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jinftl
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Wetter & Cooler this winter

#5241 Postby jinftl » Mon Oct 26, 2009 7:34 pm

Hot weather to persist through at least early next per NWS Miami Discussion....record high minimum temps possible almost any morning for the period.

THE ATLANTIC MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD AND ACROSS THE PENINSULA BEGINNING LATE
WEDNESDAY...AS ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND THIS WILL MAINTAIN SEASONABLY DRY BUT
WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW A
BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AT ALL SITES...WITH
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 78-82 DEGREE RANGE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST EACH MORNING.

WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME...WITH
GLOBAL MODELS IN UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT THAT THE WEATHER ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE DOMINATED BY A BROAD MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVERHEAD FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
ONLY VERY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE IN ORDER...AND THIS IS
ALREADY NOTED IN THE FORECAST WITH 10 POPS. EASTERLY FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM/MUGGY NIGHTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...AND HOTTEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ALONG THE GULF COAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

It is also getting pretty dry down here...Miami rainfall is running 2.78" below normal for the month and about 6" below normal for the year. Naples is running 19" below normal since January 1 and Fort Lauderdale (airport) is running 22.46"....almost 2 feet...below normal in rainfall since January 1!

A wetter than normal el nino winter would not be unwelcome down here. Current KBDI indices are quite high for the time of year...

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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Wetter & Cooler this winter

#5242 Postby tropicana » Mon Oct 26, 2009 9:00 pm

Hot spots today in Florida, Mon Oct 26/09..

Naples 91F (record)
Vero Beach 90F
Pembroke Pines 90F
Punta Gorda 90F

Cool spots:-
Perry 48F
Crestview 50F
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#5243 Postby artist » Tue Oct 27, 2009 2:16 pm

I am so ready for that "cooler winter" that they keep predicting. Hope it gets here soon!
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#5244 Postby jinftl » Tue Oct 27, 2009 6:45 pm

I have lived in south florida since 1995, and i can say that without question, this is the hottest october i have experienced....by a long stretch.

October 2009 (thru today)
# high temps in Miami 90+ deg: 14
# low temps in Miami 80+ deg: 8 (and counting....forecast is to add 2 or 3 more to this)


By comparison in Miami:

October 2008
# high temps 90+ deg: 1
# low temps 80+ deg: 0

October 2007
# high temps 90+ degdeg: 2
# low temps 80+ deg: 2

October 2006
# high temps 90+ deg: 6
# low temps 80+ deg: 0

October 2005
# high temps 90+ deg: 4
# low temps 80+ deg: 2

October 2004
# high temps 90+ deg: 0
# low temps 80+ deg: 0

artist wrote:I am so ready for that "cooler winter" that they keep predicting. Hope it gets here soon!
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Wetter & Cooler this winter

#5245 Postby tropicana » Tue Oct 27, 2009 11:00 pm

the warmth continues:-

Hot spots Tue Oct 27/09..

Punta Gorda 91F
Okeechobee 91F
Ft Myers Regional Airport 90F
Pembroke Pines 90F

Cool spots:-

Crestview 60F (where a lot of rain fell today)


Record High minimums were set at West Palm Beach (80F) and at Miami ( 80F) for Oct 27.
ALso, at Vero Beach 77F (tied 1996) , Tampa 74F (tied 1984) and Orlando 73F

For Miami...the 80F was the 3rd warmest so late in the season.
Warmest nights so late in season:
Oct 30, 1993 80F
Oct 28, 1980 80F
Oct 27, 2009 80F

For West Palm Beach, the 80F was also the 3rd warmest so late in season.
Warmest nights so late in season:
Nov 2 1919 82F
Nov 3, 1919 80F
Oct 27, 2009 80F
Last edited by tropicana on Wed Oct 28, 2009 10:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Wetter & Cooler this winter

