Caribbean - Central America Weather
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Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
Sun is now back out in Barbados and has been for about an hour..... lovely breeze coming out of the south west..... Hopefully the breezes will continue the heat here has been unbearable over the last few days..... To my friends in the islands in the north... stay safe and stay vigilant.
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cycloneye
- Admin
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- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
355 PM AST TUE SEP 1 2009
.DISCUSSION...A MAINLY DRY NIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT WITH SOME
PASSING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST TRADES. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL WITH MOISTURE PASSING IN THE TRADES
AND RESULTING IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN DIURNALLY AND NOCTURNALLY
FAVORED AREAS. LOCAL WEATHER FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND PROBABLY SATURDAY TOO...WILL BE
DICTATED BY APPROACHING DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING SYSTEM AND HAS
FOUND SOME PRETTY STRONG WINDS AND SATELLITE APPEARS TOO INDICATE
THAT SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL BE WAITING FOR ANY NEW INFORMATION FROM NHC ON THIS
DISTURBANCE AND WHETHER OR NOT THE AIRCRAFT WAS ABLE TO CLOSE OFF
A SURFACE CIRCULATION. IRRESPECTIVE...AVAILABLE MODELS CONTINUE
TO BRING THIS SYSTEM CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
THEN PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO...WITH A ROUGH TIMING OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THE FUTURE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE WHAT HAPPENS WITH OUR LOCAL WEATHER...BUT
SUFFICE TO SAY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING FAIRLY CLOSE AND WE
WOULD ANTICIPATE AT LEAST SOME MINIMAL EFFECTS FROM IT...
ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING...AT LEAST LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND EVENTUALLY ROUGH SEAS.
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Gustywind
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Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
caribsue wrote:Sun is now back out in Barbados and has been for about an hour..... lovely breeze coming out of the south west..... Hopefully the breezes will continue the heat here has been unbearable over the last few days..... To my friends in the islands in the north... stay safe and stay vigilant.
Tkanks for the info
Tkanks too for the PM you sent me the last hour. 
Yeah seems that a TD is forming even a TS given the unofficialy update, so we wait and see but we continue to be prudent and vigilant Caribsue. I will keep you informed as possible.Nice thoughts from all the Leewards BVI PR.
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cycloneye
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Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
We have Tropical Storm Erika,advisory shortly.
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
000
WTNT31 KNHC 012047
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 01 2009
...ERIKA FORMS EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES ISSUED...
AT 5 PM...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLAND OF ST. MAARTEN.
AT 5 PM...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST.
KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA.
AT 5 PM...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...U.S. AND
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERIKA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.3 WEST OR ABOUT 390
MILES...625 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
ERIKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.2N 57.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
000
WTNT31 KNHC 012047
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 01 2009
...ERIKA FORMS EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES ISSUED...
AT 5 PM...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLAND OF ST. MAARTEN.
AT 5 PM...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST.
KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA.
AT 5 PM...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...U.S. AND
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERIKA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA
OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.3 WEST OR ABOUT 390
MILES...625 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
ERIKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.2N 57.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
WTNT41 KNHC 012047
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 01 2009
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND HAS FOUND A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1007 MB AND A CLOSED...ALBEIT...BROAD
CIRCULATION. PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 52 KT WITH SFMR DATA OF
ABOUT 45 KT. THUS...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA HAS FORMED WITH AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT ERIKA IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WITH THE CENTER NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION. SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE STORM SEEMS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE THE SSTS ARE WARM AND SHEAR
REMAINS MODERATE. HOWEVER...IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...GLOBAL MODELS
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE SHEAR NEAR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS
UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES FROM A MID-OCEANIC TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC IMPINGE ON THE SYSTEM. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
ERIKA WEAKENING AFTER TWO DAYS DUE TO THE SHEAR. THE TWO BIG
OUTLIERS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE THE GFDL/HWRF...WHICH FORM AN
ANTICYCLONE NEAR ERIKA AND MAKE IT A HURRICANE. THE NHC FORECAST
WILL SHOW SLOW INTENSIFICATION OVER THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN
WEAKENING THEREAFTER AS THE SHEAR TAKES OVER. THE NHC FORECAST WILL
BE CONSERVATIVE AT THIS TIME...BUT IT IS OF NOTE THAT ALMOST ALL OF
THE RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOW ERIKA EVENTUALLY BECOMING A
HURRICANE...DESPITE THE SHEAR.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/8...THOUGH THE CENTER APPEARS TO
HAVE DONE SOME REFORMATION SINCE YESTERDAY. MID-LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHOULD CAUSE ERIKA TO MOVE ALONG
THAT GENERAL COURSE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...
