ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

['CaneFreak]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N45W TO 8N49W WITH AN
ASSOCIATED 1007 MB SURFACE LOW CENTER NEAR 11N48W. THE WAVE IS
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ELONGATED
CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS CONCENTRATED
AROUND THE LOW CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS MAINLY TO THE NW OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 14N-18N
BETWEEN 47W-49W..AND TO THE W OF LOW CENTER FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN
48W-54W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HRS.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

Thanks for posting that!!! There you have it folks...the circulation is still WELL to the SOUTH...

[paintplaye]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N45W TO 8N49W WITH AN
ASSOCIATED 1007 MB SURFACE LOW CENTER NEAR 11N48W. THE WAVE IS
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ELONGATED
CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS CONCENTRATED
AROUND THE LOW CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS MAINLY TO THE NW OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 14N-18N
BETWEEN 47W-49W..AND TO THE W OF LOW CENTER FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN
48W-54W. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HRS.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/hw3.php? ... hwvmetric=

Thanks for posting that!!! There you have it folks...the circulation is still WELL to the SOUTH...

And moving to the west. These systems at this stage are always hard to track.

[wxman57]

57,TD at 11 based on the pass or they will wait for a burst of convection?

Nope. Not without decent convection. I wasn't arguing for classification when comparing it to Danny, just saying that those who classify these systems are very inconsistent in what's named and what isn't. I really think that classification should be up to a separate agency, one completely removed from from those making the forecasts. If strong convection near the center is a requirement, then how was Danny classified as a TS for over 36 hours with no significant convection within 100 miles of its center?

Take the politics out of the naming/classification and let the forecasters (including me) deal with whatever is determined to be there. Probably never happen, though.

[george_r_1961]

Its going to be moving thru 30-40 kt of shear tommorow. And a strong front will be blasting off the east coast, bringing with it high shear over the western atlantic.

This thing is toast in my opinion. Less than a 10 percent chance of development and a near zero chance of this making it to the CONUS if it does ramp up.

If im missing something here someone please help me.

[Derek Ortt]

Corey is a good meteorologist. Just think she is focusing on the eddy (and remember that position is from 6 hours ago, not the present time) and not the overall cyclonic envelope

['CaneFreak]

Its going to be moving thru 30-40 kt of shear tommorow. And a strong front will be blasting off the east coast, bringing with it high shear over the western atlantic.

This thing is toast in my opinion. Less than a 10 percent chance of development and a near zero chance of this making it to the CONUS if it does ramp up.

If im missing something here someone please help me.

Nah...those upper lows are well to the north...they are helping to ventilate the system right now...

[jinftl]

How can folks feel so confident (just as I am not saying I am forecasting a west turn late next weekend) that this set-up will result in a fish and/or shear apart 94L: the well-publicized trough will be moving offshore the east coast of the U.S. by the end of next weekend. At that time, 94L will be at the longitude of puerto rico/hispanola plus or minus, probably too far away from the trough to feel its' effects. But what it will be is in a location to begin to feel the effect of the building ridge that will follow, turning it west.

Timing is everything with this system as with all systems.....there is no way that anything can be ruled out given how subtle changes in speed, location, strength lead to magnified (in scope) results down the road. A done deal? No way. A U.S. threat? Way too early to say.

Its going to be moving thru 30-40 kt of shear tommorow. And a strong front will be blasting off the east coast, bringing with it high shear over the western atlantic.

This thing is toast in my opinion. Less than a 10 percent chance of development and a near zero chance of this making it to the CONUS if it does ramp up.

If im missing something here someone please help me.

[cycloneye]

SSD Dvorak

0/2345 UTC 12.4N 48.4W T1.0/1.5 94L -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

['CaneFreak]

SSD Dvorak

0/2345 UTC 12.4N 48.4W T1.0/1.5 94L -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

That is EXACTLY where I would place it...

[otowntiger]

Maybe its just me, but this thing continues to be far from impressive. Still just a swirl of clouds with very little thunderstorm activity. Now even Ortt seems to think it will become a hurricane and wxman57 is not poo pooing it. But I really think if it were to develop it would be firing up some convective activity. What am I missing?

