ATL: Invest 98L

[Gustywind]

[brunota2003]

It could form into a tropical repression??? Ahhhh!

[StormTracker]

Looks like it ingested a "dry-air bomb" and exploded since shear doesn't seem to be a factor!
LLC still clearly visible at this time(naked), IMHO of course, but then again what do I know, I'm still learning and always will be!!! Thanks to everyone here @ S2K!!!

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

[HURAKAN]

641
ABNT20 KNHC 191732
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED IS LOCATED
ABOUT 475 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY AND THE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION
SCHEDULED FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CANCELED. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[sunnyday]

I agree with Sanibel who said that the season could be over. To go a step further, I never noticed a beginning. While I am very thankful that no major hurricanes have hit the U.S., this season has been a royal bore.

[Gustywind]

It could form into a tropical repression??? Ahhhh!

That's not so far from a depression, it's a type of, don't you tkink that?

[OURAGAN]

The season is is over, see you next year, Dr Gray says nothing will form the next fifteen days , from september 19 th to October 4 th, read:

http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/Incl ... 4_2009.pdf

[OURAGAN]

But 98L, is clearly at 13.0 N and 43W, moving slowly westward to 270° W

[Gustywind]

The season is is over, see you next year, Dr Gray says nothing will form the next fifteen days , from september 19 th to October 4 th, read:

http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/Incl ... 4_2009.pdf

Be prudent Ouragan, we never know in the tropics . You live in Guadeloupe, so don't forget José in 1999 and thus Lenny, Omar anything can happen until November 30 th. Don't you are underestimated Mother Nature? Whereas i will be glad to have a quick ending season as usual but let's be more prudent, each season is somewhat special.
Dr Gray give us a better idea of the overall tendency but can't deal with Mother Nature's secrets (i tkink, or maybe it's a mistake from my part? ) in my humble opinion...Let's wait and see as we have 2 months ahead to confirm or not Dr Gray predictions. Just the opinion of an amateur .

[Gustywind]

But 98L, is clearly at 13.0 N and 43W, moving slowly westward to 270° W

Any links for that Hurakan? What is your reasoning? Tkanks we will appreciate

[Gustywind]

Invest #98
Tropical Disturbance Summary
Invest #98
http://tropics.hamweather.com/2009/atla ... est98.html
Location: Central Atlantic Lat: 13.5N Lon: 42.5W Moving: WNW 8 mph (7 kts) Pressure: 29.77 in (1008 mb)

Invest #98 Track History
Date Position Moving Speed Pressure Winds
(UTC) Lat Lon mph (kts) in (mb) mph (kts)
1800 SAT SEP 19 13.5N 42.5W WNW 8 (7) 29.77 (1008) 29 (25)



From SSD: Yoyoing time?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html
Atlantic Ocean Basin:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
19/1745 UTC 13.0N 42.6W T1.5/2.0 98L
19/1145 UTC 13.8N 42.2W T2.0/2.0 98L
19/0600 UTC 13.0N 41.3W T2.0/2.0 98L

[Gustywind]

Just surfing, that's curious...the weather site of http://www.stormpulse.com/ have 98L at 11,8N 43,7W at 2PM ??? Any remarks?

[HURAKAN]

WTNT01 KNGU 191401
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 191400Z SEP 09//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.3N 41.7W TO 15.1N 45.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 191200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.3N 41.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 41.8W IS CURRENTLY
MOVING WEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS. INFRARED METSAT IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA
OF CONVECTION THAT HAS BECOME BETTER OREGANIZED WITHIN THE PAST 12
HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY ENCOUNTERING 5 TO 10 KNOTS OF
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES OVER RELATIVELY
WARM WATER (82-85F) , CONVECTION WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED AND AID
IN TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 201400Z.//

[cycloneye]

Here is a great loop.Dry air caused the weakening.Will it come back at DMAX?

[Gustywind]

[HURAKAN]

Waiting for D-Max

[Gustywind]

[BigA]

Starting to fire convection near the low level center as the night goes on. If this continues, 98L could eventually find itself in a state of Grace (pardon the pun). But first, of course, it must show persistent convection.

[cycloneye]

8 PM Tropical Weather Outlook

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS
CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Gustywind]

98L
Code Orange