WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRINAE (23W)
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your sentence makes much more sense, avocado. If that is JTs reasoning, then I can buy it
However, one thing I have found is that it takes less shear to disrupt an intense TC than a weak one. 15KT of shear is favorable for a TS to intensify, but usually triggers weakening of a cat 3-5 hurricane (only calculated the statistics for Atlantic though)
However, one thing I have found is that it takes less shear to disrupt an intense TC than a weak one. 15KT of shear is favorable for a TS to intensify, but usually triggers weakening of a cat 3-5 hurricane (only calculated the statistics for Atlantic though)
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- cycloneye
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MIRINAE (23W) PAGASA=TYPHOON SANTI
1800z JTWC Warning=85kts

WTPN32 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 16.3N 133.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 133.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 16.2N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 16.1N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 16.0N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 16.1N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 16.4N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 15.7N 111.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 14.1N 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 132.9E.
TYPHOON (TY) 23W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM NORTH OF
PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS EVIDENCE OF EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR THAT HAS CAUSED MIRINAE TO LOSE ITS EYE-LIKE FEATURE OVER
THE LAST 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM STILL HAS GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AS WELL AS ACCESS TO
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT)
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 15 TO 20 DEGREES EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE
OUTFLOW HAS ENABLED MIRINAE TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AND SHOULD HELP
THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY BY ANOTHER 10 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT DAY. OVER
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS MIRINAE IS STILL EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED, WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE, ON METSAT IMAGERY AND THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW (77 KNOTS),
RJTD (90 KNOTS) AND KNES (90 KNOTS). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 281800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z
AND 292100Z.//
NNNN

WTPN32 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 16.3N 133.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 133.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 16.2N 130.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 16.1N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 16.0N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 16.1N 122.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 16.4N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 15.7N 111.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 14.1N 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 132.9E.
TYPHOON (TY) 23W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM NORTH OF
PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS EVIDENCE OF EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR THAT HAS CAUSED MIRINAE TO LOSE ITS EYE-LIKE FEATURE OVER
THE LAST 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM STILL HAS GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AS WELL AS ACCESS TO
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT)
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 15 TO 20 DEGREES EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE
OUTFLOW HAS ENABLED MIRINAE TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AND SHOULD HELP
THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY BY ANOTHER 10 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT DAY. OVER
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS MIRINAE IS STILL EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED, WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE, ON METSAT IMAGERY AND THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW (77 KNOTS),
RJTD (90 KNOTS) AND KNES (90 KNOTS). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 281800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z
AND 292100Z.//
NNNN
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- cycloneye
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Re:
ricmood wrote:Any chance of it moving a bit northeast?
So far the consensus from all the agencies and models is for the typhoon to continue westward as the subtropical ridge remains strong to its north.
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MIRINAE (23W) PAGASA=TYPHOON SANTI
I see on JTWC's #12 advisory they have the winds peaking at 95 knots on the graph but in the prognostic reasoning say: "A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 105 KNOTS IS STILL EXPECTED PRIOR TO MIRINAE MAKING LANDFALL WITH LUZON BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN EXCEPTIONAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST TRACK. "
Why not put the 105 knots on the graph if that is what they expect?
Why not put the 105 knots on the graph if that is what they expect?
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MIRINAE (23W) PAGASA=TYPHOON SANTI

Typhoon "SANTI" has intensified further as it continues to move towards Central Luzon.
Location of Center:
(as of 4:00 a.m.) 1,080 km East of Casiguran, Aurora
Coordinates: 16.2°N, 133.5°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 150 kph near the center
and gustiness of up to 185 kph
Movement: West at 26 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook: Friday morning:
580 km East of Casiguran, Aurora
Saturday morning:
100 km East of Casiguran, Aurora
Sunday morning:
180 km West of Dagupan City
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MIRINAE (23W) PAGASA=TYPHOON SANTI
oaba09 wrote:
Typhoon "SANTI" has intensified further as it continues to move towards Central Luzon.
Location of Center:
(as of 4:00 a.m.) 1,080 km East of Casiguran, Aurora
Coordinates: 16.2°N, 133.5°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 150 kph near the center
and gustiness of up to 185 kph
Movement: West at 26 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook: Friday morning:
580 km East of Casiguran, Aurora
Saturday morning:
100 km East of Casiguran, Aurora
Sunday morning:
180 km West of Dagupan City
The latest from Guam NWSO. The forward speed is much slower than PAGASA

