ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[HURAKAN]

BT vs D

[cycloneye]

There was some commentary earlier that it was starting to move WNW but according to the 00 UTC BAMS,it is still moving west at 270 degrees at 14 kts.

LATCUR = 10.7N LONCUR = 43.4W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 14KT

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Aric Dunn]

not quite sure I understand that outlook. To me, this appears somewhat better organized structurally today

yeah for sure..

but I imagine its because the convection has not maintained long enough.. by 2am if the trend continues and convection is still present then orange will likely be there.. and red in the morning there after if it continues after that.

[otowntiger]

ehhh. Not too impressed still. It is hanging in there and like everyone says the twisting may be little more pronounced, but there is just about no convection with this thing and what little is there is scattered like pimples on the face of a teenaged boy.

[jinftl]

Current position:
00 GMT 08/30/09 10.7N 43.4W

Compare current position to where the model below says the latitude would be at approx the same longitude
12Z 13.1N 43.3W 317./11.5

Current position estimate is west of any of the latest model runs.....it is off course each one of these models already

18z GFDL is in the fish camp.

WHXX04 KWBC 292316
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 94L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 29
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.0 42.0 270./14.0
6 12.2 42.5 339./13.6
12 13.1 43.3 317./11.5
18 13.9 44.3 307./13.2
24 14.7 45.7 302./15.2
30 15.4 47.1 295./15.1
36 16.0 48.0 305./10.6
42 16.7 48.8 311./10.4
48 17.1 49.6 295./ 8.4
54 17.5 50.1 303./ 6.6
60 18.1 50.8 316./ 8.8
66 18.5 51.5 301./ 8.1
72 18.9 52.3 296./ 8.7
78 19.6 52.9 320./ 8.8
84 20.2 53.7 306./ 9.5
90 20.6 54.6 292./ 9.2
96 21.2 55.4 304./10.0
102 21.6 56.3 295./ 9.3
108 21.9 57.1 293./ 8.0
114 22.5 57.7 317./ 7.6
120 23.0 58.4 306./ 8.8
126 23.6 58.7 332./ 6.7

[KWT]

I think BT looks far more likely to be correct, Qscat would have shown something if the SSD position was correct.

[expat2carib]

Mhhhhhhhh. Getting my attention again

[gatorcane]

Looks more organized and also I see a more WNW movement now taking shape. I think its probably worthy of code orange again (maybe red by this time tomorrow). My guess is the NHC doesn't want to go from orange to yellow to orange in one day. I say if it keeps this up it will be code orange next advisory. They likely want to let it marinate some this evening.

One thing is for sure, if it gets going more quickly its likely to go more NW and east of the islands in responsive to a ULL in the Central Atlantic. On the other hand if it stays weaker its likely going more west. Split the difference and you get a path just NE of the Leewards or so...(maybe 100 miles???). Interesting days ahead maybe. I still think right of the islands by 200 miles or so....that ULL is huge.

The ULL is seen here:

[abajan]

This loop looks mighty impressive to me. Convection may not be that great now (it will probably flare overnight, though) but the circulation is beginning to get its act together. Thankfully, that loop also seems to show that the long predicted west north-westerly turn has started.

[Blown Away]

These models have been crazy with 94L. Amazing they almost have 94L as a major hurricane.

[gatorcane]

This is about the area Bill started heading more WNW ...but 94L is alot more shallow. It should get further west than Bill you would think.

[Evil Jeremy]

This is about the area Bill started heading more WNW ...but 94L is alot more shallow. It should get further west than Bill you would think.

Not to mention that 94L is a couple degrees south of where Bill was at this point I think.

[caribsue]

Hope you and the others are right my fellow countryman.... Lets hope that that old Bajan adage is true once again and we are spared.

[jinftl]

Bill was about 3 deg latitude further north than 94L at a comparable longitude....plus he was already a hurricane and moving wnw

AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1160 MILES
...1870 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

BILL IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 22 MPH...35
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

This is about the area Bill started heading more WNW ...but 94L is alot more shallow. It should get further west than Bill you would think.

[gatorcane]

Surprised nobody posted the UKMET -- just NE of the islands:

[gatorcane]

The ECMWF and UKMET are both just NE of the islands, but the UKMET looks a bit quicker. That latest ECMWF bends it more back west once north of Puerto Rico and steers it towards the SE Bahamas. Curious what the 00Z ECMWF shows.

[funster]

We certainly don't need a big storm now with the recession and a terrible flu season on the way. I hope 94L fizzles. The northeast can not deal with wind because of how soggy the soil is. Thousands and thousands of trees would fail.

[D3m3NT3DVoRT3X]

[abajan]

Hope you and the others are right my fellow countryman.... Lets hope that that old Bajan adage is true once again and we are spared.

If you're referring to "God is a Bajan", I think it's one of the most ridiculous sayings. He's no more a Bajan than he is a Brazilian, Canadian, Somalian or American. We on this rock have become way too complacent about storms and other natural disasters.

One would've thought that Hurricane Ivan which passed fairly far to our south would have been the wake up call that they don't all go north. I can distinctly remember Selma, the weather presenter, a couple nights before stating with an almost godlike degree of certainty, that it would pass to our north! Of course, she was taking her cue from the Met Office which didn't seem to be taking the situation too seriously.