WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRINAE (23W)

[breeze]

Great interview Jim.

Where can I see this interview? Link?

He was just live on the Weather Channel.

[metenthusiast]

ozonepete or hurakan, how much difference does 20 or 30 miles make in a storm like this? We have friends in Laguna and Cavite (south of Manila) but we live in Quezon City (northeast of Manila). Would it be safer down south?

20 or 30 miles is usually insignificant if you both are in the same sector of the storm. That's a really small distance in terms of the coverage of a tropical cyclone. More important considerations are it is bad if the area is near the ocean, if the area floods easily and if it faces east. I would rather be facing west with a mountain behind me when this comes in. Otherwise, it won't make much difference.

Also, remember once again that the average track error is 300 miles at 3 days out, so at this point all we know is that it could pass completely north of Luzon or go into the southern Philippines. Way too early.

My thoughts exactly. I've decided to wait until Wednesday or Thursday, when it could have a more solid or stable forecast, before making any moves for re-scheduling my dialysis treatment that's set on Saturday afternoon. Just hope I made a right decision.

[drdavisjr]

ozonepete or hurakan, how much difference does 20 or 30 miles make in a storm like this? We have friends in Laguna and Cavite (south of Manila) but we live in Quezon City (northeast of Manila). Would it be safer down south?

20 or 30 miles is usually insignificant if you both are in the same sector of the storm. That's a really small distance in terms of the coverage of a tropical cyclone. More important considerations are it is bad if the area is near the ocean, if the area floods easily and if it faces east. I would rather be facing west with a mountain behind me when this comes in. Otherwise, it won't make much difference.

Also, remember once again that the average track error is 300 miles at 3 days out, so at this point all we know is that it could pass completely north of Luzon or go into the southern Philippines. Way too early.

Thanks! We're facing a mountain here, so I think we'll stay put.

[breeze]

WPAC SST is like bath water out there...

[JTE50]

[="quote="drdavisjr"]

You feeling better Jim? Over that sickness yet?

I sleep for 5 hours and now I'm fine. I'm ready to go back to the Philippines!

Thanks for recording ! They tell me it's set for 10:10pm eastern

LOL! Crazy storms! Back and forth...[/quote]

Got it, Jim. You looked very professional and very serious. Good for you![/quote]

Thanks everyone! At the end the control room told me I was "clear" meaning my audio was no longer live, then Nicole came back with the "when are you going back to the Philippines" question. I held off my answer thinking my mic was cut but realized the mistake and answered her when she asked me again. Welcome to live phoners!

[ozonepete]

[="quote="drdavisjr"]

You feeling better Jim? Over that sickness yet?

I sleep for 5 hours and now I'm fine. I'm ready to go back to the Philippines!

Thanks for recording ! They tell me it's set for 10:10pm eastern

LOL! Crazy storms! Back and forth...

Got it, Jim. You looked very professional and very serious. Good for you![/quote]

Thanks everyone! At the end the control room told me I was "clear" meaning my audio was no longer live, then Nicole came back with the "when are you going back to the Philippines" question. I held off my answer thinking my mic was cut but realized the mistake and answered her when she asked me again. Welcome to live phoners![/quote]

LOL I could see that happening. You handled it great.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

As ozonepete has said earlier,Wednesday will be the day to know much more on a definite track as we can see all the players that will guide this system.

[ozonepete]

Ominous, Hurakan.

[ozonepete]

ozonepete or hurakan, how much difference does 20 or 30 miles make in a storm like this? We have friends in Laguna and Cavite (south of Manila) but we live in Quezon City (northeast of Manila). Would it be safer down south?

20 or 30 miles is usually insignificant if you both are in the same sector of the storm. That's a really small distance in terms of the coverage of a tropical cyclone. More important considerations are it is bad if the area is near the ocean, if the area floods easily and if it faces east. I would rather be facing west with a mountain behind me when this comes in. Otherwise, it won't make much difference.

Also, remember once again that the average track error is 300 miles at 3 days out, so at this point all we know is that it could pass completely north of Luzon or go into the southern Philippines. Way too early.

Thanks! We're facing a mountain here, so I think we'll stay put.

Ok, not so fast. Your local geography can play a huge role in whether you get the worst winds or not. Mountains and valleys (and all local topography) play havoc with the wind, and it is very complicated stuff. We'll talk about it down the road when we know where this will make landfall.

[metenthusiast]

I'm wondering when they'll going to name it?

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[ozonepete]

Latest

Looks like the eye is beginning to form.

[oaba09]

Where exactly is the center of the storm?

[ozonepete]

:uarrow: Where exactly is the center of the storm?

Look at the radar that Hurakan just posted. The center of circulation, or the developing eye, is becoming apparent northwest of Rota. It is not very well-defined - there are rain echoes on the left side of this "circle", but you have to look at it objectively and look for where the main circle of the clear area is, around which most of the rain is rotating. It takes a lot of practice, but what better time than now? Sorry, I'd love to draw it for you, but I need to go to bed now. It was another long day. And I bet you'll see it anyway - you're picking this up pretty well and pretty quickly.

[ozonepete]

P.S. There's very little rain showing up on the east side of the center of the storm at this time. That's another lesson for another time.

[oaba09]

:uarrow: Where exactly is the center of the storm?

Look at the radar that Hurakan just posted. The center of circulation, or the developing eye, is becoming apparent northwest of Rota. It is not very well-defined - there are rain echoes on the left side of this "circle", but you have to look at it objectively and look for where the main circle of the clear area is, around which most of the rain is rotating. It takes a lot of practice, but what better time than now? Sorry, I'd love to draw it for you, but I need to go to bed now. It was another long day. And I bet you'll see it anyway - you're picking this up pretty well and pretty quickly.

thanks!

[StormingB81]

DO we have to wait on JMA to change it to Tropical Storm?

[dexterlabio]

JMA is about to upgrade 23W into a tropical storm in some hours. It will be named Mirinae.

<Analyses at 27/03 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N14°25'(14.4°)
E144°35'(144.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)
<Forecast for 28/03 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°50'(15.8°)
E138°25'(138.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

It seems that the forecast track is beginning to move a little to the north. Still, its projected path is very near to the metropolis.

Here's latest satfix from JTWC:

TPPN10 PGTW 270306

A. TROPICAL STORM 23W (NW OF GUAM)

B. 27/0230Z

C. 14.6N

D. 144.6E

E. SIX/MTSAT

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
26/2334Z 14.2N 145.3E AMSU


SMITH

[Ptarmigan]

TS23 is forecasted to be a Category 4 typhoon and makes landfall on the Philippines.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad