ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

YouTube · #2241 Postby **hurricanetrack** » Tue Sep 01, 2009 1:35 pm

So the new hurricane models are out, as wxman57 alluded to in the other thread, and SHIPS is backing off its hurricane intensity somewhat. Shows it weakening in the longer range...

artist · #2242 Postby **artist** » Tue Sep 01, 2009 1:35 pm

anyone else having problems with images coming up?

Aric Dunn · #2243 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Tue Sep 01, 2009 1:35 pm

apparently doing normal flight pattern.. no need to search for llc no more..

Derek Ortt · #2244 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Tue Sep 01, 2009 1:36 pm

SHIPS still has 3KT of shear over this now and about 25KT in 4 days.

still cannot figure out what GFS is doing

YouTube · #2245 Postby **hurricanetrack** » Tue Sep 01, 2009 1:36 pm

Here it is:

994
WHXX01 KWBC 011813
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1813 UTC TUE SEP 1 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942009) 20090901 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
090901 1800 090902 0600 090902 1800 090903 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.8N 57.2W 17.4N 58.9W 18.3N 60.6W 18.9N 62.0W
BAMD 16.8N 57.2W 17.6N 58.5W 18.2N 59.7W 18.8N 60.8W
BAMM 16.8N 57.2W 17.4N 58.6W 18.0N 60.0W 18.4N 61.1W
LBAR 16.8N 57.2W 17.5N 58.7W 18.1N 60.2W 18.6N 62.0W
SHIP 35KTS 41KTS 49KTS 54KTS
DSHP 35KTS 41KTS 49KTS 54KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
090903 1800 090904 1800 090905 1800 090906 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.5N 63.7W 20.5N 67.1W 21.4N 70.7W 22.1N 74.5W
BAMD 19.1N 61.9W 19.4N 63.9W 19.6N 66.1W 19.7N 68.6W
BAMM 18.8N 62.3W 19.4N 64.8W 20.2N 67.7W 20.9N 71.0W
LBAR 18.9N 63.8W 19.2N 67.3W 19.0N 69.9W 17.9N 71.7W
SHIP 61KTS 65KTS 62KTS 58KTS
DSHP 61KTS 65KTS 62KTS 58KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.8N LONCUR = 57.2W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 16.0N LONM12 = 56.0W DIRM12 = 296DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 15.1N LONM24 = 53.6W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 90NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

Orlando_wx · #2246 Postby **Orlando_wx** » Tue Sep 01, 2009 1:37 pm

artist wrote:anyone else having problems with images coming up?

System is lagging a bit

#2247 Postby **O Town** » Tue Sep 01, 2009 1:37 pm

artist wrote:anyone else having problems with images coming up?

Last night it was taking forever to load pictures for me, but ok today.

Gustywind · #2248 Postby **Gustywind** » Tue Sep 01, 2009 1:38 pm

Sanibel · #2249 Postby **Sanibel** » Tue Sep 01, 2009 1:39 pm

The IR shows a "lobe" developing in the convection center that shows the convection is reflecting the surface feature.

Maybe it will burst again and pulse up in strength. No way to tell.

artist · #2250 Postby **artist** » Tue Sep 01, 2009 1:39 pm

Atlantic USAF High-Density Observations
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

000
URNT15 KNHC 011836
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 15 20090901
182700 1553N 05748W 9649 00398 0100 +210 +166 283004 004 019 004 03
182730 1554N 05749W 9640 00406 0100 +214 +164 271003 004 022 003 03
182800 1556N 05751W 9646 00398 0098 +225 +163 270002 003 022 002 00
182830 1557N 05752W 9644 00402 0097 +232 +164 286005 005 021 000 03
182900 1558N 05753W 9644 00402 0096 +234 +166 260005 006 023 000 03
182930 1559N 05754W 9643 00402 0096 +232 +170 268006 007 999 999 03
183000 1601N 05755W 9656 00390 0096 +232 +175 306007 009 999 999 03
183030 1602N 05757W 9637 00408 0097 +233 +178 303005 006 999 999 03
183100 1603N 05758W 9646 00400 0096 +236 +180 315004 004 999 999 03
183130 1604N 05759W 9645 00401 0095 +237 +183 315004 004 999 999 03
183200 1605N 05800W 9645 00400 0095 +235 +185 320003 004 999 999 03
183230 1607N 05802W 9643 00402 0094 +236 +187 330003 003 999 999 03
183300 1608N 05803W 9654 00392 0094 +236 +189 332003 003 999 999 03
183330 1610N 05802W 9637 00406 0093 +238 +189 269004 004 999 999 03
183400 1611N 05801W 9646 00398 0094 +236 +190 279003 004 999 999 03
183430 1612N 05800W 9642 00401 0094 +235 +192 283004 004 999 999 03
183500 1613N 05758W 9645 00399 0093 +235 +192 277004 005 999 999 03
183530 1614N 05757W 9643 00399 0092 +237 +193 270005 006 999 999 03
183600 1616N 05756W 9646 00398 0093 +235 +193 284005 005 999 999 03
183630 1617N 05754W 9643 00399 0092 +238 +193 279005 005 999 999 03
$$
;

