ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[MWatkins]

It appears that the american models tonight are showing that trof coming down into the plains from hr96 on are slowing it down and holding it back further WEST. That allows the ridge to build in/hold in place. It kinda makes sense since the westerlies will be up on the canadian boarder attm. We shall see.

Indeed. Plus we are going to have a lot of heat transferred into the trough picking up Jimena on the west coast.

Seems like all of the globals are backing off progressing the pattern in the middle term.

MW

[RL3AO]

[Aric Dunn]

It appears that the american models tonight are showing that trof coming down into the plains from hr96 on are slowing it down and holding it back further WEST. That allows the ridge to build in/hold in place. It kinda makes sense since the westerlies will be up on the canadian boarder attm. We shall see.

Indeed. Plus we are going to have a lot of heat transferred into the trough picking up Jimena on the west coast.

Seems like all of the globals are backing off progressing the pattern in the middle term.

MW

Hey Mike what you think of the Nogaps?

[Ptarmigan]

The computer models are all over the place with Erika. We shall see.

[caneseddy]

It appears that the american models tonight are showing that trof coming down into the plains from hr96 on are slowing it down and holding it back further WEST. That allows the ridge to build in/hold in place. It kinda makes sense since the westerlies will be up on the canadian boarder attm. We shall see.

Indeed. Plus we are going to have a lot of heat transferred into the trough picking up Jimena on the west coast.

Seems like all of the globals are backing off progressing the pattern in the middle term.

MW

Mike,

Now that you mention it, and looking at the new runs showing a stronger high building, I was thinking whether the models are sensing Jimena interacting with the trough and maybe slowing it down, or is Jimena too far for it to affect Erika and the synoptic pattern?

[MWatkins]

It appears that the american models tonight are showing that trof coming down into the plains from hr96 on are slowing it down and holding it back further WEST. That allows the ridge to build in/hold in place. It kinda makes sense since the westerlies will be up on the canadian boarder attm. We shall see.

Indeed. Plus we are going to have a lot of heat transferred into the trough picking up Jimena on the west coast.

Seems like all of the globals are backing off progressing the pattern in the middle term.

MW

Hey Mike what you think of the Nogaps?

Hey Aric,

It's been all over the place. Seems way more progressive with the CONUS trough and really punches out the weatern Atl ridge. Completely different solution than the GFS.

Seems to have a better handle on Erika in terms of intensity. Looks a lot like the 12Z Euro solution. Will be interesting to see if the 0Z euro goes the other way or sticks with the previous solution.

MW

[RL3AO]

URNT15 KNHC 020454
AF305 0206A ERIKA HDOB 08 20090902
044500 1608N 06026W 4098 07415 0404 -150 -198 071004 004 999 999 03
044530 1609N 06023W 4099 07412 0402 -150 -198 072003 003 025 000 03
044600 1609N 06020W 4099 07412 0401 -150 -199 076002 003 999 999 03
044630 1610N 06018W 4099 07410 0400 -150 -200 086002 002 999 999 03
044700 1611N 06015W 4101 07409 0400 -150 -201 080003 003 023 000 03
044730 1611N 06012W 4176 07274 0396 -145 -202 073003 004 023 000 03
044800 1612N 06009W 4248 07144 0390 -137 -203 041003 004 022 000 03
044830 1613N 06006W 4418 06860 0383 -115 -204 011005 007 999 999 03
044900 1613N 06003W 4642 06476 0359 -084 -202 038007 008 999 999 03
044930 1614N 06000W 4875 06096 0337 -060 -196 047007 009 999 999 03
045000 1615N 05957W 5136 05685 0311 -039 -187 013009 010 999 999 03
045030 1615N 05954W 5401 05287 0286 -016 -175 012009 010 999 999 03
045100 1616N 05951W 5682 04881 0094 +012 -161 356008 009 999 999 03
045130 1617N 05949W 5971 04477 0088 +042 -147 358009 010 999 999 03
045200 1617N 05946W 6267 04086 0101 +060 -128 012011 013 999 999 03
045230 1618N 05943W 6555 03715 0100 +083 -099 001012 013 999 999 03
045300 1618N 05940W 6894 03295 0094 +110 -069 351013 013 999 999 03
045330 1619N 05938W 7224 02899 0092 +134 -044 349012 013 999 999 03
045400 1619N 05935W 7563 02513 0103 +148 -020 325008 010 999 999 03
045430 1620N 05933W 7916 02128 0117 +155 +006 306005 006 999 999 03
$$
;


Descending to FL.