[Blown Away]

Maybe its just me, but this thing continues to be far from impressive. Still just a swirl of clouds with very little thunderstorm activity. Now even Ortt seems to think it will become a hurricane and wxman57 is not poo pooing it. But I really think if it were to develop it would be firing up some convective activity. What am I missing?

I'm pretty sure it's just you!

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Best Track

AL, 94, 2009083100, , BEST, 0, 126N, 483W, 25, 1007, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[otowntiger]

Maybe its just me, but this thing continues to be far from impressive. Still just a swirl of clouds with very little thunderstorm activity. Now even Ortt seems to think it will become a hurricane and wxman57 is not poo pooing it. But I really think if it were to develop it would be firing up some convective activity. What am I missing?

I'm pretty sure it's just you!

Thanks for the objective and informative reply!

[Derek Ortt]

SSD Dvorak

0/2345 UTC 12.4N 48.4W T1.0/1.5 94L -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

please don't just highlight the position. There is an even more important piece of information. The data T number has been lowered. This may have more implications on the motion, besides the current position

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Bam Models

WHXX01 KWBC 310025
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0025 UTC MON AUG 31 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942009) 20090831 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090831 0000 090831 1200 090901 0000 090901 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.6N 48.3W 14.1N 50.9W 15.5N 53.1W 16.6N 55.0W
BAMD 12.6N 48.3W 13.7N 50.5W 14.7N 52.6W 15.4N 54.4W
BAMM 12.6N 48.3W 13.7N 50.6W 14.7N 52.6W 15.3N 54.3W
LBAR 12.6N 48.3W 13.7N 50.4W 14.7N 52.5W 15.2N 54.5W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090902 0000 090903 0000 090904 0000 090905 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.5N 56.6W 18.9N 59.3W 19.8N 62.1W 20.9N 65.0W
BAMD 15.8N 55.9W 16.5N 58.9W 17.5N 62.2W 19.0N 65.1W
BAMM 15.9N 55.6W 16.5N 58.1W 17.2N 60.9W 17.8N 63.9W
LBAR 15.6N 56.5W 15.9N 60.5W 17.1N 64.7W 18.6N 67.5W
SHIP 52KTS 66KTS 73KTS 78KTS
DSHP 52KTS 66KTS 73KTS 78KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.6N LONCUR = 48.3W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 11.8N LONM12 = 46.3W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 10.8N LONM24 = 43.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[lonelymike]

Breaking News Update:

From his hideout in the swamps of Southern Louisiana Bob Breck is prediciting that this system will not affect the New Orleans Area. The POS model is forecasting this system to stay well clear of the New Orleans area. Bob couldn't be more specific as he could hear the tracking hounds in the distance and has to move but he promised to send a pigeon as soon as he is able. Stay tuned for more breaking updates

[cycloneye]

Speaking of motion,is moving 290 degrees at 10kts,more slower than before.

LATCUR = 12.6N LONCUR = 48.3W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 10KT

[funster]

I really think that classification should be up to a separate agency, one completely removed from from those making the forecasts.

A separate agency to classify tropical storms and hurricanes? That would be awesome and hilarious if the agencies started bickering. I second the idea.

[otowntiger]

SSD Dvorak

0/2345 UTC 12.4N 48.4W T1.0/1.5 94L -- Atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

please don't just highlight the position. There is an even more important piece of information. The data T number has been lowered. This may have more implications on the motion, besides the current position

If I'm not mistaken that means it's satellite presentation is less impressive, right? I mean structurally its seems to be sorta ok, but guys, convection wise, it pretty much sucks and that continues to be a good thing for anyone potentially in harms way. That is of course it doesn't suddenly and surprisingly decide to become something besides the cloud swirl that it is.

[Blown Away]

Maybe its just me, but this thing continues to be far from impressive. Still just a swirl of clouds with very little thunderstorm activity. Now even Ortt seems to think it will become a hurricane and wxman57 is not poo pooing it. But I really think if it were to develop it would be firing up some convective activity. What am I missing?

I'm pretty sure it's just you!

Thanks for the objective and informative reply!

You are entitled to your opinion, but how much more information do you need? NHC says >50%, the T #'s are up, decent model support, improving overall structure and modest convection. Is this a hurricane, no, has the system been improving over the past 24 hours, yes.