ATL : INVEST 95L

[Evil Jeremy]

If the shear relaxes, this could have a (slight) chance, as it would be over warm waters. Systems have been known to blossom in this area. Still though, I don't expect anything more than some showers out of this.

[pojo]

I don't see the need to fly this Tropical Trash...clusters are all over the place, low pressure system in association and with a possible LLC/MLC....... but I'm gueesing the forecasters are bored and don't want budget cuts for next fiscal year.

However, it may work out in favor for Recon if they do fly the system...... Invest training for the crew.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I don't see the need to fly this Tropical Trash...clusters are all over the place, low pressure system in association and with a possible LLC/MLC....... but I'm gueesing the forecasters are bored and don't want budget cuts for next fiscal year.

However, it may work out in favor for Recon if they do fly the system...... Invest training for the crew.

Tell us how you really feel..

[pojo]

I don't see the need to fly this Tropical Trash...clusters are all over the place, low pressure system in association and with a possible LLC/MLC....... but I'm gueesing the forecasters are bored and don't want budget cuts for next fiscal year.

However, it may work out in favor for Recon if they do fly the system...... Invest training for the crew.

Tell us how you really feel..

We haven't flown a system, let alone a storm in the ATL basin for a while and because this system does have potential to pull a October N'oreaster, I can see why the NHC and forecasters want this system under adult supervision.... but I have no control on whether Recon is flying.... that is the NHC.

[HurricaneBelle]

I don't see the need to fly this Tropical Trash...

I love it. "Tropical Trash" needs to become a regular part of the Storm2K lexicon.

[cycloneye]

12z CMC develops it after it moves past Florida going NE.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED BETWEEN THE NORTH COAST OF
EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. THIS LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST ACCOMPANIED BY DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SYSTEM
BECOMES ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT IN A DAY OR TWO.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[StormClouds63]

"Tropical trash" ... well-put. Even Dr. McCoy couldn't save this mess. Maybe the 2009 season should be remembered as the year of "tropical trash." Sounds good to me. After 2005 and 2008, sounds very good, indeed.

[AdamFirst]

I wonder if this guy posts here...

http://www.finheaven.com/forums/f2/aler ... 60756.html

Claims that 95L has a good chance to become Tropical Storm Ida and may change the Dolphins game on Sunday. I had to drop some knowledge...amateur knowledge, but still knowledge.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I wonder if this guy posts here...

http://www.finheaven.com/forums/f2/aler ... 60756.html

Claims that 95L has a good chance to become Tropical Storm Ida and may change the Dolphins game on Sunday. I had to drop some knowledge...amateur knowledge, but still knowledge.

I think his 1st problem is he is a Dolphins fan....

[sfwx]

000
FXUS62 KMFL 231827
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
227 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CONTINUES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE ERN GULF
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A STACKED LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS
CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST. THESE FEATURES WILL BE THE KEY
PLAYERS IN THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEIR
EXACT TRACK WILL LARGELY DETERMINE JUST HOW MUCH TSTM CHANCES
INCREASE.

GFS/ECMWF BRING THE WEAK SFC AND MID/UPR LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS W TO
NEAR S FL LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. GFS SHOWS AN ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE SURGE WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH PWATS INCREASING TO JUST
OVER 2 INCHES ALONG THE SE CST...BUT HIGHER VALUES REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE. THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
POPS TOMORROW. IF THE LOW TRACKS A LITTLE FURTHER W...WE WOULD BE IN
MOIST SERLY FLOW WITH HIGHER TSTM CHANCES...BUT IF IT STAYS JUST
OFFSHORE THEN WE WOULD BE IN WEAK WRLY FLOW AND WEAK PSBL SUBSIDENCE
ON THE W SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. EITHER WAY...THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST
SOME INCREASE IN SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY DUE TO SOME INCREASE IN STABILITY
ACROSS THE REGION.