#5246 Postby tropicana » Wed Oct 28, 2009 10:58 pm

Hot spots across Florida Wed Oct 28, 2009:-

Ft Myers Regional Airport 92F
Daytona Beach 91F (RECORD)
Punta Gorda 91F
Pemborke Pines 91F
West Kendall 91F
Ft Pierce 90F
WInter Haven 90F
Vero Beach 90F
Ft Lauderdale 90F
Opa Locka 90F

Cool spot:
Crestview 60F
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Wetter & Cooler this winter

#5247 Postby boca » Thu Oct 29, 2009 10:45 am

So far its been warmer and drier here in Southern Florida. We are getting back into the drought and its just the start of dry season. Naples and Ft Lauderdale are 22" and 19" down for the year since Jan 1st.If this El Nino doesn't kick in for us, look out spring and the fire season.
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Wetter & Cooler this winter

#5248 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Fri Oct 30, 2009 6:46 am

I've been reading the Miami NWS discussion everyday this week. I've never seen so many changes in each discussion. A low will form along the southeast coast as the front stalls around the lake. Oh wait. No mention any more. Next a clipper with a stronger front will proceed the weak front. As the east coast long wave trough gets stronger. Oh wait. What clipper? Now the front washes out. And nothing. :eek:

http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc ... Lauderdale
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#5249 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 30, 2009 8:48 am

Image

"A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SATURDAY AND THEN TO SOUTH FLORIDA BY TUESDAY. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT."

Link: http://www.srh.weather.gov/mfl/gcast/#
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Wetter & Cooler this winter

#5250 Postby jinftl » Sun Nov 01, 2009 10:14 am

No surprise here...

...HOTTEST OCTOBER ON RECORD SET AT MIAMI...
...DRIEST OCTOBER ON RECORD SET AT FORT LAUDERDALE...


A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER. A COLD FRONT SWEPT ACROSS
THE AREA ON OCTOBER 17TH...BRINGING ABOUT THE OFFICIAL END OF THE RAINY
SEASON. HOWEVER...COOL WEATHER BEHIND THE FRONT ONLY LASTED A FEW DAYS...
BEFORE HOTTER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNED TO THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.

TWO SIGNIFICANT RECORDS WERE SET IN OCTOBER 2009.
MIAMI SET THE RECORD FOR THE ALL-TIME HOTTEST OCTOBER IN 2009.
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR OCTOBER 2009 AT MIAMI WAS 82.4
DEGREES. THIS WAS 3.6 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THIS BREAKS THE
RECORD FOR THE HOTTEST OCTOBER AT MIAMI. THE PREVIOUS HOTTEST
OCTOBER FOR MIAMI WAS 82.05 DEGREES IN 2002.

FORT LAUDERDALE SET THE RECORD FOR THE ALL-TIME DRIEST OCTOBER IN 2009.
RAINFALL FOR OCTOBER 2009 AT FORT LAUDERDALE WAS ONLY 0.73 INCHES.
THIS WAS 5.71 INCHES BELOW AVERAGE. THE PREVIOUS DRIEST
OCTOBER FOR FORT LAUDERDALE WAS 0.94 INCHES SET IN 1977.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/mfl/news ... ecords.pdf
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Wetter & Cooler this winter

#5251 Postby vbhoutex » Sun Nov 01, 2009 12:50 pm

Geez!! :uarrow: on the records. How is that "cold" front progressing for you guys?
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Wetter & Cooler this winter

#5252 Postby jinftl » Sun Nov 01, 2009 1:52 pm

Front will stall and then fizzle over south florida later this week...lowest 'low' temp between now and next weekend is forecast to be 74 deg in Miami.....with highs each day in the mid-to-high 80s (highest early in week).


EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY
DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY INTO LATE THIS WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE CWA...AND ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EACH DAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS FOR THE CWA FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THIS WEEK.

