ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Derek Ortt]

This just spit out about 4 outflow boundaries

the fat lady is warming up for her final act, but she has yet to take the stage. She is anxious, however

[Derek Ortt]

Models are worthless at this point. There still is no storm, or storm center. All they do is show a general track which doesnt answer the question of wether it will impact the CONUS or not.

for the trillionth time

YOU DO NOT NEED A CENTER FOR A DYNAMICAL MODEL TO BE OF VALUE. IT IS ABLE TO FORM A CENTER ON ITS OWN. PLEASE STOP SPREADING THIS MYTH. ONLY A MODEL WITH A MOVING NEST NEEDS A CENTER DUE TO THE WAY THE FORTRAN PROGRAMS ARE WRITTEN

[Gustywind]

NRL site:

94LINVEST
20090901.1345.30kts-1007mb-159N-571W.

[wxman57]

Here's a new surface plot/satellite. Crosshairs represent where the NHC put the "center" on the latest model initialization. I might put it a bit west of there, but there really is no center yet. Definitely not getting better organized this morning. WV loop does indicate the upper low to its west may be lifting out to the north and/or weakening, though.

[Gustywind]

Latest

[Stormcenter]

I guess this is a joke right?

Latest

[Stormhunter27]

Quick question - outflow boundaries on Plains thunderstorms are often indicators of a collapsing storm. How do they feature in the organization of a developing TD?

I.e. is this a signature of increasing or decreasing organization of 94L?

[Derek Ortt]

it means decreasing organization. should see the large area of convection weaken this afternoon

[Gustywind]

I guess this is a joke right?

Latest

Why,? Explain your thought please , us in the islands will sincerely appreciate your comment about your sentence ? Tkanks

[artist]

Models are worthless at this point. There still is no storm, or storm center. All they do is show a general track which doesnt answer the question of wether it will impact the CONUS or not.

for the trillionth time

YOU DO NOT NEED A CENTER FOR A DYNAMICAL MODEL TO BE OF VALUE. IT IS ABLE TO FORM A CENTER ON ITS OWN. PLEASE STOP SPREADING THIS MYTH. ONLY A MODEL WITH A MOVING NEST NEEDS A CENTER DUE TO THE WAY THE FORTRAN PROGRAMS ARE WRITTEN

Derek, need more coffee this morning?
Plese explain it gently to us amateurs, my ears hurt this early in the morning!

[SunnyThoughts]

Allan Huffman's (RaleighWeather) take on 94L this morning for those who are interested. http://www.examiner.com/examiner/x-4053-Raleigh-Weather-Examiner~y2009m9d1-Invest-94-has-plenty-of-question-marks

[canes04]

17n 55w area, this could be where the LLC is forming.

anyway, back to work.

[Air Force Met]

I see what he is seeing, but I don't think it is an LLC.

I see it too...nice little vort center but its difficult to tell if there are any west winds south of it. My guess is no. Looks like some really good SW winds near 15.5 N...but this is above the sfc so who knows what is going on at the sfc. My guess is we have a very sharp cusp tilted back to the NE.

[OuterBanker]

I finally understand now why tpc hasn't called this. After Danny they want to be sure this is truly tropical. The future Ericka's structure still isn't there. The llc still appears to not be centered below the cdo. The cdo is far more symmetrical than Danny so it appears more organized. I don't think they will call until recon finds a center. I do feel that in this case the llc will locate itself under the cdo which Danny never did. Because this has slowed I do feel that it will cause headaches early next week. Hoping for another fish, but no sure yet.

Anyway, I do think that we will have to deal with a nor'easter from the OBX to maybe Delaware before it heads ne this weekend. I think that the wave in front of 94l will combine with one of the lows that are coming off the ec trough.

One personal note. It can stop raining now. August was one of the wettest on record here

[lrak]

Models are worthless at this point. There still is no storm, or storm center. All they do is show a general track which doesnt answer the question of wether it will impact the CONUS or not.

for the trillionth time

YOU DO NOT NEED A CENTER FOR A DYNAMICAL MODEL TO BE OF VALUE. IT IS ABLE TO FORM A CENTER ON ITS OWN. PLEASE STOP SPREADING THIS MYTH. ONLY A MODEL WITH A MOVING NEST NEEDS A CENTER DUE TO THE WAY THE FORTRAN PROGRAMS ARE WRITTEN






Does anyone NOT understand?

[jasons2k]

That Quickscat shows a really bizarre windfield. This is a weird one.

Looks like a classic open wave, which it probably is based on that center fix provided by WxMan57.

I don't think there's anything classic about this system. It is an odd one no doubt. But I do agree there is no closed circulation at this time, and it may not ever have one if Derek's observations about the effects of the trough continue to pan out.

It's an open wave that has been struggling to consolidate and can't. Quickscat and surface obs confirm that. What's so odd about that?

[artist]

Allan Huffman's (RaleighWeather) take on 94L this morning for those who are interested. http://www.examiner.com/examiner/x-4053-Raleigh-Weather-Examiner~y2009m9d1-Invest-94-has-plenty-of-question-marks

I read that earlier and thought it was well thought out and presented so us amateurs could understand the dynamics of what is going on.

[Lurker]

Models are worthless at this point. There still is no storm, or storm center. All they do is show a general track which doesnt answer the question of wether it will impact the CONUS or not.

for the trillionth time

YOU DO NOT NEED A CENTER FOR A DYNAMICAL MODEL TO BE OF VALUE. IT IS ABLE TO FORM A CENTER ON ITS OWN. PLEASE STOP SPREADING THIS MYTH. ONLY A MODEL WITH A MOVING NEST NEEDS A CENTER DUE TO THE WAY THE FORTRAN PROGRAMS ARE WRITTEN

Can a mod resize this text. It hurts my eyes to read such large text + it is slightly demeaning to the poster.

[Sanibel]

Even this could diminish today if the shear knocks it down:

[artist]

Coffee all around this morning! Hope this helps!
Please be gentle everyone. This system is going to teach us all alot about patience, I am afraid, both with it and one another.

Reading the link above from SunnyThoughts explains it fairly well why.