ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

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Evil Jeremy
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L)

#2681 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Sep 01, 2009 9:23 pm

rrm wrote:the longer it waits to get moving wouldnt give it more of a chance to take a westerly path?


Very complex. It could allow the ridge to build in, or allow another through to come, or something else.
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#2682 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 01, 2009 9:23 pm

man there is so much convection its hard to see what is even going on at the surface. Looks like little movement to me but who knows. Models have it moving out to the WNW already.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L)

#2683 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 01, 2009 9:23 pm

rrm wrote:the longer it waits to get moving wouldnt give it more of a chance to take a westerly path?

actually yes.. hence the models reacted to the lack of forward motion and shifted slightly west. the longer it hangs back the more west it could make it according to the lasted models synoptics..
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Re:

#2684 Postby 'CaneFreak » Tue Sep 01, 2009 9:24 pm

fasterdisaster wrote:Since Erika is a quite large cyclone, why is her pressure so high?


you answered your own question....the center is so large and elongated (still)...that the pressure is still having a hard time falling at a rapid rate...
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L)

#2685 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 01, 2009 9:24 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
rrm wrote:the longer it waits to get moving wouldnt give it more of a chance to take a westerly path?

actually yes.. hence the models reacted to the lack of forward motion and shifted slightly west. the longer it hangs back the more west it could make it according to the lasted models synoptics..


How so if it deepens, for example should hook more northward even quicker wouldn't you think given an approaching trough rolling off the Eastern CONUS in 84 hours (NAM depicts this trough well)? What makes you think more west if it stalls?
Last edited by gatorcane on Tue Sep 01, 2009 9:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L)

#2686 Postby OURAGAN » Tue Sep 01, 2009 9:25 pm

may be the center will reform soutward
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Re: Re:

#2687 Postby fasterdisaster » Tue Sep 01, 2009 9:25 pm

'CaneFreak wrote:
fasterdisaster wrote:Since Erika is a quite large cyclone, why is her pressure so high?


you answered your own question....the center is so large and elongated (still)...that the pressure is still having a hard time falling at a rapid rate...



Oh I see, thanks. Usually larger cyclones (Katrina, Floyd, Ivan) have low pressures for their windspeeds, hence my confusion.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L)

#2688 Postby rrm » Tue Sep 01, 2009 9:25 pm

i dont know to much but from what i am reading from you experienced ones it seems like this one could go either way
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L)

#2689 Postby artist » Tue Sep 01, 2009 9:25 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
rrm wrote:the longer it waits to get moving wouldnt give it more of a chance to take a westerly path?

actually yes.. hence the models reacted to the lack of forward motion and shifted slightly west. the longer it hangs back the more west it could make it according to the lasted models synoptics..


How so if it deepens, for example should hook more northward even quicker wouldn't you think given an approaching trough rolling off the Eastern CONUS in 84 hours (NAM depicts this trough well)? What makes you think more west if it stalls?

due to the timing is what I gather.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L)

#2690 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 01, 2009 9:27 pm

with a weak ridge to the north that will develop over the next week it won't matter how long it stalls and deepens.

Now it would be different if a large H5 ridge was going to be developing in the Western ATlantic north of it, sure I would buy that argument.....
Last edited by gatorcane on Tue Sep 01, 2009 9:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L)

#2691 Postby tpr1967 » Tue Sep 01, 2009 9:27 pm

Overall the middle of the convections coldest cloud tops have been moving slowly sw these evening.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L)

#2692 Postby fasterdisaster » Tue Sep 01, 2009 9:28 pm

tpr1967 wrote:Overall the middle of the convections coldest cloud tops have been moving slowly sw these evening.


Likely only because it's still moving towards the center.
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Re: Re:

#2693 Postby 'CaneFreak » Tue Sep 01, 2009 9:29 pm

fasterdisaster wrote:
'CaneFreak wrote:
fasterdisaster wrote:Since Erika is a quite large cyclone, why is her pressure so high?


you answered your own question....the center is so large and elongated (still)...that the pressure is still having a hard time falling at a rapid rate...



Oh I see, thanks. Usually larger cyclones (Katrina, Floyd, Ivan) have low pressures for their windspeeds, hence my confusion.


yeah...the overall size of the convection is only half of it...if you have a real tight core, then you get a greater centrifugal force and therefore a more rapid pressure fall...just a little physics for you :)
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA - Computer Models

#2694 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Sep 01, 2009 9:29 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
AdamFirst wrote:
wzrgirl1 wrote:which models?


Pretty much all of them. :P


To sum up the latest model run, the 00z BAM's have shifted significantly north (but they don't really count in the first place lol). The 00z CMC is virtually identically to the 18z run, which is very close to the center of the NHC cone. the 18z GFDL and HWRF have shifted south and west, and the 18z NOGAPS seems to be more north but more west than the previous run. The 18z GFS is the southern outlier, taking it into the (south part of the) Northern Bahamas. Overall, the TVCN, which represents the average of all the models above combined, has shifted a little south and west.


The CMC is only run twice a day. That is interpolated from the 12 hour CMC forecast

basically, the models are showing either and Isabel or a Gloria. Will know a lot more this time tomorrow
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L)

#2695 Postby OURAGAN » Tue Sep 01, 2009 9:31 pm

i begin to think we will get severe showers and thunderstorm in Guadeloupe, the system is so close.
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Re: ATL : TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (06L)

#2696 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 01, 2009 9:31 pm

..
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Tue Sep 01, 2009 9:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2697 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 01, 2009 9:31 pm

The 00Z NAM rolling in now has really backed down on development (seems like it is a little lost now I think) and is more right on track closer to the GFDL and HWRF models.....

Huge break in the ridge over FL here with a trough digging. Note the SW winds aloft all the way down into the NW Caribbean and Yucatan -- that is essentially a barrier wall you see for anything moving west even remotely close to the GOM or FL.

Image

Image
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#2698 Postby ConvergenceZone » Tue Sep 01, 2009 9:32 pm

Even though this is more than likely going out to sea(except perhaps bermuda), it's fascinating to watch the recent development. Looks like a fun one to watch.
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Re:

#2699 Postby Patrick99 » Tue Sep 01, 2009 9:32 pm

gatorcane wrote:man there is so much convection its hard to see what is even going on at the surface. Looks like little movement to me but who knows. Models have it moving out to the WNW already.


Yeah, it's hard to tell. I still suspect the LLC is crawling along due west; that's what it seemed to be doing to me the last visible frames of the day. I wonder if there's a center relocation trying to happen under that semi-rotational purple convection that appears to be diving SW at the moment. Probably not, I guess.
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Re:

#2700 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 01, 2009 9:32 pm

gatorcane wrote:man there is so much convection its hard to see what is even going on at the surface. Looks like little movement to me but who knows. Models have it moving out to the WNW already.


thats why you look at microwaves images.. :)

this was just about the time of recon and the cricle is the position of the last vortex message

clearly the convection is having a hard time wrapping around mostly do to dry air to the west which is slowly moistening..

Image
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