ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Derek Ortt]

To be fair though Derek it the model has shown very high shear near this system for quite some runs so its something wrong with just the hurricane models, the GFS doesn't do anything with this system as well downstream due to the shear levels (its had constantly 20-30kts in this region from this time through till about Friday.

SHIPS gets it shear right from the GFS. Therefore, it is a GFS problem

[x-y-no]

Pressure at the buoy just west of the center has risen another 1/2 millibar in the past hour, and still has a NE wind 5 kts. Not a sign of a developing system.

It could be a broad LLC and the buoy is actually now to the east of the actual center. I don't think they have nailed down the exact position of the center or how large it is if one even exists like you point out!

NE winds would be pretty strange if the buoy were east of the center.

I'm inclined to think that there's still some lower pressure down at the south end of this thing. But that should fade away and pressure at the north end should drop if this northern convection burst continues.

[tpr1967]

This bouy obs appears to be under some broad circ. But like WXman said earlier pressure has been rising at that bouy tyhe past several hours. So does n't appear to be strengthing at the surface.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41040

[Sanibel]

Doesn't look good. The system needs to bring that big elongation of the surface spiral to the SW back into synch. It won't do that unless it powers up but there's a big ULL downstream that doesn't look conducive to development. Danny struggled in this area too. Nothing to do but see if it overpowers its surroundings and forms.

[Aric Dunn]

The two vorts are near 13.5 north 54W and 15.1 N 52W


overall center of broad turning.. 14.5N 53.5W motion generally W but has a slight wnw motion over the last 6 hours of about 280 or so..

based on buoy,satellite

[Sanibel]

Storm is telling you I have potential:

[KWT]

If there wasn't shear coming onto it from the west then this would very likely be a depression based on that presentation, convection still very intense indeed.

[tpr1967]

Latest quikscat shows just a wave.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_0.html

[Sanibel]

The sweep missed the center.


This is a TD. I guess they are denying it on structure and appearance.

[Derek Ortt]

thats not a true wave. That is a cusp given the SW winds

[Aric Dunn]

Nogaps turn west towards south florida at end of run as ridge build westward over US east coast..

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 2009083106

[KWT]

thats not a true wave. That is a cusp given the SW winds

Sorry but does that mean its close to closing of the circulation then?

[tpr1967]

It's not closed up. Just saying. Quiksat looks worse then yesterday, Thats all.

[Derek Ortt]

the cusp is better defined than yesterday evening

and no, this is not a TD yet Sanibel

[deltadog03]

gator, I don't that thing in the gom is this on the euro. Euro actually looks to develop this ok, drives it into the islands, and I think its somewhere in the bahamas as you posted before.

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/rb-l.jpg

Well, this really does have the "look"

[KWT]

Ok thanks Derek.

Its not that far off if it has SW winds, just needs to finish the job and hope that it doesn't get exposed before it gets upgraded because I suspect with the shear ahead of it its going to look somewhat like Danny towards the back end of this week...

[tpr1967]

Derek, can you give me info on this cusp thing i would like to know more about it. Thanks Tom

[Derek Ortt]

winds turn from the SW through the NE. We are missing northerly and NW winds

[x-y-no]

I'd lay odds on a TD by 5, but it's clearly not a closed circulation yet.