.

[tolakram]

They have that at 15N, while it's currently at 10 and appears to be dropping lower. ???

Best Track:

AL, 94, 2009082812, , BEST, 0, 105N, 360W,...

[Blown Away]

They have that at 15N, while it's currently at 10 and appears to be dropping lower. ???

That's a 72 hour forecast position.

[StormClouds63]

How much shear and dry air ahead for 94L? ... Starting to have doubts as well for further significant development. It is a large area, but if anything looking less organized. I wouldn't worry with the models since it's not developing anytime soon.

[cycloneye]

28/1745 UTC 10.2N 37.9W TOO WEAK 94L -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[RL3AO]

If it says weak, it will likely continue on a westward course and might be able to get things going when it approaches the islands in a week or so.

[HURAKAN]

Center should form closer to the area of convection

[cycloneye]

I only post the model runs for formality,but we know that until there is a true LLC and the system developing,the models are wacked.

492
WHXX01 KWBC 281826
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1826 UTC FRI AUG 28 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942009) 20090828 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090828 1800 090829 0600 090829 1800 090830 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.0N 36.0W 11.6N 38.1W 12.7N 40.7W 13.5N 43.2W
BAMD 11.0N 36.0W 11.4N 38.2W 12.3N 40.4W 13.2N 42.6W
BAMM 11.0N 36.0W 11.5N 38.2W 12.4N 40.6W 13.4N 42.8W
LBAR 11.0N 36.0W 11.5N 39.3W 12.3N 42.7W 13.4N 46.1W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 47KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090830 1800 090831 1800 090901 1800 090902 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.9N 46.2W 13.9N 51.0W 13.9N 54.7W 13.9N 57.7W
BAMD 14.2N 44.4W 15.7N 46.9W 16.4N 48.6W 17.0N 50.8W
BAMM 14.1N 44.9W 15.1N 47.7W 15.4N 49.7W 15.9N 51.8W
LBAR 14.4N 49.3W 15.8N 54.3W 15.9N 57.0W 16.5N 57.9W
SHIP 55KTS 67KTS 77KTS 83KTS
DSHP 55KTS 67KTS 77KTS 83KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.0N LONCUR = 36.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 19KT
LATM12 = 10.5N LONM12 = 32.0W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 19KT
LATM24 = 10.2N LONM24 = 28.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[canes04]

TD tomorrow night, TS on Sunday and a hurricane on Tuesday.
all bets will be taken

[x-y-no]

How much shear and dry air ahead for 94L? ... Starting to have doubts as well for further significant development. It is a large area, but if anything looking less organized. I wouldn't worry with the models since it's not developing anytime soon.

Well based on the CIMSS SAL analysis it doesn't look like dry air is much of a problem for it.

[cycloneye]

If it says weak, it will likely continue on a westward course and might be able to get things going when it approaches the islands in a week or so.

And that is what I am mostly worried about,comming from someone who lives in the NE Caribbean.

[Derek Ortt]

I see no turning at all near where the "center" is initalized. It is 1 full degree too far north. Of course, it may reform there

[cycloneye]

18 UTC Best Track

AL, 94, 2009082818, , BEST, 0, 110N, 360W, 25, 1010, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[Derek Ortt]

If it says weak, it will likely continue on a westward course and might be able to get things going when it approaches the islands in a week or so.

it shouldn't take a week to reach the islands. It could be there in about 4 days if it stays at the low latitude

However, this needs to speed up if it wants to develop... and speed up by about 5-8KT to catch up with the convection

[gatorcane]

ECMWF 12Z out shortly.

[gatorcane]

ECMWF 12Z out shortly.

Massive trough now see along eastern CONUS at 240 hours, that would be a shoe-in for a CONUS miss.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9082812!!/

[HURAKAN]

In the last 9 hours

[micktooth]