In other words, more of this.....and with the ocean temp still at 83 deg....even locals wouldn't mind taking a dip....not too tough to take

Image



vbhoutex wrote:Geez!! :uarrow: on the records. How is that "cold" front progressing for you guys?
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#5253 Postby JonathanBelles » Sun Nov 01, 2009 5:46 pm

October came in with a storm, and November came in with a cool down. I was just outside, and I couldnt help but marvel at the clear skies, huge moon on the horizon, cool crisp wind, and low light (compared to yesterday at this time).
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Re:

#5254 Postby jinftl » Sun Nov 01, 2009 5:51 pm

Can you send any of that down my way.....the sun is going down and we are still talking heat indices in the mid to upper 80s (heat index map below). The relief stops at Tampa Bay and isn't going to make much progress south.....so close....lol

5pm conditions - temps (dewpt):
Pensacola - 68 (44)
Tallahassee - 70 (41)
Jacksonville - 73 (47)
Tampa - 77 (66)
Orlando - 82 (69)
Fort Myers - 84 (71)
West Palm Beach - 82 (70)
Fort Lauderdale - 83 (70)

Image

fact789 wrote:October came in with a storm, and November came in with a cool down. I was just outside, and I couldnt help but marvel at the clear skies, huge moon on the horizon, cool crisp wind, and low light (compared to yesterday at this time).
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#5255 Postby JonathanBelles » Sun Nov 01, 2009 6:32 pm

Wow at those DP's in the Panhandle!! One more push of air mass and conditions would be very different in the peninsula.
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Re:

#5256 Postby jinftl » Sun Nov 01, 2009 6:40 pm

Yep, Autumn is so close.....as of right now, there is nothing to push genuine cold fronts through with a clean sweep down my part of the peninsula...excerpt from latest NWS Miami Discussion:

DISCUSSION...DEWPOINT AND PRESSURE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR THE TAMPA BAY AREA TO NEAR OR
JUST NORTH OF THE CAPE. A NON-DISTINCT PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH LIES AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT NEAR S FL...AND THIS HAS TURNED WINDS NW OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL FL OUTSIDE OF THE SEA BREEZES. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY...THEN WILL FINALLY GET A PUSH SOUTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATE
TUE AFTERNOON/NIGHT...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND BECOMING DIFFUSE
ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WED-THU.

The current forecast has low temps staying above 70 deg in Miami for the next 7-day period. By comparison, the first 10 days of November 2008 did not feature any low temps above 70 deg in Miami (lows ranged from 63 to 69 deg)!


fact789 wrote:Wow at those DP's in the Panhandle!! One more push of air mass and conditions would be very different in the peninsula.
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#5257 Postby JonathanBelles » Sun Nov 01, 2009 11:11 pm

Dew Points still dropping here. Down to 59 here.
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#5258 Postby JonathanBelles » Tue Nov 03, 2009 1:56 pm

Very cloudy right now, and cooler than expected. I'll be lucky to hit 80 degrees here today.
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Re: Florida Weather Thread: Wetter & Cooler this winter

#5259 Postby tropicana » Tue Nov 03, 2009 5:53 pm

The highest temperature I saw in Florida today... 91F at West Kendall,

you are right jonathan, it reached just 77F at Tampa (norm 80F),
St Pete hit 75F, but Sarasota reached 83F (norm 82F)

Miami hit 89F (surpassing a 20 year old record of 88F) which was set in 1989

November and December Days at Miami at 89F or better

Nov 1 1958 89F
Nov 2 1997 89F
Nov 3 2009 89F
Nov 4 1988 and 1995 89F
Nov 5 1941 90F
Nov 6 2002 91F
Nov 9 1989 89F
Nov 11 2002 89F
Nov 16 1989 89F
Nov 19 1986 89F

So today was only 1 of 11 November days to reach at least 89F at Miami Airport. Dating back to the late 1800s.
So pretty rare territory indeed.

Dec 3 1902 89F
Dec 13 1900 89F

-justin-
Last edited by tropicana on Wed Nov 04, 2009 6:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#5260 Postby JonathanBelles » Tue Nov 03, 2009 6:01 pm

It was 78 at my house when I made that post earlier, and it did not climb any higher. It actually went down when clouds moved in after the post.
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