artist · #2251 Postby **artist** » Tue Sep 01, 2009 1:41 pm

missed ob4 somehow -

000
URNT11 KNHC 011838
97779 18334 30162 58008 04100 99005 24198 /0009
49905
RMK AF305 01BBA INVEST OB 05
;

artist · #2252 Postby **artist** » Tue Sep 01, 2009 1:41 pm

At 18:27:00Z (first observation), the observation was 228 miles (367 km) to the NNE (32°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
At 18:36:30Z (last observation), the observation was 242 miles (390 km) to the ENE (74°) from Roseau, Dominica.

#2253 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Sep 01, 2009 1:42 pm

If we didn't know where the real center is this would look like a well-organized tropical system

#2254 Postby **Ivanhater** » Tue Sep 01, 2009 1:42 pm

White line will likely be the NHC track

Chris_in_Tampa · #2255 Postby **Chris_in_Tampa** » Tue Sep 01, 2009 1:42 pm

Derek Ortt · #2256 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Tue Sep 01, 2009 1:43 pm

GFS seems to have unfavorable conditions in 4 days when nearly all other models have favorable

#2257 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Tue Sep 01, 2009 1:45 pm

Ivanhater wrote:White line will likely be the NHC track

What is the white line represent now? There is no NHC cone out yet, so what is it?

#2258 Postby **Ivanhater** » Tue Sep 01, 2009 1:48 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:White line will likely be the NHC track

What is the white line represent now? There is no NHC cone out yet, so what is it?

It is what the NHC thinks it will go (the OFCI), it is an "in house" track I guess you could say that is not part of the public advisory prior to being upgraded

artist · #2259 Postby **artist** » Tue Sep 01, 2009 1:49 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 011846
AF305 01BBA INVEST HDOB 16 20090901
183700 1618N 05753W 9647 00396 0092 +235 +194 289005 005 999 999 03
183730 1620N 05752W 9643 00399 0092 +235 +194 283004 005 999 999 03
183800 1621N 05750W 9644 00398 0092 +235 +194 260003 004 999 999 03
183830 1622N 05749W 9647 00395 0092 +235 +194 265003 003 999 999 03
183900 1623N 05748W 9639 00402 0091 +235 +194 256003 004 999 999 03
183930 1625N 05747W 9646 00396 0090 +237 +194 269003 003 999 999 03
184000 1626N 05745W 9646 00395 0090 +235 +195 256003 003 999 999 03
184030 1627N 05744W 9646 00394 0089 +235 +195 250003 003 999 999 03
184100 1628N 05743W 9645 00396 0089 +237 +195 280002 003 999 999 03
184130 1630N 05741W 9644 00396 0089 +235 +195 270001 001 999 999 03
184200 1631N 05740W 9643 00397 0089 +235 +195 295001 002 999 999 03
184230 1632N 05739W 9645 00395 0088 +235 +195 305001 002 999 999 03
184300 1633N 05738W 9645 00394 0088 +235 +196 279001 002 999 999 03
184330 1635N 05736W 9639 00399 0087 +235 +196 259002 003 999 999 03
184400 1636N 05735W 9646 00390 0086 +234 +196 199002 003 999 999 03
184430 1637N 05734W 9644 00392 0086 +227 +196 214003 005 999 999 03
184500 1638N 05732W 9647 00389 0084 +231 +194 233004 005 999 999 03
184530 1640N 05731W 9646 00390 0084 +233 +192 257004 004 999 999 03
184600 1641N 05730W 9643 00392 0085 +235 +190 248004 004 999 999 03
184630 1642N 05728W 9645 00391 0085 +235 +190 258003 004 999 999 03
$$
;

artist · #2260 Postby **artist** » Tue Sep 01, 2009 1:49 pm

At 18:37:00Z (first observation), the observation was 243 miles (392 km) to the ENE (73°) from Roseau, Dominica.
At 18:46:30Z (last observation), the observation was 278 miles (448 km) to the ENE (70°) from Roseau, Dominica.

ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

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