ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[Bocadude85]

what does the latest euro show?

Recurves around 75w which is farther west then yesterdays 12z run

[Weatherboy1]

what does the latest euro show?

This loop updates twice a day, with the next model run usually available around 3 p.m. EST. Still showing a recurve scenario, but further west than previous runs ...

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9090200!!/

[Evil Jeremy]

The advisory in 45 minutes should be very interesting. I frankly would not be surprised to see winds go down to 40 MPH citing the disorganization.

[Weatherfreak000]

The NHC Track is now currently significantly farther North of most of the models and still showing recurve...regardless of what EURO says the NHC will conform to a consensus track...which would have it 6 days away from any sort of SFL landfall....still a ton of time...alot can happen.

At this point EURO in my opinion doesnt seem like the model to follow...if I recall correctly this situation happened with Ike before the EURO conformed...if the EURO ALWAYS shows a recurve it for the most part will always be right...because that is always the most likely scenario for storms in the open Atlantic.

[storms NC]

the B virgin Islands are in the path from what I can see by the visible loop. I know it is no much of a TS but it would be to them.

[sunny]

I think you'll be just fine in Baton Rouge.

Well these shifts mean I will definitely be keeping an eye on this one.

With Erika, yes. But don't discount damage being done in BR due to tropcial sytems. Gustav did some damage and so did Andrew.

[Stormcenter]

Oh I totally agree with you nothing is definite especially in the tropics
but I still believe Erika will have to deal (as have other systems this season)
with major obstacles. I guess time will tell.

But conditions will only get worse and not better for Erika as she moves westward. IMO

Yea well, 2 nights ago we thought that the shear would obliterate 94L. Conditions keep on changing, so nothing is definite.

[Portastorm]

There will be a trough (another one) in the GOM sometime next week that will bring some more nice healthy shear into the area. The funny thing is this thing may not even make that far west to begin with anyway.

There will? Where? I just looked at the 500mb and 850 mb patterns for next week from the last few GFS runs and there is no trough in the Gulf. The 0z run deepens a trough about Sept. 12th other than that ... the pattern is more ridging than anything else.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

StormCenter,

I don't like to hear talk of another front coming unless it parks itself off the east coast of Florida. Approaching fronts in the Gulf with storms coming into Florida gives the west coast of Florida its only real threats from things coming in from the south.

i.e. if this cuts across southern Florida, very little impact from land interaction will occur. Heck, storms actually often strengthen over south Florida because of the swamps! Then into the gulf and a recurve because of an approaching front puts a storm into the bend...making the west coast on the NE, messy side of a storm.

At this point, at least for Conus concerns, lets hope the BAMMS play out and send this into Hispanola and a slow death. Although I also don't want to wish any copious amounts of rain on poor Haiti. They had a hell of a year last year as it was!

Maybe shear will just kill this.

I had a dream last night that Erika pulled a Charlie-esque move --into the Gulf and then turned N & NE by a late approaching front. Everyone expected it to go into the panhandle, but it instead went inland at Clearwater, FL pretty abruptly. Would that be dreamcasting vs. -removed-? -that wasn't even the worst of the nightmare though, even though the storm damage/coastal flooding was bad. But the worst part of the dream was that the shelters and local area all went rampant with Swine flu since folks were either crammed close together there or trying to work together to clean up neighborhoods and there wasn't good medical treatment available (overwhelmed hospitals) so many deaths resulted...less by the hurricane and more because of all the untreated flu (untreatable under post-storm conditions)!

I obviously worry about too many things.

[msbee]

the problem with the VI and us northern islands will be the rain. it doesn't take much to flood us out

[vbhoutex]

With my amateur satellite skills what is pushing this storm further south than planned? The ULL low to her NE?

I'm not so sure that she is actually moving SW as opposed to the recon picking up on different vortexes within the broad low level circulation and not necessarily finding the "exact center" of the circulation. This is from Jeff Lindner's email this am:

Track:

We are heading down a complicated nightmare with this one. The system has tracked almost due W if not WSW over night…however this may be more of NHC and the aircraft tracking a vortex around the broad center. Problem with this is that the current vortex being track could dissipate at any time and a new center could form within the deeper convection to the SE…in fact this may be in progress at this time. Until a decent center firms up the track guidance will be only of modest confidence and lend marginal support. The general steering pattern is off toward the WNW for the short term and then complications with the pattern over the western Atlantic on the placement of the sub-tropical ridge and approaching eastern US trough lead to even higher uncertainty.



The tropical models and dynamical consensus and ensembles all are south of the official NHC forecast track. In addition, the global models including the GFS is well S and W of the official track. The HWRF and GFDL tracks are more to the right with the HWRF well to the east of NHC. However these models have been trending westward with time over the past 24 hours and several including the GFDL and HWRF are suggesting a westerly bending toward the end of the forecast period.



For now will go with a slow short term W motion followed by a slight bend toward the WNW as the system becomes somewhat better organized. Forecast confidence after 48 hours is fairly low as based on the current motion… even the 24 hour forecast could be horribly off especially given any center relocations.