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- cycloneye
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MIRINAE (23W) PAGASA=TYPHOON SANTI
JTE50 wrote:I see on JTWC's #12 advisory they have the winds peaking at 95 knots on the graph but in the prognostic reasoning say: "A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 105 KNOTS IS STILL EXPECTED PRIOR TO MIRINAE MAKING LANDFALL WITH LUZON BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN EXCEPTIONAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST TRACK. "
Why not put the 105 knots on the graph if that is what they expect?
That prognostic reasoning was from the 1200z warning.The next one will be at the 0000z warning as they do those every 12 hours.
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Re: WPAC : TYPHOON MIRINAE (23W) PAGASA=TYPHOON SANTI
Here is the latest news from the Philipphines related to Typhoon Santi.
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/breakingne ... ppine-seas
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/breakingne ... ppine-seas
MANILA, Philippines – The tropical cyclone east of Central Luzon has intensified into a typhoon and has entered Philippine seas, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Wednesday.
In its latest weather bulletin, PAGASA said that the typhoon, tagged "Santi" (international name: Mirinae), was seen 1,210 kilometers east of Casiguran, Aurora.
Santi, which packs maximum sustained winds of up to 140 kilometers per hour near the center and gusts of up to 170 kph, is forecast to move westward at 24 kph, PAGASA said.
No storm warning signals have been raised as the typhoon is not expected to affect any part of the country in the next 24 hours, the state-run weather bureau said.
By Thursday evening, Santi is forecast to be 710 km east of Casiguran, PAGASA said.
By Friday evening, it is expected to be at 250 km east of Casiguran.
Santi is forecast to be 50 km east of Dagupan City or 30 km south of Baguio City by Saturday evening, PAGASA said.
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Re: Re:
theavocado wrote:Derek Ortt wrote:JTs reasoning makes no sense
warm SST does not offset vertical shear. Can have SSTs of 90C, but if you have high shear, nothing is going to form
RADIAL OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM, IN ADDITION TO SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 DEGREES CELSIUS, WILL HELP OFFSET INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
I think you took it out of context. The mesoscale anti-cyclone would be set up over the system, and would continue to be there as long as the upward vertical motion associated with the rapid release of latent heat was present. It is the mesoscale anticyclone that offsets the vertical windshear in the region, and the high SSTs keep the latent heat release high enough to support the anti-cyclone. Once an anti-cyclone sets up over the system, vertical wind shear is almost nil.
Strong systems alter their own environment, and VWS below the values associated with the deformation zone and/or subtropical jet are generally not enough to overcome the cocoon the system has set up.
I will admit that the sentence is very poorly written, and the subordinate clause doesn't help. I think they were trying too hard to be creative on the writing without just being blunt.
Hi Avocado,
Well I agreed with Derek to disagree with JTWC, so I had to comment on this. BTW, I always keep saying that I really like JTWC's analyses overall, and they are completely on a par with JMA in my opinion and have done some amazing analyses, catching factors that everyone else misses. But in this case...
In this case there is shear as high as 20-30 knots forecast ahead of this system. I agree that "VWS below the values associated with the deformation zone and/or subtropical jet are generally not enough to overcome the cocoon the system has set up." But 20-30 knots is more than enough (Derek said 15 knots, and I agree) to severly disrupt this cyclone and make the outflow mechanism irrelevant. So i think they should have said that decent upper level outflow and low to moderate wind shear is allowing the cyclone to maintain its current intensity, but if VWS exceeds 15-20 knots then this system may weaken even further despite the good upper level anticyclonic outflow.
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Re:
drdavisjr wrote:Hello everyone. It looks like JTWC expects a very powerful storm and have moved the track down closer to JMA's. Not looking good for all the dams in central Luzon.
Yup.............I'm still expecting a WSW movement soon.....
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- cycloneye
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Re:
drdavisjr wrote:Hello everyone. It looks like JTWC expects a very powerful storm and have moved the track down closer to JMA's. Not looking good for all the dams in central Luzon.
Dams? How many are in that area?

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Re: Re:
cycloneye wrote:drdavisjr wrote:Hello everyone. It looks like JTWC expects a very powerful storm and have moved the track down closer to JMA's. Not looking good for all the dams in central Luzon.
Dams? How many are in that area?
Major dams in the area

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