THE STORM COULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT NEARS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS FORECAST IS RATHER
UNCERTAIN AS THE TRACK PROBABLY HAS A STRONG DEPENDENCE ON THE
FUTURE INTENSITY OF ERIKA. A WEAKER SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY MOVE MORE
TO THE WEST...SIMILAR TO THE UKMET OR GFS MODELS. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY FEEL THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND
MOVE MORE TO THE RIGHT...LIKE THE HWRF/GFDL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS LEFT OF THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR FORECAST
IN THE LONGER-TERM.
BECAUSE OF THE PROXIMITY TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED IN THAT AREA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/2100Z 17.2N 57.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 17.7N 58.2W 45 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 18.4N 60.3W 50 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 19.1N 62.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 19.8N 63.8W 60 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 21.0N 66.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 23.0N 69.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 06/1800Z 25.0N 72.0W 45 KT
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
WTNT41 KNHC 012047
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 01 2009
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND HAS FOUND A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1007 MB AND A CLOSED...ALBEIT...BROAD
CIRCULATION. PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 52 KT WITH SFMR DATA OF
ABOUT 45 KT. THUS...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA HAS FORMED WITH AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT ERIKA IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WITH THE CENTER NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION. SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE STORM SEEMS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE THE SSTS ARE WARM AND SHEAR
REMAINS MODERATE. HOWEVER...IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...GLOBAL MODELS
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE SHEAR NEAR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS
UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES FROM A MID-OCEANIC TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC IMPINGE ON THE SYSTEM. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
ERIKA WEAKENING AFTER TWO DAYS DUE TO THE SHEAR. THE TWO BIG
OUTLIERS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE THE GFDL/HWRF...WHICH FORM AN
ANTICYCLONE NEAR ERIKA AND MAKE IT A HURRICANE. THE NHC FORECAST
WILL SHOW SLOW INTENSIFICATION OVER THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN
WEAKENING THEREAFTER AS THE SHEAR TAKES OVER. THE NHC FORECAST WILL
BE CONSERVATIVE AT THIS TIME...BUT IT IS OF NOTE THAT ALMOST ALL OF
THE RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOW ERIKA EVENTUALLY BECOMING A
HURRICANE...DESPITE THE SHEAR.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/8...THOUGH THE CENTER APPEARS TO
HAVE DONE SOME REFORMATION SINCE YESTERDAY. MID-LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHOULD CAUSE ERIKA TO MOVE ALONG
THAT GENERAL COURSE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...
THE STORM COULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT NEARS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THIS FORECAST IS RATHER
UNCERTAIN AS THE TRACK PROBABLY HAS A STRONG DEPENDENCE ON THE
FUTURE INTENSITY OF ERIKA. A WEAKER SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY MOVE MORE
TO THE WEST...SIMILAR TO THE UKMET OR GFS MODELS. HOWEVER...A
STRONGER SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY FEEL THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND
MOVE MORE TO THE RIGHT...LIKE THE HWRF/GFDL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS LEFT OF THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR FORECAST
IN THE LONGER-TERM.
BECAUSE OF THE PROXIMITY TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED IN THAT AREA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/2100Z 17.2N 57.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 17.7N 58.2W 45 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 18.4N 60.3W 50 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 19.1N 62.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 19.8N 63.8W 60 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 21.0N 66.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 23.0N 69.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 06/1800Z 25.0N 72.0W 45 KT
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
WTNT21 KNHC 012047
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
2100 UTC TUE SEP 01 2009
AT 5 PM...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLAND OF ST. MAARTEN.
AT 5 PM...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST.
KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA.
AT 5 PM...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...U.S. AND
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERIKA.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 57.3W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 57.3W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 57.0W
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.7N 58.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.4N 60.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 30SW 45NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.1N 62.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 45SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.8N 63.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 45SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.0N 66.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 45SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 23.0N 69.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 25.0N 72.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 57.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
WTNT21 KNHC 012047
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062009
2100 UTC TUE SEP 01 2009
AT 5 PM...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLAND OF ST. MAARTEN.
AT 5 PM...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST.
KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA.
AT 5 PM...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...U.S. AND
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERIKA.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 57.3W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 57.3W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 57.0W
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.7N 58.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.4N 60.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 30SW 45NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.1N 62.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 45SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.8N 63.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 45SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.0N 66.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 45SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 23.0N 69.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 25.0N 72.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 57.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
000
AWCA82 TJSJ 012059
RWSVI
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
459 PM AST TUE SEP 1 2009
...ERIKA WAS BORN EAST AND SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF SAINT CROIX...