[Bocadude85]

Latest

Not looking that great this morning

[Stormcenter]

This is an excerpt from the NWS discussion this morning out of N.O.

THE OTHER FEATURE IS TS ERIKA. DEFINITELY NOT AN IMMEDIATE THREAT
IF AT ALL. A STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE
AREA BY THE START OF THE WEEK. IF ERIKA WERE TO GET CLOSE TO THE
GULF...THE UPPER TROUGH WOULD HAVE AN EFFECT ON IT. OFCOURSE TIMING
IS ALWAYS THE ISSUE.

There will be a trough (another one) in the GOM sometime next week that will bring some more nice healthy shear into the area. The funny thing is this thing may not even make that far west to begin with anyway.

There will? Where? I just looked at the 500mb and 850 mb patterns for next week from the last few GFS runs and there is no trough in the Gulf. The 0z run deepens a trough about Sept. 12th other than that ... the pattern is more ridging than anything else.

[Frank2]

All of the above is depending on whether there's anything left of this system - it's not even a decent-looking TD at this point:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

['CaneFreak]

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/tffrwindow.html

For those of you that know how to read a sounding...here is the problem...DRY AIR...above 800 mb, the dry air is ENTRENCHED in the column...I pointed it out a few days ago and it is still there...but...you know...nobody listens to me...

[Frank2]

MGC,

Yes, it's another weakling - perhaps down to TD status in the next 30 minutes...

Frank

[Stormcenter]

I worry a lot too now after Ike, Rita, Katrina and so on.

StormCenter,

I don't like to hear talk of another front coming unless it parks itself off the east coast of Florida. Approaching fronts in the Gulf with storms coming into Florida gives the west coast of Florida its only real threats from things coming in from the south.

i.e. if this cuts across southern Florida, very little impact from land interaction will occur. Heck, storms actually often strengthen over south Florida because of the swamps! Then into the gulf and a recurve because of an approaching front puts a storm into the bend...making the west coast on the NE, messy side of a storm.

At this point, at least for Conus concerns, lets hope the BAMMS play out and send this into Hispanola and a slow death. Although I also don't want to wish any copious amounts of rain on poor Haiti. They had a hell of a year last year as it was!

Maybe shear will just kill this.

I had a dream last night that Erika pulled a Charlie-esque move --into the Gulf and then turned N & NE by a late approaching front. Everyone expected it to go into the panhandle, but it instead went inland at Clearwater, FL pretty abruptly. Would that be dreamcasting vs. -removed-? -that wasn't even the worst of the nightmare though, even though the storm damage/coastal flooding was bad. But the worst part of the dream was that the shelters and local area all went rampant with Swine flu since folks were either crammed close together there or trying to work together to clean up neighborhoods and there wasn't good medical treatment available (overwhelmed hospitals) so many deaths resulted...less by the hurricane and more because of all the untreated flu (untreatable under post-storm conditions)!

I obviously worry about too many things.

[Weatherfreak000]

Erika will NOT be downgraded....it is merely dealing with some Dry Air intrusion and multiple vortices...seriously you guys need to stop flip flopping every 12 hours. This time yesterday we couldnt help but remark on how damn GOOD it looked.

[HURAKAN]

The center found by RECON is under the convection or very close to it, not the one over the Lesser Antilles. Strong convection is developing over the estimated position of the center, therefore, the NHC won't downgrade the system to TD without RECON information.

[srainhoutx]

With my amateur satellite skills what is pushing this storm further south than planned? The ULL low to her NE?

I'm not so sure that she is actually moving SW as opposed to the recon picking up on different vortexes within the broad low level circulation and not necessarily finding the "exact center" of the circulation. This is from Jeff Lindner's email this am:

Track:

We are heading down a complicated nightmare with this one. The system has tracked almost due W if not WSW over night…however this may be more of NHC and the aircraft tracking a vortex around the broad center. Problem with this is that the current vortex being track could dissipate at any time and a new center could form within the deeper convection to the SE…in fact this may be in progress at this time. Until a decent center firms up the track guidance will be only of modest confidence and lend marginal support. The general steering pattern is off toward the WNW for the short term and then complications with the pattern over the western Atlantic on the placement of the sub-tropical ridge and approaching eastern US trough lead to even higher uncertainty.



The tropical models and dynamical consensus and ensembles all are south of the official NHC forecast track. In addition, the global models including the GFS is well S and W of the official track. The HWRF and GFDL tracks are more to the right with the HWRF well to the east of NHC. However these models have been trending westward with time over the past 24 hours and several including the GFDL and HWRF are suggesting a westerly bending toward the end of the forecast period.



For now will go with a slow short term W motion followed by a slight bend toward the WNW as the system becomes somewhat better organized. Forecast confidence after 48 hours is fairly low as based on the current motion… even the 24 hour forecast could be horribly off especially given any center relocations.

Glad you posted Jeff's thoughts,vbhoutex. Very good explanation of all that is complicated about this system IMHO.