ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[jlauderdal]

Look at that nice anticyclonic flow aloft.

we are on yellow alert and ortt is on crow alert if this thing develops

[Hurricaneman]

My eyes may be decieving me but it looks like there might be a little bit of north to the west movement

[Blown Away]

Yep though the ridge is breaking down by the time this gets close to the Bahamas...however the ridge looks a good deal stronger on this run from the ECM, such a system would really need to be watched if that is correct.

I just can't see 94L taking 240 hours (10 days) to get just north of Hispaniola.

[Typhoon_Willie]

If my amatuer eyes are correct it does look a bit better. I am also noting a upper level low to the north that is moving SE. I wonder if this will help to provide a poleward outflow channel for this system?

[cycloneye]

It has to make a sharp NW turn from now to pass north of 15N-50W the benchmark for the NE Caribbean islands.

[KWT]

I can see why your saying that hurricaneman, though that could be simply because the way the convection is flaring up again and expanding northwards. Still you could be right about it since there is more convection with it now.

[funster]

Are there two ULLs to the north of 94L? - one moving southeast and one moving southwest.

[Sanibel]

If you eye the general surface bands as one mass they are still moving west.

[Derek Ortt]

Look at that nice anticyclonic flow aloft.

we are on yellow alert and ortt is on crow alert if this thing develops

has to develop by 0Z Monday for me to have to wear the dunce

[Stormcenter]

Way too much energy is being spent on 94.

[Derek Ortt]

it doesn't have to make a sharp turn at all. The center just has to consolidate along the northern edge of the vorticity as the models indicate it will

[KWT]

This still looks like being a fairly slow developer but it does seem to have improved somewhat in the last 6-12hrs with regards to the convection and I agree with Sanibel, there does seem to be more of curvature as well with it.

Derek, do you think chance of development have improved?

[Typhoon_Willie]

One thing would seem for certain right now is that some portion ot the islands are going to get some rain and wind out of this system.

[Derek Ortt]

a little bit. However, I am watching closer to 15N for development, not 10N

[jlauderdal]

Look at that nice anticyclonic flow aloft.

we are on yellow alert and ortt is on crow alert if this thing develops

has to develop by 0Z Monday for me to have to wear the dunce

fair enough, i say you have a 70% chance, crow or dunce your choice, im still looking good for it making past 80 and never reaching hurricane status

[KWT]

a little bit. However, I am watching closer to 15N for development, not 10N

Yeah I can see why your watching that area, I personally think if any center does form it wil lbe north of where we are watching, that seems to be a typical thing when a center forms. I'm watching around 13N, I don't think it'll be quite as far north as 14-15N given there is clearly fairly strong winds from the east coming round on the northern side.

[KWT]

I'm sure 4 years ago many people said that about Ex-TD10...we all know what happened with that one, anything like this needs watching even if it does do nothing.

[southerngale]

Way too much energy is being spent on 94.

Whose energy? Your energy? Your last 18 posts have been in 94L threads. Take a breather from it if you need to.

[fasterdisaster]

I personally see the center developing at 12-12.5N.

[Typhoon_Willie]

I would agree with you fasterdisaster it seems (and I repeat seems) to be around 12.5 degrees north latitude.