Global model runs discussion

[HurricaneRobert]

There's something tropical over Hawaii in this GFS run:

[Derek Ortt]

see the Hawaiian thread for a more realistic USA threat

[Macrocane]

The Euro develops a closed low in the Caribbean in 192 hours, then it strengthens the low into a tropical strom that makes landfall on Hispaniola:

Euro 240 h

It is on the long range so I wouldn't be surprised if on the next run it develops nothing.

[Steve H.]

GFS also shows development in the Fl Straits/Bahamas in the same general time period. We'll have to see if there is any trend here.

[wxman57]

GFS also shows development in the Fl Straits/Bahamas in the same general time period. We'll have to see if there is any trend here.

Yes, GFS forecasts a low in the FL Straits/Bahamas - beneath 60-80kt SW-WSW upper-level winds. Certainly not a prediction of a tropical cyclone.

[Macrocane]

It seems that the chance for tropical development on the Caribbean is increasing, there is some model agreement about lowering pressures on that area:

Canadian 144 h

GFS 168 h

Euro 192 tropical cyclone over Hispaniola

[cycloneye]

Now we are talking as the timeframes are less than 200 hours,not those over 300 hour different scenarios.Lets see what the future runs show to see consistency.

[tolakram]

I am thinking that the favorable conditions that exist in the EPAC and are helping Rick will move into the Western Carib and give us the final shot at anything forming. I think the real unknown, though, is how much shear will be around once those more favorable conditions exist?

I'm betting a lot.

[hurricanetrack]

I will be a positive Pete and say "a little" (shear). Perhaps an October surprise awaits, perhaps not. We are about to find out.

[cycloneye]

The 00z EURO continues to show it but in this run in the NW tip of Cuba/Florida straits.

00z ECMWF

00z GFS pops up a feature near the Bahamas.

00z GFS

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like something of some fashion could be developing anywhere from the Gulf to the Bahamas, models are jumping all over the place.

[wxman57]

All in a very high-shear environment along that cold front, which would indicate a nontropical frontal low.

[cycloneye]

This is the setup that the EURO had in the 168 hour timeframe at the 00z run.

[cycloneye]

12z EURO has a hurricane in Western Caribbean

It all starts in 96 hours,see loop below.I would not dismiss this scenario because of climatology and this model has been stellar in 2009.

12z ECMWF loop

[Ivanhater]

uh oh..This run shows the front bypassing it and a building ridge off the east coast

[hurricanetrack]

The Euro has trended stronger and stronger for 3 runs now. Perhaps this is the one that will remind everyone that El Nino or not, 2009 season or not, it only takes one. Or, it could end up being nothing. We got 10 days until we know 100% for sure which scenario plays out.

[cycloneye]

What a way to close this season if it pans out.But more support from other models is needed.

[Frank2]

Uh-oh...

I told everyone the season wasn't over just yet (of course I've been saying it probably is)...

LOL

Seriously, in the past hour Dr. Lyons (TWC) did mention the possibility of a low pressure system forming in the western Caribbean - we'll see what happens...

Of course, next Saturday is the four year anniversary of Hurricane Wilma, so you never know, though the only favorable environment ATTM is in the SW Caribbean, though that area usually remains favorable year-round...

Frank

[jinftl]

Dr. Jeff Masters discussing the potential for development in his blog this morning:

A Western Caribbean tropical storm coming?
In the Atlantic, there have been some modest flare-ups of heavy thunderstorm clusters in the extreme Southwest Caribbean off the coasts of Nicaragua and Panama over the past day. This activity has been too disorganized and limited in extent to prove a threat to develop. However, for the past three days, the ECMWF model has been predicting the eventual development of a tropical storm in this region, sometime during the period October 23 - 25. The GFS and NOGAPS models have also been hinting that conditions may become favorable for tropical storm formation in the Western Caribbean early next week, and we should anticipate the possibility of a late-season tropical storm forming.

The regions most likely to be affected by such a storm would be Honduras, Nicaragua, western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, South Florida, and the Bahamas. Stay tuned.

Jeff Masters

[HurricaneRobert]

Something in the mid-Atlantic that heads off to the Azores.