ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[ronjon]

Let's all wait for recon to know for sure - the weaker it stays the more west it'll move - perhaps even south of the islands in the caribbean. The latest tropical models (GFDL and HWRF) develop 94L into a hurricane and the ECM global develops it too. Looks like a recurve according to ECM, however, there is building high pressure moving down from New England which may complicate the track late in the forecast period.

[tpr1967]

Try more like 16.7 57.0. That best agrees with an extrapolated track of best tracks 1145 position of 16.4 56.6.

[x-y-no]

There is a circulation feature at 18, 56. You can see it on both loops.

I have no idea if it's an llc forming, or just another swirl, but I see it.

I see east winds throughout that area ...

[wxman57]

I don't think that's an LLC forming up by 18N. My eye is drawn toward about 16.7N/57W on the high-res loops. Generally, if you have to hunt for an LLC with no convection obscuring it, then it isn't there.

[Sanibel]

Direction looks like only 275 degrees. Practically west.


If it bursts again tonight it still has something.


Might crash on the islands.

[SapphireSea]

There is a circulation feature at 18, 56. You can see it on both loops.

I have no idea if it's an llc forming, or just another swirl, but I see it.

That's probobly more of a MLC that is trying to get down into the surface, but its elongated and not complete. It will weaken with the outflow from the convection.

[Derek Ortt]

I am seeing something near the position stated above. However, I am having trouble closing it off. Having a hard time seeing the NE winds

looks about as organized as Danny

[cycloneye]

Here is the latest plan of the day with the future missions for 94L / TD / Erika whatever it is

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT TUE 01 SEPTEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-095

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 77
A. 02/1800Z, 03/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0306A CYCLONE
C. 02/1630Z
D. 17.8N 60.7W
E. 02/1730Z TO 02/2355Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 75
A. 03/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0406A CYCLONE
C. 03/0445Z
D. 18.5N 62.2W
E. 03/0530Z TO 03/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES
THROUGH AT LEAST 04/0000Z.

[tolakram]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

I would say, as an amateur, looking better than before but still not good.

[Air Force Met]

I don't think that's an LLC forming up by 18N. My eye is drawn toward about 16.7N/57W on the high-res loops. Generally, if you have to hunt for an LLC with no convection obscuring it, then it isn't there.

16.7/57 is about where I see it. I see some eastward moving clouds in the hi-res...but these look like they are at about 2-4K feet. Who knows what is going on at the sfc...but probably not all the way down...

[SEASON_CANCELED]

looks like that shear hasnt panned out as thought. Im going to go against the grain here. If it looks good, walks good, and talks good. Its in good shape. IMO appears to be developing

[Weatherboy1]

I would concur with the folks talking about the 16.5-ish/57 area. Seems to be trying to get together a more well-defined, yet obviously exposed, LLC there. We'll have to see if that area can start spitting out some convection or if it all continues to get sheared off to the E.

[cycloneye]

I don't think that's an LLC forming up by 18N. My eye is drawn toward about 16.7N/57W on the high-res loops. Generally, if you have to hunt for an LLC with no convection obscuring it, then it isn't there.

16.7/57 is about where I see it. I see some eastward moving clouds in the hi-res...but these look like they are at about 2-4K feet. Who knows what is going on at the sfc...but probably not all the way down...

Recon will tell the truth guys.

[Sanibel]

Beautiful upper outflow - which probably explains last night's IR presentation. The shear and anti-cyclone aloft managed to get the best out of a weak feature:

[Wx_Warrior]

Geez,

Come on guys. If yall are arguing over this wait until a front stalls in the GOM next week.

[Aric Dunn]

Ok im going to cry.. lol .. no upgrade.. i go to sleep at a point where it was likely to be upgaded and i wake up and nope.. even though we have a system worthy of upgrad.. oh well.. lol

[knotimpaired]

Luis, is recon still set for 1? Also have they moved the hunters down to St Croix or are they coming out of the states?

[cycloneye]

Luis, is recon still set for 1? Also have they moved the hunters down to St Croix or are they coming out of the states?

Yes,plane departs at noon EDT from ST Croix.

[Gustywind]

Meteo-France has just issued an yellow alert for the Northern Leewards at 11am...

[Gustywind]

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