GFS/ECMWF STALL THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE FL
PANHANDLE NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE SUNDAY...AND THIS IS WHERE THE
GFS/ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT. GFS BRINGS A CHUNK OF ENERGY
TOWARDS/OVER THE REGION FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT...WITH A BIG MOISTURE INCREASE AND INCREASE IN TSTM CHANCES
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THESE FEATURES COMBINE ACROSS THE REGION.
ECMWF BRINGS THIS ENERGY MORE NW INTO THE GULF...ALLOWING A BIT MORE
RIDGING TO BUILD W ACROSS SOUTH FL AND SHOVING THE STALLED FRONT
BACK NORTH INTO THE BIG BEND REGION WITH DEEP SERLY FLOW...KEEPING HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE LAKE REGION OR NORTH. THE NAM AGREES WITH
THIS SCENARIO...AND THE GFS SEEMS TO BE INFLUENCED BY CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK. HPC SEEMS TO FAVOR THE ECMWF/NAM MORE WHICH MAKES SENSE
SO WILL NOT DRASTICALLY INCREASE POPS AT THIS TIME.




DISCUSSION/MARINE...STRASSBERG
FIRE WX/AVIATION...JR/BNB

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 231840
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1840 UTC FRI OCT 23 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952009) 20091023 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091023 1800 091024 0600 091024 1800 091025 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.0N 75.8W 22.7N 77.8W 23.5N 79.6W 24.3N 81.1W
BAMD 22.0N 75.8W 22.5N 77.7W 23.2N 79.8W 24.2N 81.3W
BAMM 22.0N 75.8W 22.6N 77.8W 23.3N 80.0W 24.2N 81.5W
LBAR 22.0N 75.8W 22.4N 76.6W 23.4N 77.8W 24.4N 78.9W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 33KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091025 1800 091026 1800 091027 1800 091028 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.3N 82.4W 27.2N 84.8W 30.7N 84.9W 35.6N 85.0W
BAMD 25.5N 82.5W 31.0N 82.9W 39.2N 68.0W 37.6N 25.9W
BAMM 25.3N 82.8W 28.6N 84.7W 35.1N 77.2W 36.3N 43.5W
LBAR 25.6N 79.7W 27.7N 78.9W 28.2N 75.9W 24.9N 76.7W
SHIP 44KTS 44KTS 31KTS 23KTS
DSHP 44KTS 44KTS 29KTS 24KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.0N LONCUR = 75.8W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 22.0N LONM12 = 75.5W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 0KT
LATM24 = 22.0N LONM24 = 75.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[cycloneye]

More confusion now also SSD dvorak gets into the fray of weird things.

23/1745 UTC 13.6N 82.3W T1.0/1.0 95L -- Atlantic

[wxman57]

That Dvorak rating is for 94L, cycloneye, though it looks quite high for that mess near Nicaragua. As for 95L, there's clearly no 25kt vortex there, as initialized by the models.

[fci]

Seems to me that, as I joked about on 93L (the short lived invest from earlier this week); that maybe there is some quota of Invests to be met!!

Seriously (although I may be more serious about quotas than originally thought); a tropical system approching this time of year from the East seems highly irregular.

Count me as a skeptic as to whether this will a) develop and b) come to South Florida if it does.
Now, if this were 4-8 weeks ago, it would be a totally different story......

[WindRunner]

Irregular? Perhaps, but certainly still possible if it times itself appropriately between mid-latitude troughs. And seeing how this is going to be swept away by one of those troughs in the very near future, I would tend to count that as typical (though perhaps not common), even at the end of October.

And no, this will not develop beyond an intermittent blob of thunderstorms, and I will almost guarantee that recon will be cancelled late tonight or first thing tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED BETWEEN THE NORTHERN COAST OF
EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
WHILE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
REMAINS MINIMAL...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE
SYSTEM IS ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

Thats all folks!

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AND IS PRODUCING
MINIMAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AND
BECOMES ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE... LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BERG

[wxman57]

Bones is getting tired of invests like this:

[boca]

95L was never alive to be declared dead.This area should of never been an invest. The NHC must be bored.