WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

[oaba09]

Hey oaba09, is it raining over in Valenzuela right now?

Yeah....not that hard yet.....How about in your location?

[drdavisjr]

Hey oaba09, is it raining over in Valenzuela right now?

Yeah....not that hard yet.....How about in your location?

Yes, very hard. With thunder and lightning...

[oaba09]

let me revise that...the wind here is starting to pick up a little..I'm also seeing a lot of lightning

[drdavisjr]

let me revise that...the wind here is starting to pick up a little..I'm also seeing a lot of lightning

HURAKAN, can we expect this on and off till the storm passes?

[ricmood]

It is cloudy with lightning here in Laguna.

I dont understand these:
Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 195 km/hr
USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 175 km/hr

PAGASA should be down to 150km/hr by now. Are they overstating? Trying to exaggerate things to better prepare the people of Northern Luzon?

[drdavisjr]

The street outside our house is already flooding...

[drdavisjr]

It is cloudy with lightning here in Laguna.

I dont understand these:
Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 195 km/hr
USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 175 km/hr

PAGASA should be down to 150km/hr by now. Are they overstating? Trying to exaggerate things to better prepare the people of Northern Luzon?

You guys stay safe down there...are you close to the Laguna de Bay?

[ricmood]

The street outside our house is already flooding...

I think it's the effect of Intertropical Convergence Zone

[drdavisjr]

The street outside our house is already flooding...

I think it's the effect of Intertropical Convergence Zone

Ah ok, you're probably right...

[oaba09]

It is cloudy with lightning here in Laguna.

I dont understand these:
Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 195 km/hr
USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 175 km/hr

PAGASA should be down to 150km/hr by now. Are they overstating? Trying to exaggerate things to better prepare the people of Northern Luzon?

You guys stay safe down there...are you close to the Laguna de Bay?

Yeah probably...They have a habit of doing that...

[ricmood]

It is cloudy with lightning here in Laguna.

I dont understand these:
Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 195 km/hr
USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 175 km/hr

PAGASA should be down to 150km/hr by now. Are they overstating? Trying to exaggerate things to better prepare the people of Northern Luzon?

You guys stay safe down there...are you close to the Laguna de Bay?

About 4-5km away. But our area is a bit high. We did not experience flooding during Ondoy, even in the street. I hope it stays that way. But we are panicky because of what we saw on TV.

[drdavisjr]

About 4-5km away. But our area is a bit high. We did not experience flooding during Ondoy, even in the street. I hope it stays that way. But we are panicky because of what we saw on TV.

During Ondoy, we had probably 7-8 ft of water on our street. Our house is a little higher that the street and we had to turn our main breakers off because the electrical sockets were underwater. When the rains stopped at about 5pm, we had 3 foot of water on our 1st floor.

[metenthusiast]

My dialysis treatment was scheduled for Thursday, I changed it for tomorrow, Wednesday. PAGASA said that it would start raining by tomorrow, and its already raining here...

My question is that was I wrong on re-scheduling? Changing it to Wednesday rather than Thursday? I anticipated that Lupit may hit land on Thursday, and that it would be the worst day to have my treatment...

Did I make an error on judgment?

[oaba09]

My dialysis treatment was scheduled for Thursday, I changed it for tomorrow, Wednesday. PAGASA said that it would start raining by tomorrow, and its already raining here...

My question is that was I wrong on re-scheduling? Changing it to Wednesday rather than Thursday? I anticipated that Lupit may hit land on Thursday, and that it would be the worst day to have my treatment...

Did I make an error on judgment?

Well the landfall is on thursday so I think you made the correct decision

[drdavisjr]

My dialysis treatment was scheduled for Thursday, I changed it for tomorrow, Wednesday. PAGASA said that it would start raining by tomorrow, and its already raining here...

My question is that was I wrong on re-scheduling? Changing it to Wednesday rather than Thursday? I anticipated that Lupit may hit land on Thursday, and that it would be the worst day to have my treatment...

Did I make an error on judgment?

According to JTWC, landfall should be around 9pm our time Thursday night.

[cycloneye]

12 UTC JMA Warning

New track does not make landfall at Luzon.Pass close to its north.

TY 0920 (Lupit)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 20 October 2009
<Analyses at 20/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N20°30'(20.5°)
E128°55'(128.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 440km(240NM)

<Forecast for 21/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°35'(19.6°)
E125°30'(125.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area Wide 280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 22/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°05'(19.1°)
E123°25'(123.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 430km(230NM)

<Forecast for 23/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°00'(19.0°)
E121°50'(121.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
Storm warning area Wide 500km(270NM)

[drdavisjr]

You know guys, if you look at the size of this system, including the outer rain bands, we are going to be affected - not to the extent that N. Luzon is, but I don't think we'll be completely spared. I've said all along and I'll say it again, it's the rain that is so devastating to us, not so much the winds.

[metenthusiast]

12 UTC JMA Warning

New track does not make landfall at Luzon.Pass close to its north.

TY 0920 (Lupit)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 20 October 2009
<Analyses at 20/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N20°30'(20.5°)
E128°55'(128.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 440km(240NM)

<Forecast for 21/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°35'(19.6°)
E125°30'(125.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area Wide 280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 22/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°05'(19.1°)
E123°25'(123.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 430km(230NM)

<Forecast for 23/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°00'(19.0°)
E121°50'(121.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
Storm warning area Wide 500km(270NM)

That looks interesting. Does that mean it would miss N. Luzon?

[metenthusiast]

My dialysis treatment was scheduled for Thursday, I changed it for tomorrow, Wednesday. PAGASA said that it would start raining by tomorrow, and its already raining here...

My question is that was I wrong on re-scheduling? Changing it to Wednesday rather than Thursday? I anticipated that Lupit may hit land on Thursday, and that it would be the worst day to have my treatment...

Did I make an error on judgment?

According to JTWC, landfall should be around 9pm our time Thursday night.

Thanks guys!

[drdavisjr]

New track does not make landfall at Luzon.Pass close to its north.

That's cool, but this storm has been full of surprises. I think I'll stay tuned for further developments