[Aric Dunn]

all righty thanks.. thats what i figured..

[vbhoutex]

Maybe it is my old age and memory loss, but in all my years of tropics watching I don't remember seeing a TS this large. With this much convectivity I also find it strange that more hasn't happened with Erika especially in the way of a tight well defined LLCC(at least not that I am aware of yet). On top of that tonight the convection seems to be building S, not N and W as I would expect it too. Admittedly before the eclipse it appears there may be some more convection trying to fire on the NW side. My question is this-What are we missing? I have found Erika to be very strange for a TC so far.

[MWatkins]

It appears that the american models tonight are showing that trof coming down into the plains from hr96 on are slowing it down and holding it back further WEST. That allows the ridge to build in/hold in place. It kinda makes sense since the westerlies will be up on the canadian boarder attm. We shall see.

Indeed. Plus we are going to have a lot of heat transferred into the trough picking up Jimena on the west coast.

Seems like all of the globals are backing off progressing the pattern in the middle term.

MW

Mike,

Now that you mention it, and looking at the new runs showing a stronger high building, I was thinking whether the models are sensing Jimena interacting with the trough and maybe slowing it down, or is Jimena too far for it to affect Erika and the synoptic pattern?

Entirely possible that the heat transfer will slow down the pattern progression. I don't know enough about the models to know how well these interactions are handled, but could be a game changer down the road.

MW

[Evil Jeremy]

Mike,

Now that you mention it, and looking at the new runs showing a stronger high building, I was thinking whether the models are sensing Jimena interacting with the trough and maybe slowing it down, or is Jimena too far for it to affect Erika and the synoptic pattern?

Entirely possible that the heat transfer will slow down the pattern progression. I don't know enough about the models to know how well these interactions are handled, but could be a game changer down the road.

MW

Gah, to many factors! Thats it, I am going to sleep lol!

[btangy]

I know our sat, is out of commish for now, but here is a pic from about 30 mins ago. Its at a weird angle for sure, but shows that area on the NW side still showing signs of setting off like a bomb up there. Will be interesting to see what the sat pic shows at 215am.

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MS ... /index.htm

Yea, looks like the new burst is about to take over. I wonder if a new LLC got ejected westward from the earlier deep convection and the new convection is firing around it. Hard to tell with the cirrus canopy, and it's going to be hard to fix a true center and assess movement if this keeps happening.

-85C tops, huge cell implosions. 00Z soundings in the Leewards show several elevated mixed layers and decent CAPE. I bet there's a ton of lightning in those cells. Like something straight out of the Midwest during severe weather season.

[deltadog03]

ya almost like a HUGE MCC....

[RL3AO]

