ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Aric Dunn]

00 UTC Best Track

AL, 94, 2009083100, , BEST, 0, 126N, 483W, 25, 1007, DB

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

ok well here is yet another loop showing Banding trough 14N which means there cant be a center there... lol

12 to 13N .. at some point it will move up to 14 N but it is south of 14 N as of right and is moving 280 or so ..
rough estimate is
12.3N 48.1 W

also buoy 4104 has a ene wind and if the center at 14N a west of 46 ene winds would not make sense
[img][/img]

[otowntiger]

Blownaway:

Thanks. I know what you're talking about, but what I'm interested in is what is inhibiting development in terms of convection. We all know it isn't going to do a darn thing as long as convection is virtually absent. Besides Derek just posted that the T numbers are down, which doesn't surprise me based on what I'm seeing

[Blown Away]

very significant ridge that the nogaps is building in at the end of the run. with the trough over the ohio valley lifting out and ridge building west.. next few runs of the nogaps are going to be interesting..

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 2009083018

It appears 94L may be in the general area of N of Hispaniola next Saturday, which is the same time the EC trough will be lifting out. Will there be enough weakness left to recurve 94L or will it get trapped under a building ridge?

[North Naples]

What is the difference between the SSD Dvorak position and Best Track position? Are these positions issued by different agencies?

[Frank P]

Breaking News Update:

From his hideout in the swamps of Southern Louisiana Bob Breck is prediciting that this system will not affect the New Orleans Area. The POS model is forecasting this system to stay well clear of the New Orleans area. Bob couldn't be more specific as he could hear the tracking hounds in the distance and has to move but he promised to send a pigeon as soon as he is able. Stay tuned for more breaking updates

Yeah, and I remember Breck saying Katina would NEVER make it into the Gulf... he was probably using the same pigeons and tracking hounds, those that survived... hehe

[otowntiger]

[/b]
[/quote]


Pretty significant northern shift there ain't it? By the BAM suite, I mean.

[Kingarabian]

Well so far the convection is blow average... If they rush this, then its the second Danny.

[rrm]

any chance this gets in the gom?

[hurricanetrack]

Thermodynamics are just not there right now. Anyone disagree? It is a large system though but very dry overall. My goodness, it sure is causing an uproar.

As for a separate agency classifying systems? We have one in State College, PA. There are plenty of times when Joe Bastardi will say that such and such is a tropical cyclone before the government declares it as such. Plenty of times when he says that a tropical cyclone is NOT a tropical cyclone even when the government says it is.

[Blown Away]

Blownaway:

Thanks. I know what you're talking about, but what I'm interested in is what is inhibiting development in terms of convection. We all know it isn't going to do a darn thing as long as convection is virtually absent. Besides Derek just posted that the T numbers are down, which doesn't surprise me based on what I'm seeing

I have been away from the computer since last night and when I saw 94L this evening I could see a significant improvement since last night, that's what I was referring to. Just missed the latest T #'s ! Convection on the decrease but I don't think 94L will have a problem refiring tonight. I was not trying to be a smart alec!! All is good!!

[ray18]

^ I am wondering the same thing. What chance do you guys think this has of entering the Gulf?

[MGC]

Container ship MSC Kenya located near 12.6N, 52.5W is reporting a pressure of 1005mb with a east southeast wind at 24 KTS. This is a German flaged ship so the above report should be accurate. There are a couple of ships to the north of the Kenya and they are reporting pressures in the 1011-1012 mb range. Information courtesy of sailwx.info.......MGC

[Evil Jeremy]

any chance this gets in the gom?

^ I am wondering the same thing. What chance do you guys think this has of entering the Gulf?

Anything can happen in the tropics. Is it likely? Not at the moment. Oh, and welcome to the realm Ray.

['CaneFreak]

Thermodynamics are just not there right now. Anyone disagree? It is a large system though but very dry overall. My goodness, it sure is causing an uproar.

As for a separate agency classifying systems? We have one in State College, PA. There are plenty of times when Joe Bastardi will say that such and such is a tropical cyclone before the government declares it as such. Plenty of times when he says that a tropical cyclone is NOT a tropical cyclone even when the government says it is.

I agree....its funny because not a single person has noticed that there are stratocumulus clouds just to the north of this system...there is plenty of research out there right now that suggests that mid-level humidities need to be > 75 % in order for anything to survive in the tropics...it just has to be moist...there can't be any dry air around...

In fact, I believe that is the main reason that Jimena is taking off right now...its in a very moist environment with favorable UL winds...

[Night Tide]

I'm guessing most people won't answer about a possible Gulf hit this early on, because they don't want to end up eating crow.

I really doubt it will come here, but that's just me.

[Gustywind]

That circle is very big.

254
ABNT20 KNHC 302331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE
DECREASED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS
A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE
LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BRENNAN

humm and it's an euphemisma Cycloneye

[Derek Ortt]

the dry air just cannot penetrate the core. Dry air outside may lead to concentric rainbands and repeated EWRCs (see Bill)

I'll have to check my thesis again to see what the 1998-2005 mean environmental RH is for intensifying TCs

[Blown Away]

[/b]

Pretty significant northern shift there ain't it? By the BAM suite, I mean.[/quote]



Bams did shift a little N, but I think the models are slowly starting to agree on a track skirting or just N of the NE Caribbean.

[tgenius]

Derek.. what part of South Miami are you at? I live in West Kendall.

[cycloneye]

Derek,what are the implications on the slowdown to 10kts?