WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRINAE (23W)

[oaba09]

This is ecmwf +72 hr forecast

If I'm seeing it correctly, that's a southern luzon landfall.......interesting........It will be interesting as to how the forecasts will look tomorrow...

True, but notice that it is category 1 typhoon, if not tropical storm. This would indicate that the ridge was strong enough to drive it southwest (obviously) and weaken it substantially.

Still, a cat 1 hit on metro manila will be devastating......

[dexterlabio]

^ that shows a landfall in northern quezon then passing in central and southern luzon, including metro manila. by the way, how did you know that it is category 1?

[Derek Ortt]

you cannot use a global model to indicate TC intensity. It lacks the resolution. Besides, there may be 85KT winds near the core in the model. Hard to see

[drdavisjr]

you cannot use a global model to indicate TC intensity. It lacks the resolution. Besides, there may be 85KT winds near the core in the model. Hard to see

Thank you Derek, I just assumed by the <20 m/s winds (yellow area)

[dexterlabio]

you cannot use a global model to indicate TC intensity. It lacks the resolution. Besides, there may be 85KT winds near the core in the model. Hard to see

Thank you Derek, I just assumed by the <20 m/s winds (yellow area)

oh. you can see the dark green color at the center of the system in the model. i dunno but it could be 40m/s or more.

[oaba09]

[Weather_boi]

This is ecmwf +72 hr forecast

Seems like a path towards Pollilio Island-Northern Quezon-Rizal-Metro Manila-Bataan.. ECMWF's pressure intensity forecast is compact and conservative (not a strong typhoon i.e. Category 4 or 5)..

[drdavisjr]

you cannot use a global model to indicate TC intensity. It lacks the resolution. Besides, there may be 85KT winds near the core in the model. Hard to see

Thank you Derek, I just assumed by the <20 m/s winds (yellow area)

oh. you can see the dark green color at the center of the system in the model. i dunno but it could be 40m/s or more.

Thanks dexterlabio, I missed that.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[Weather_boi]

Latest

Past track of Mirinae

[ozonepete]

you can see the dark green color at the center of the system in the model. i dunno but it could be 40m/s or more.

Thanks dexterlabio, I missed that.[/quote]

Hey guys, you're missing what Derek said and it's really important. You can't really use that ECMWF for strength at all. You have to look at the intensity forecasting models for tropical cyclones such as STIPS. Those are the models that are used by the forecasters at JMA and JTWC or pro mets like Derek. They will then tweak the forecasted strength output as they think necessary.

On here you can basically trust the agencies' strength forecast unless you see a pro disagreeing. (And you can always have your own reasons to disagree which we're always glad to discuss.)

[oaba09]

Report regarding the incoming typhoon

http://www.gmanews.tv/story/175807/sant ... fy-further

[Weather_boi]

1st advisory from PAGASA:

Severe Weather Bulletin Number ONE
Tropical Cyclone Alert: Typhoon "SANTI" (MIRINAE)
Issued at 10:45 p.m., Wednesday, 28 October 2009 The Typhoon East of Central Luzon has entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility and was named "SANTI".
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.) 1,210 km East of Casiguran, Aurora
Coordinates: 16.3°N, 135.0°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 140 kph near the center
and gustiness of up to 170 kph
Movement: West at 24 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook: Thursday evening:
710 km East of Casiguran, Aurora
Friday evening:
250 km East of Casiguran, Aurora
Saturday evening:
50 km East of Dagupan City or
30 km South of Baguio City


No Public Storm Warning Signals Raised


This disturbance will not affect any part of the country within the next 24 hours.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 a.m. tomorrow.

[Weather_boi]

Seems PAGASA is in agreement with JTWC and JMA's forecast track..

[Weather_boi]

Seems PAGASA is in agreement with JTWC and JMA's forecast track..

Possible track is Aurora-Quirino-Nueva Ecija-Benguet-La Union-Pangasinan ...

[oaba09]

1st advisory from PAGASA:

Severe Weather Bulletin Number ONE
Tropical Cyclone Alert: Typhoon "SANTI" (MIRINAE)
Issued at 10:45 p.m., Wednesday, 28 October 2009 The Typhoon East of Central Luzon has entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility and was named "SANTI".
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.) 1,210 km East of Casiguran, Aurora
Coordinates: 16.3°N, 135.0°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 140 kph near the center
and gustiness of up to 170 kph
Movement: West at 24 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook: Thursday evening:
710 km East of Casiguran, Aurora
Friday evening:
250 km East of Casiguran, Aurora
Saturday evening:
50 km East of Dagupan City or
30 km South of Baguio City


No Public Storm Warning Signals Raised


This disturbance will not affect any part of the country within the next 24 hours.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 a.m. tomorrow.

They're still not showing their forecasted path of "santi"/mirinae

[Weather_boi]

1st advisory from PAGASA:

Severe Weather Bulletin Number ONE
Tropical Cyclone Alert: Typhoon "SANTI" (MIRINAE)
Issued at 10:45 p.m., Wednesday, 28 October 2009 The Typhoon East of Central Luzon has entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility and was named "SANTI".
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.) 1,210 km East of Casiguran, Aurora
Coordinates: 16.3°N, 135.0°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 140 kph near the center
and gustiness of up to 170 kph
Movement: West at 24 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook: Thursday evening:
710 km East of Casiguran, Aurora
Friday evening:
250 km East of Casiguran, Aurora
Saturday evening:
50 km East of Dagupan City or
30 km South of Baguio City


No Public Storm Warning Signals Raised


This disturbance will not affect any part of the country within the next 24 hours.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 a.m. tomorrow.

They're still not showing their forecasted path of "santi"/mirinae

Try this http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/

[drdavisjr]

I found an interesting ensemble. Maybe one of the veteran members can help us disect this??

[oaba09]

sleeping time.....good night guys!

hoping for a clearer forecast tomorrow.....

[drdavisjr]

Good night, oaba09...