URNT15 KNHC 020504
AF305 0206A ERIKA HDOB 09 20090902
045500 1621N 05930W 8260 01763 0123 +164 +028 323005 005 999 999 03
045530 1621N 05928W 8429 01571 0111 +159 +043 332004 006 027 000 03
045600 1621N 05926W 8439 01557 0102 +167 +051 332005 005 026 000 00
045630 1622N 05924W 8424 01573 0099 +167 +055 315005 005 024 000 03
045700 1622N 05922W 8427 01565 0091 +175 +060 328004 005 999 999 03
045730 1623N 05921W 8421 01572 0091 +175 +065 332003 003 019 000 03
045800 1625N 05920W 8419 01577 0094 +175 +070 327002 003 021 000 03
045830 1626N 05918W 8431 01566 0093 +179 +075 336003 004 024 000 03
045900 1628N 05917W 8429 01568 0092 +180 +081 333003 003 999 999 03
045930 1629N 05915W 8430 01566 0092 +180 +087 350004 004 027 000 03
050000 1631N 05914W 8438 01560 0095 +177 +092 356002 003 999 999 03
050030 1632N 05912W 8428 01572 0099 +172 +096 049004 004 024 000 03
050100 1634N 05911W 8429 01569 0093 +181 +097 028003 004 024 000 03
050130 1635N 05909W 8423 01576 0095 +175 +098 331001 002 024 000 00
050200 1636N 05908W 8433 01563 0110 +150 +100 158003 005 022 001 00
050230 1638N 05906W 8434 01561 0106 +155 +098 131004 005 017 000 03
050300 1639N 05905W 8428 01571 0096 +174 +094 163001 002 020 000 00
050330 1641N 05904W 8429 01569 0096 +176 +093 158002 003 021 000 00
050400 1642N 05902W 8430 01567 0101 +169 +095 085003 004 021 000 00
050430 1644N 05901W 8426 01572 0094 +177 +096 181001 002 020 000 03
$$
;

[RL3AO]

URNT15 KNHC 020514
AF305 0206A ERIKA HDOB 10 20090902
050500 1645N 05859W 8428 01572 0097 +175 +098 144001 002 021 000 00
050530 1647N 05858W 8431 01568 0096 +177 +101 144002 003 022 000 03
050600 1648N 05856W 8430 01569 0097 +176 +105 161003 003 022 000 03
050630 1650N 05854W 8429 01571 0097 +175 +108 147005 005 024 000 03
050700 1651N 05853W 8430 01572 0100 +173 +112 128008 010 023 000 00
050730 1653N 05851W 8431 01569 0100 +173 +115 120011 012 023 000 00
050800 1654N 05850W 8430 01572 0099 +175 +115 120009 009 022 000 00
050830 1656N 05848W 8429 01573 0100 +175 +115 120008 009 022 000 00
050900 1657N 05847W 8429 01574 0099 +177 +117 134009 009 022 000 00
050930 1659N 05845W 8431 01572 0100 +175 +119 136010 010 022 000 03
051000 1700N 05843W 8429 01576 0103 +171 +121 132012 014 021 000 00
051030 1701N 05842W 8430 01573 0102 +172 +121 127013 014 021 000 03
051100 1703N 05840W 8429 01576 0103 +173 +120 127013 014 019 000 00
051130 1704N 05839W 8430 01574 0105 +171 +120 125016 017 020 000 00
051200 1706N 05838W 8430 01576 0103 +174 +121 127017 017 027 002 00
051230 1707N 05836W 8428 01576 0103 +171 +122 140017 018 034 005 03
051300 1709N 05835W 8427 01577 0110 +163 +124 150018 019 035 003 00
051330 1711N 05833W 8439 01567 0107 +171 +122 145018 020 035 000 00
051400 1713N 05832W 8430 01577 0109 +170 +118 143021 024 035 002 03
051430 1714N 05831W 8427 01580 0108 +170 +115 133018 019 034 001 00
$$
;


Approaching the center from the south

[djones65]

Hey guys, have you seen the latest HDOB's from recon? At 17.2 and 58.5 they have southeast winds at 20kt flight level (850hpa) and SFMR of 35kts. WTH?
How can there be such broad area of SE winds just 70-80 miles southwest of the center? I am scratching my head... Any theories of why?

[MWatkins]

I know our sat, is out of commish for now, but here is a pic from about 30 mins ago. Its at a weird angle for sure, but shows that area on the NW side still showing signs of setting off like a bomb up there. Will be interesting to see what the sat pic shows at 215am.

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MS ... /index.htm

Yea, looks like the new burst is about to take over. I wonder if a new LLC got ejected westward from the earlier deep convection and the new convection is firing around it. Hard to tell with the cirrus canopy, and it's going to be hard to fix a true center and assess movement if this keeps happening.

-85C tops, huge cell implosions. 00Z soundings in the Leewards show several elevated mixed layers and decent CAPE. I bet there's a ton of lightning in those cells. Like something straight out of the Midwest during severe weather season.

Ah those were the days. Severe WX in the plains seemed so much simpler. At Oklahoma we had the mesonet and plenty-o-soundings to pour though, looking for the best theta-e values and the best mucape.

Down here in the tropics I miss the beauty of a tilted thunderstorm approaching from 50 miles away.


This is quite extradorinary to watch. The visual of a plains thunderstorm rolling through the tropics will get me to sleep tonight!

MW

[RL3AO]

URNT15 KNHC 020524
AF305 0206A ERIKA HDOB 11 20090902
051500 1715N 05829W 8433 01577 0108 +175 +113 136019 021 036 000 00
051530 1717N 05827W 8430 01579 0109 +175 +114 135020 021 035 000 00
051600 1718N 05826W 8429 01582 0110 +173 +116 140022 023 035 000 00
051630 1719N 05824W 8429 01583 0112 +171 +118 144023 024 034 000 00
051700 1721N 05823W 8429 01583 0114 +170 +120 142025 025 035 000 00
051730 1722N 05821W 8429 01583 0113 +172 +121 138025 026 036 000 00
051800 1723N 05820W 8429 01584 0115 +170 +123 142027 027 035 002 00
051830 1725N 05818W 8439 01577 0116 +173 +123 145025 026 036 002 00
051900 1726N 05817W 8438 01574 0112 +174 +123 139026 026 035 002 03
051930 1727N 05815W 8425 01588 0113 +169 +124 136027 029 035 003 00
052000 1727N 05814W 8430 01582 0113 +170 +123 137025 026 035 001 00
052030 1728N 05812W 8429 01582 0111 +170 +122 134025 026 036 001 00
052100 1729N 05811W 8429 01582 0110 +172 +122 134024 025 037 000 00
052130 1730N 05809W 8429 01582 0113 +170 +122 132023 023 038 000 00
052200 1730N 05808W 8429 01580 0115 +166 +122 133024 025 036 002 00
052230 1731N 05806W 8429 01582 0117 +164 +122 131024 025 030 002 00
052300 1732N 05805W 8432 01582 0117 +165 +121 127025 027 032 000 00
052330 1733N 05804W 8428 01583 0113 +170 +121 128027 028 032 000 00
052400 1733N 05802W 8433 01580 0114 +170 +120 123029 032 030 001 00
052430 1734N 05801W 8426 01585 0112 +170 +120 125032 034 031 001 00
$$
;

[RL3AO]

[MWatkins]

GFDL bending west, not a surprise given the GFS solution.

Code: Select all

WHXX04 KWBC 020517
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA     06L
INITIAL TIME   0Z SEP  2
DISCLAIMER ...  THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE.  IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.  PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR        LATITUDE        LONGITUDE        HEADING/SPEED(KT)
   0            17.2             57.3           315./ 1.9
   6            17.4             58.2           278./ 8.0
  12            17.6             58.8           292./ 6.5
  18            18.0             59.4           303./ 6.6
  24            18.2             60.0           292./ 6.0
  30            18.5             60.6           294./ 6.2
  36            18.9             61.2           298./ 7.2
  42            19.1             62.0           286./ 7.5
  48            19.3             62.5           294./ 5.2
  54            19.4             63.2           278./ 6.7
  60            19.6             63.8           289./ 6.0
  66            20.0             64.6           293./ 8.9
  72            20.2             65.1           298./ 4.9
  78            20.4             65.8           284./ 6.3
  84            20.9             66.4           308./ 7.5
  90            21.3             67.0           307./ 7.9
  96            21.7             67.6           307./ 6.3
 102            22.3             68.2           312./ 8.2
 108            22.9             68.8           310./ 8.3
 114            23.5             69.5           311./ 8.6
 120            23.9             70.2           304./ 8.0
 126            24.5             71.0           309./ 8.9