ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[cycloneye]

There are two camps,the fish ones and the more west or Carribbean threat ones.Which camp will win?

[deltadog03]

I would like to see the hwrf and gfdl start there model runs correctly first before I buy into them. My guess is something close to the bam models.

[wxman57]

Local Met here in West Palm Beach is talking about a "Tropical Wave" for Wednesday and Thursday. Could it be 94L?
Seems kind of quick to me but I don't see anything else between 94L and here except a ULL.
Any thoughts out there??

By Wednesday it'll still be east of the Caribbean (or near the eastern Caribbean). Nowhere near FL.

[Sanibel]

CMC develops a ridge that looks like it sends a hurricane north of the Antilles towards Florida.


GFS loses it as a wave headed in sharp recurve to nowhere's land in the Atlantic.

[Blown Away]

I would like to see the hwrf and gfdl start there model runs correctly first before I buy into them. My guess is something close to the bam models.

Any chance 94L makes it to SFL or is there to much weakness in the ridge?

[gatorcane]

The 00Z GFS rolling in is hopelessly lost, looks like due N movement losing it. Huh?

[deltadog03]

Same old typical crap from GFS.

[hurricanetrack]

Again, looking at the 850 vort charts so far, it still strings it out and sends some energy northward and some westward. Who knows? Maybe that is what will happen and this will never really get off the ground. Isn't it so much better when we see a "Bill-esque" low out there that is as much as sure thing as you can get? These types are frustrating. It does look to be moving more WNW than due west now.

[cycloneye]

This is the 00z surface analysis by tafb that has the low center almost at 45W.You can also notice the ridge to the north is fairly strong.

[hurricanetrack]

Nicely done there! You put in to graphical pictures what I was alluding to. Most excellent. So I guess then that the GFS dependent models would be bull hockey too? So far they seem to yank it north even as a nice 5H ridge seems to build right over the central Atlantic.

[Blown Away]

Convection starting to build/consolidate near the circulation center again. Last night 94L looked good in the early evening and then the convection died down overnight. IMO, I think our invest is on its way to becoming a TD within 36 hours and Erika in a few days. The WNW movement is very obvious now and some models have 94L missing the Caribbean, but those models have 94L moving almost NNW very soon and I just don't see that happening. I think 94L will move through the Hebert Box and skim the NE Caribbean. 94L has been a fun system to follow, full of surprises. IMO, Code Orange at 2am.

[gatorcane]

Nicely done there! You put in to graphical pictures what I was alluding to. Most excellent. So I guess then that the GFS dependent models would be bull hockey too? So far they seem to yank it north even as a nice 5H ridge seems to build right over the central Atlantic.

Well not quite. There is a big ULL sitting over the Central Atlantic at the moment. Still, low-level easterly flow is pronounced around the lattitude 94L is at.

[Blown Away]

The 00Z GFS rolling in is hopelessly lost, looks like due N movement losing it. Huh?

Due N rate now is not going to happen. Gator check your pm.

[cycloneye]

Code Orange at 2am

Hmmm,I said Orange at 2 PM but didnt happened so I ate some crow.I will not predict at 2 AM.

[blp]

There are two camps,the fish ones and the more west or Carribbean threat ones.Which camp will win?

The fish camp are the 18Z runs that are already off the mark because it is already further west. Interesting to see what the 00Z ones show, will they come closer to the BAM runs. I did notice that most do show some kind of a bend back towards the west at the end.

[Gustywind]

Latest...Looking good

[fci]

Local Met here in West Palm Beach is talking about a "Tropical Wave" for Wednesday and Thursday. Could it be 94L?
Seems kind of quick to me but I don't see anything else between 94L and here except a ULL.
Any thoughts out there??

By Wednesday it'll still be east of the Caribbean (or near the eastern Caribbean). Nowhere near FL.

Thanks wxman for confirming what I thought.
Either they do very poor math regarding forward speed or there is a phanthom tropical wave out there!

[ROCK]

what was the last best track when the BAMMS were run? is 94L around 11n now or more like 10.5N.....hard to tell from infared....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

[gatorcane]

Here is someting to think about. Check out the shear between where it is now and the Caribbean. It's screaming at at about 40 to 50K out of the SW. I'm wondering if that is why the GFS is losing this system. Anyway, right now it has an anticyclone over it, which would mean good for development.

If that shear hangs around its toast. Convection is pretty disorganized looking at the latest IR, seems to be on a down trend again.

The updates from NHC later tonight may mention this increased shear and indicate "conditions are becoming unfavorable for development..." and keep it code yellow. I could easily see that for the 8AM update tomorrow, or later tonight....I think it will be code yellow even tomorrow when we all wake up.

[floridasun78]

let see if you right gatorcane this near peak of season