Strong wave in Eastern Atlantic

[cycloneye]

Here comes another impressive wave that may develop as the one in front of this one.

[Stormcenter]

It's getting late in the ball game so it better hurry up.

[Tropics Guy]

The next wave to exit may come off at a little lower latitude than the previous one which will likely be a re-curver.

TG

[RL3AO]

It's getting late in the ball game so it better hurry up.

It is?

[HURAKAN]

It's getting late in the ball game so it better hurry up.

It is?

September is a great month for Cape Verde to shine

[Stormcenter]

The disturbances coming off of Africa take approximately 2 weeks to come across the Atlantic and as we get into September more and more fronts/troughs start to progress into the U.S. As a matter of fact the long range models (GFS) are already indicating this.

It's getting late in the ball game so it better hurry up.

It is?

September is a great month for Cape Verde to shine

[RL3AO]

In two weeks we will be at the peak of the season.

[StormClouds63]

Agree with previous poster ... the wave exiting now looks to recurve. However, this 2nd wave actually appears to a have a slight southerly component in its overall westward track.

[Stormcenter]

The "peak" is actually in less then a week.
It's all down hill after that.

In two weeks we will be at the peak of the season.

[Macrocane]

The "peak" is actually in less then a week.
It's all down hill after that.

In two weeks we will be at the peak of the season.

The peak actually is in more than a week but less than 2 weeks, it's September 10th. Though I consider the whole month as the peak of the season and not just one day or week.

[otowntiger]

The next wave to exit may come off at a little lower latitude than the previous one which will likely be a re-curver.

TG

Since it is fairly close behind the one that just exited, and is in almost the same location the other one was earlier, what will keep it from following it's sibling out to sea to threaten the Azores, synoptically?

[Evil Jeremy]

The "peak" is actually in less then a week.
It's all down hill after that.

In two weeks we will be at the peak of the season.

Its downhill, save for a strange rise of activity as we get into October, then it sinks again.

[jinftl]

The end is not anywhere in sight.....latest blog from Dr Jeff Master's calls for an active first half of September...(who ever thought we would hear the words 'active' and '2009' in one sentence...then again, we are on track for a double digit # storm season)


It's September, the most active month for hurricane activity in the Northern Hemisphere. There's every indication that the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season will have an active first half of September, since SSTs are 0.5 - 1.0°C above average, wind shear is near average, and the African monsoon is sending a long parade of African waves spinning off the coast of Africa. An IR satellite image from noon today shows this activity well. We can see a line-up of five African waves stretching from the Lesser Antilles to eastern Africa. The GFS model develops the waves numbered "2" and "3" into tropical depressions next week, and the waves labeled "1" and "4" also have a chance to develop into tropical depressions, as well. The wave labeled "1" is mentioned on NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook as having a low (less than 30%) chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. This wave is under a moderate 10 - 15 knots of wind shear, and is over sufficiently warm waters (27 - 28°C) that some development may occur this week. The wave is far enough north that it will be hampered by dry air from the Sahara Desert

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1305

[cycloneye]

Ready to emerge the African coast.Looking good.

[alan1961]

Yes ready to emerge and if it developes get the Fred Flintstone images ready

[BigA]

This one looks solid, and has good model support. No better time (from a wave's perspective) to emerge from the African coast than the first week of September.

[Stormcenter]

Why?

I would think mid August would be a much favorable time period...less fronts or troughs to deal during a normal hurricane season. This season has been unusual.

This one looks solid, and has good model support. No better time (from a wave's perspective) to emerge from the African coast than the first week of September.

[HURAKAN]

Remember that Lili in 2002 formed on September 21

[ConvergenceZone]

Why?

I would think mid August would be a much favorable time period...less fronts or troughs to deal during a normal hurricane season. This season has been unusual.

This one looks solid, and has good model support. No better time (from a wave's perspective) to emerge from the African coast than the first week of September.

Stormcenter, I know you are bearish when it comes to hurricanes, but just remember, even if this year isn't active, there are plenty of intense and active seasons that lie ahead

not saying that it's bad being "bearish" on storms forming is bad. This year has just been a abnormal year...

[StormClouds63]

If Fred turns out to be anything like Wilma ... well, based on this season's history, I seriously doubt it. Nonetheless, this one might be the best bet of the season to break the re-curve pattern.