Hurricane in Western Caribbean?

[wyq614]

Interesting to see that Cuban numeric model MM5 tries to develop something in SW Caribbean Sea, too.

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... s/presion/

[jconsor]

Model consensus on W. Caribbean development is increasing. The 00Z GFS and Canadian are showing development for the first time. I acknowledge the Canadian has lots of false alarms, but the fact that it is now showing robust development after over 5 runs showing no development is significant.

Meanwhile, the experimental probability of tropical cyclone formation in the Caribbean is the highest it has been all season:

[hurricanetrack]

Now I am starting to think this might actually happen. Boy, when the Euro stood basically alone and was soooooooo out there with hurricane Bad Bleep it looked very suspect. Now, the GFS with its anticyclone building over the region and the Canadian finally signing up, perhaps we have one more to track. And, the new Euro showing a more reasonable mild tropical cyclone. I would think that by 8am the yellow circle will make its first appearance in that region in a long, long time.

Now, let's hope that this does not get out of hand with some horrible late October hurricane. The old saying "be careful what you wish for" really holds true when wanting to see tropical development, no matter the reason. Sometimes the genie gets out of the bottle in a very bad way.

[cycloneye]

Now I am starting to think this might actually happen. Boy, when the Euro stood basically alone and was soooooooo out there with hurricane Bad Bleep it looked very suspect. Now, the GFS with its anticyclone building over the region and the Canadian finally signing up, perhaps we have one more to track. And, the new Euro showing a more reasonable mild tropical cyclone. I would think that by 8am the yellow circle will make its first appearance in that region in a long, long time.

Now, let's hope that this does not get out of hand with some horrible late October hurricane. The old saying "be careful what you wish for" really holds true when wanting to see tropical development, no matter the reason. Sometimes the genie gets out of the bottle in a very bad way.

Mark,I say another thing,its invest worthy now.

[hurricanetrack]

You sure would think so! Looking at that organized convection it seems like a yellow hatched circle, oval or otherwise is warranted.

We will know soon.

[Blown Away]

Not sure how the NHC does not put out a Code Yellow and I'm seeing a general cyclonic rotation. Nice if we can get this area to Invest status so we can get more model runs.

[gatorcane]

This has got to be given a code about 20 minutes. Good job Euro once again.

Certainly this one needs close watching, especially now that models are starting to join the Euro and a general north track appears quite possible.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 19 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN


Not a surprise the no mention of it as this will be a slow proccess.

[tolakram]

Don;t forget to look at the shear. It's a tad on the high side. :o

[Evil Jeremy]

Wow, this came out of nowhere lol! At least for me, and likely many others who have given up on the season. I agree, this should be a code yellow. Perhaps at 2PM.

[jlauderdal]

Bill Kneely on TWC just mentioned that the dewpoint in Cancun has fallen into the 50's! That is amazing and demonstrates the power of this front.

it was powerful but ridging is going to build back in later today so what is going on now will be a faded memory in 48 hours, back to the warm weather and deep easterly flow in southern florida, cold weather was great but i have had enough, time for a warmup and give the tropics one more chance

[Blown Away]

HAPPY HALLOWEEN SFL!

[HURAKAN]

This is from the Rick forecast

[Blown Away]

Tracks over the high ocean heat content.

[boca]

The euro is back on the 00run. A much weaker system over Key West.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9101900!!/

[hurricanetrack]

Looks like this will take some time. Wilma took what seemed like forever. Perhaps it will be 3-5 days before we really see anything significant develop- assuming it does at all. This almost certainly the last shot this season has at a significant tropical cyclone affecting land west of 70W in the Atlantic Basin.

[wxman57]

Made a couple of 168hr charts from the 00Z models. Note that I plotted sea level pressure at 1/2 millibar increments. GFS not too different from ECMWF. Low develops later this week, blocked by high pressure to the north at first, then high pressure moves east, allowing a slow northward track. Very common mid to late October development scenario. Florida is often threatened by such storms. Cuba and the Bahamas are probably hit more often by these late storms that develop in the western Caribbean, though. I'd pay close attention if I was in south Florida or the Bahamas. But we're talking 7 days out at this point.

168hr 00Z GFS:


ECMWF, same time:

[Derek Ortt]

one thing to remember, you often need a pressure of ~1000mb to have a TD in this part of the basin this time of year

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[jconsor]

1005 mb is a more realistic average pressure for tropical depressions forming in the W. Caribbean in Oct or Nov. Of the 17 tropical depressions that formed in W. Caribbean in Oct and Nov since 1980, I can only find 2 that started out with a pressure lower than 1004 mb - Lenny (1003 mb) and Mitch (1002 mb). 9 of the 17 had a pressure over 1005 mb.