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
TODAY. VERY FEW SHOWERS WERE SEEN AND THOSE WERE OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS. WINDS WERE FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AT 12 TO 18 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. TEMPERATURES PUSHED INTO THE LOWER 90S AT THE LOCAL
AIRPORTS.
THE DISTURBANCE IN THE ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 510 MILES EAST
AND SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF SAINT CROIX HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 52 MPH. ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTHEAST
OF THE LOCAL AREA. NEVERTHELESS THE STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLE
LOCAL FLOODING ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH IT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS IT COULD EASILY CHANGE TRACK.
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL GO INTO
EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AT MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY.
PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENTS ARE IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME FOR THE OUTER
ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT ELSEWHERE SEAS ARE 5 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS
ARE 17 KNOTS OR LESS. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN DETERIORATING
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY CONTINUING THOUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
ACROSS THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND ANEGADA PASSAGE WATERS.
$$
$$
AWCA82 TJSJ 012059
RWSVI
WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
459 PM AST TUE SEP 1 2009
...ERIKA WAS BORN EAST AND SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF SAINT CROIX...
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
TODAY. VERY FEW SHOWERS WERE SEEN AND THOSE WERE OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS. WINDS WERE FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AT 12 TO 18 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. TEMPERATURES PUSHED INTO THE LOWER 90S AT THE LOCAL
AIRPORTS.
THE DISTURBANCE IN THE ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 510 MILES EAST
AND SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF SAINT CROIX HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 52 MPH. ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTHEAST
OF THE LOCAL AREA. NEVERTHELESS THE STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLE
LOCAL FLOODING ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH IT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS IT COULD EASILY CHANGE TRACK.
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL GO INTO
EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS AT MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY.
PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENTS ARE IN EFFECT AT THIS TIME FOR THE OUTER
ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT ELSEWHERE SEAS ARE 5 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS
ARE 17 KNOTS OR LESS. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN DETERIORATING
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY CONTINUING THOUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
ACROSS THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND ANEGADA PASSAGE WATERS.
$$
$$
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Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
yea, I think we are going to get some serious rain from Erika!
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-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145358
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
658 PM AST TUE SEP 1 2009
...NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR RESIDENTS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THERE ARE NO TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR
OUR AREA...HOWEVER PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AS THEY ARE IN THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY
FOR THIS STORM...AND WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BECOME NECESSARY AS
THIS STORM CONTINUES IT TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 PM AST...NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED AT LATITUDE
17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.3 WEST...OR ABOUT 390 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ERIKA WAS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9
MPH...AND IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO LATE THURSDAY.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
WHILE THE CURRENT TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA REMAINS NORTH OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS...RESIDENTS AND TOURISTS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO
THE DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION AS PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS REMAIN IN THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY AND WATCHES
OR WARNINGS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME NECESSARY.
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT TROPICAL STORM ERIKA TRACKS NORTH OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS...INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. IF YOU ARE IN
A FLOOD PRONE AREA...YOU SHOULD FIND OUT WHICH LOCAL SHELTER WOULD
BE AVAILABLE TO YOU IN CASE OF FLOODING.
PEOPLE ARE URGED TO REMAIN INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA
OUTLET.
IN ADDITION...MARINERS SHOULD KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST AS INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NOW IS THE TIME TO ENSURE THAT YOUR TROPICAL CYCLONE PREPAREDNESS
KITS ARE IN ORDER AND READY TO GO IN CASE DISASTER STRIKES.
&&
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SAN JUAN AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.
AMZ710-712-715-722-725-732-735-741-742-745-PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-
022300-
/O.CON.TJSJ.HU.S.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
OUT 10 NM-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
658 PM AST TUE SEP 1 2009
...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...
...NEW INFORMATION...
STORM STATUS...POSITION AND SPEED.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
EVEN IF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA TRACKS NORTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. IF
YOU ARE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA...YOU SHOULD FIND OUT WHICH LOCAL
SHELTER WOULD BE AVAILABLE TO YOU IN CASE OF FLOODING.
PEOPLE ARE URGED TO REMAIN INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA
OUTLET.
IN ADDITION...MARINERS SHOULD KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST AS INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NOW IS THE TIME TO ENSURE THAT YOUR TROPICAL CYCLONE PREPAREDNESS
KITS ARE IN ORDER AND READY TO GO IN CASE DISASTER STRIKES.
&&
...INLAND FLOODING...
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE OUTER BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM
ERIKA AS IT PASSES BY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO MAINTAIN
VIGILANCE AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.
...MARINE...
ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS AS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA BRINGS INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK LATE
THURSDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
$$
SR/WS
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
658 PM AST TUE SEP 1 2009
...NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR RESIDENTS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THERE ARE NO TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR
OUR AREA...HOWEVER PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AS THEY ARE IN THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY
FOR THIS STORM...AND WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BECOME NECESSARY AS
THIS STORM CONTINUES IT TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.
.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 PM AST...NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED AT LATITUDE
17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.3 WEST...OR ABOUT 390 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ERIKA WAS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9
MPH...AND IS EXPECTED TO PASS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO LATE THURSDAY.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
WHILE THE CURRENT TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA REMAINS NORTH OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS...RESIDENTS AND TOURISTS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO
THE DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION AS PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS REMAIN IN THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY AND WATCHES
OR WARNINGS MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME NECESSARY.
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT TROPICAL STORM ERIKA TRACKS NORTH OF
THE LOCAL ISLANDS...INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. IF YOU ARE IN
A FLOOD PRONE AREA...YOU SHOULD FIND OUT WHICH LOCAL SHELTER WOULD
BE AVAILABLE TO YOU IN CASE OF FLOODING.
PEOPLE ARE URGED TO REMAIN INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA
OUTLET.
IN ADDITION...MARINERS SHOULD KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST AS INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NOW IS THE TIME TO ENSURE THAT YOUR TROPICAL CYCLONE PREPAREDNESS
KITS ARE IN ORDER AND READY TO GO IN CASE DISASTER STRIKES.
&&
.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SAN JUAN AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.
AMZ710-712-715-722-725-732-735-741-742-745-PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-
022300-
/O.CON.TJSJ.HU.S.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
ANEGADA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
OUT 10 NM-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-ST CROIX-
658 PM AST TUE SEP 1 2009
...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...
...NEW INFORMATION...
STORM STATUS...POSITION AND SPEED.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
EVEN IF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA TRACKS NORTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. IF
YOU ARE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA...YOU SHOULD FIND OUT WHICH LOCAL
SHELTER WOULD BE AVAILABLE TO YOU IN CASE OF FLOODING.
PEOPLE ARE URGED TO REMAIN INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THROUGH YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA
OUTLET.
IN ADDITION...MARINERS SHOULD KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST AS INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
NOW IS THE TIME TO ENSURE THAT YOUR TROPICAL CYCLONE PREPAREDNESS
KITS ARE IN ORDER AND READY TO GO IN CASE DISASTER STRIKES.
&&
...INLAND FLOODING...
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE OUTER BANDS OF TROPICAL STORM
ERIKA AS IT PASSES BY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO MAINTAIN
VIGILANCE AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.
...MARINE...
ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS AS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA BRINGS INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK LATE
THURSDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
$$
SR/WS
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Gustywind
- Category 5
- Posts: 12334
- Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:29 am
- Location: Baie-Mahault, GUADELOUPE
Here is the FAT LADY, she's becoming fatter and fatter 
...juicy convection is exploding right now, even in the sw portion reaching St Lucia latitude . Something to watch very very carefully for the Northern Leewards, thus those who are in Guadeloupe, Antigua, Montserrat, St Kitts, etc. don't let your guard down!!! We could experience some memorable feeder bands, squall lines, and nice amount of water, keep a close eye on this impressive lady!
My name is...ERIKA :eek:
View on this forward angle, looks like all the Leewards will get some rain breakfast, even Dominica and Martinica
...juicy convection is exploding right now, even in the sw portion reaching St Lucia latitude . Something to watch very very carefully for the Northern Leewards, thus those who are in Guadeloupe, Antigua, Montserrat, St Kitts, etc. don't let your guard down!!! We could experience some memorable feeder bands, squall lines, and nice amount of water, keep a close eye on this impressive lady!My name is...ERIKA :eek:
View on this forward angle, looks like all the Leewards will get some rain breakfast, even Dominica and Martinica
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Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
she's meandering! That probably means she is sitting out there, trying to decide which way to go and getting stronger while she decides..
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.3 WEST OR ABOUT 390
MILES...625 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
ERIKA HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST 3 HOURS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
TONIGHT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1004 MB...29.66 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.2N 57.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NEARLY STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.3 WEST OR ABOUT 390
MILES...625 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
ERIKA HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST 3 HOURS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
TONIGHT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1004 MB...29.66 INCHES.
...SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.2N 57.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NEARLY STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145358
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: E.Caribbean=Web Cams / Obs / Forecasts / Daily Weather
msbee wrote:Erika is making me nervous now!
I dont like the last trend of Erika stalling because the center may jump around the convection and then is a new ballgame.Lets see what happens in the next 12-24 hours.I advise you to start preparations there.
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