ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA (06L)

[funster]

If there is still a center of circulation somewhere then Erika can not be trusted to simply fade away. It is still September. But at least she's a hot mess and not a menacing hurricane bearing down on a populated area.

[Emmett_Brown]

In the IR, perhaps the start of another convective blowup at 17.3N 60.4W. Might be nothing, but might be the start of another round of convective madness...

[Dean4Storms]

Convection firing around the naked Circ. just west of the islands tonight!

[SapphireSea]

I checked the soundings around the storm and further downstream the track as they were a few hours ago. It all looks pretty unfavorable although nothing very lethal. This is probably why they used "could" in the wording, since it could do so as early as TONIGHT/TOMM MORNING. However they do EXPECT it to weaken as they have it doing so in the forecast (due to land interaction). Local mets are nonchalant here in FL because I bet they believe the land interaction will be a KO punch.

Im not bullish on the storm but I don't think it will be a total KO punch from DR. I think alot of the convection will remain with it as long as it is sheared the way it is.

[Dionne]

The 11PM advisory should be interesting.

Friends on St Kitts have stopped posting. The electric grid is marginal on SKN. With the wind field primarily to the east (NHC recon).....it could be a long night on SKN.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it sure looks like Erika is going to slide into the Caribbean Sea.

[canes04]

To much energy with this system to dissapate, I think she will regroup tonight and hold on until conditions improve.
If she can make north of PR anythings possible.

[wzrgirl1]

anyone have the link to the latest spaghetti plots?

[webke]

She's flaring up again around 17.5 N and 60.5 W

[jabber]

From my very formally untrained eyes this storm is done. Even IF it makes a come back tonight which would not surprise me its future path is riddled at best.

[OuterBanker]

Wow, the 18z gfdl has written Erika's epitaph. Yesterday she was to a cat 2 on that model. Rip Erika.

[Wx_Warrior]

http://www.spaghettimodels.com/

[N2FSU]

Model plots:http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=06&av=4

[srainhoutx]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~acevans/models/index.html

[cycloneye]

00 UTC Best Track

Mantains as a Tropical Storm 35kts.

AL, 06, 2009090300, , BEST, 0, 160N, 620W, 35, 1008, TS

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 009.invest

[M_0331]

http://www.spaghettimodels.com/

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/ look under frame 1 for early & late

[Aric Dunn]

Wow, the 18z gfdl has written Erika's epitaph. Yesterday she was to a cat 2 on that model. Rip Erika.

not surprised it takes it across DR.. only a some little hills.

10,000 feet lol

[jaxfladude]

Wow, the 18z gfdl has written Erika's epitaph. Yesterday she was to a cat 2 on that model. Rip Erika.

not surprised it takes it across DR.. only a some little hills.

10,000 feet lol

Bad news for DR, prayers.

[DanKellFla]

As a remnant low, will Erika be pushed North or will it end up travelling east?

[terrapintransit]

As a remnant low, will Erika be pushed North or will it end up travelling east?

EAST?? You meant West right?

[webke]

Hope I don't double post again, but that flare up is growing

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.html