ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Sanibel]

The Florida perma-trough seems to be part of the pattern. We'll see if the African wave beats it like Bill did.


Don't get anxious gatorcane. We aren't in September yet.

[gatorcane]

The Florida perma-trough seems to be part of the pattern. We'll see if the African wave beats it like Bill did.


Don't get anxious gatorcane. We aren't in September yet.

I checked the global models and there really is not much to speak of through the next 240 hours. The ECMWF shows nada in the Atlantic through Sept 8th. Still there is quite a bit of time left and certainly things can change.
About the only thing is 94L and it has a pretty low chance of development. Maybe by later on next week it can revive, we'll see. Since there is nothing else out there and I'd like to track something, I'll keep watching 94L.

The EPAC is cranking though with a couple of more systems on the way maybe over the next 10 days, according to ECMWF.

[Sanibel]

Agree. Nothing to watch but 94L (and Africa). See if 94L gets a pulse after 45W in warmer SST's. Dry seas ahead:

[cycloneye]

Posible fix on 94L next tuesday (If Necessary)

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT SAT 29 AUGUST 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 30/1100Z TO 31/1100Z AUGUST 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-093

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUT LOOK: POSSIBLE FIXES
NEAR 18N 54W BEGINNING AT 01/1800Z.

[Derek Ortt]

the MM5 did show some development of this as we move farther west. Will have to monitor this in 2-3 days

[jinftl]

Question....what are the odds that down the road this system develops......what are conditions like, say west of 60W (or even 70W down the road)? A non-developed 94L is more likely to head west than if she had intensified at this stage of the game.

[Sanibel]

I replayed the African satellite loop. It appears 94L was torn open by a violent easterly shear that pushed the promising convection off the center, elongated and opened up the wave, and then subjected it to dry air. Unusual for the Cape verde belt at this time - as are ULL's swirling in the Gulf with troughs.

[gatorcane]

the MM5 did show some development of this as we move farther west. Will have to monitor this in 2-3 days

I agree. Probably my mid this week or so it could possibly revive, we'll see. Could be code yellow for several days then back to orange who knows. Probably good idea to keep it code yellow for the next few days though. Development until then looks pretty bleak.

[deltadog03]

MJO is not really favorable right now either.

[cycloneye]

For sure 94L is not dead.

[cycloneye]

Hey peeps,I am felling like I am alone posting here Come and discuss about this system.

Plenty of moist air in the area.

[CrazyC83]

A lot more attention now has shifted to the Pacific...

[Cookie]

Hey peeps,I am felling like I am alone posting here Come and discuss about this system.

Plenty of moist air in the area.

very nice image their mate nice find

[Cuber]

A lot more attention now has shifted to the Pacific...

That maybe true but 94L is going to impact Cycloneye eventually

We are with you "C" ... just be patient with us CONUSers

[fasterdisaster]

I still see this developing.

[StormClouds63]

I really think 94L is just about done. Erika doesn't seem to be ready for her debut just yet.

So we're at 4/1/1 as August ends. First few days of September look reasonably safe.

Those large, impressive waves moving off the African coast just have not held together (except for Bill). I know there's another soon to exit, but I'm now skeptical of development.

Predicted 10/5/2 at the start of the season, so I'll have to stick with those numbers, but looking more and more like 7/3/1 when all is said is done. Shear, dry air, strong westerlies, and the recurve pattern all indicate below-average season.

The troughs have started ... we're expected to reach mid-60's in the evenings next week here in SW LA. Will stay alert for close-to-home development, but the pattern in 2009 looks more and more like 2006.

[caribsue]

Hey Cycloneye

Just when they thought it was all over....Hmmmmmz..... still watching here in Barbados

[cycloneye]

Well,nobody cares about 94L,but 12z CMC makes it a hurricane and moves it close to the islands.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

Hey Cycloneye

Just when they thought it was all over....Hmmmmmz..... still watching here in Barbados

Exactly,keep watching how 94L tracks.

[Sambucol]

Well,nobody cares about 94L,but 12z CMC makes it a hurricane and moves it close to the islands.

I'm watching. After Ike last year, I'm watching anything that could even remotely have a chance, no matter how slim, to enter the GOM.