WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRINAE (23W)

[oaba09]

2009OCT28 213000 16.02 -132.77
2009OCT28 215700 16.02 -132.66
2009OCT28 223000 16.01 -132.52
2009OCT28 225700 16.01 -132.31
2009OCT28 231300 16.01 -132.24
2009OCT28 233000 15.80 -132.17

Cetainly moving lower.

very troublesome numbers

[dhoeze]

There are about 5 Major Dams along the path of Miranae.

Binga Dam&Ambuklao in Mountain Province
Magat in Isabela
Pantabangan in Nueva Ecija
Angat Dam in Bulacan

For typhoon Lupit, administrators for the dam released waters before the typhoon
hits as learnings from the Typhoon Parma.

But in preparation for Typhoon Miranae, no such reports.
Hopefully they will start releasing small quantities of water
already just to make sure.

[oaba09]

<Analyses at 29/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N15°55'(15.9°)
E132°10'(132.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(17kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N370km(200NM)
S220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 30/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°40'(15.7°)
E127°10'(127.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area Wide 300km(160NM)
<Forecast for 31/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°30'(15.5°)
E122°05'(122.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area Wide 410km(220NM)
<Forecast for 01/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°35'(15.6°)
E116°35'(116.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area Wide 540km(290NM)

[StormingB81]

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/R ... pwsair.jpg

If you look at that. MIRINAE is connected with the remains of Lupit. Is that odd? I know it happend like a months ago with Parma and the other one but I mean these are further away. Does that mean anything?

[drdavisjr]

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/ab/abpwsair.jpg

If you look at that. MIRINAE is connected with the remains of Lupit. Is that odd? I know it happend like a months ago with Parma and the other one but I mean these are further away. Does that mean anything?

I think, if I am not mistaken, Fujiwara effect occurs between 2 storms of at least tropical storm intensity within about 1,000 kms of each other.

[StormingB81]

Thats what I think it is thats why I said its odd that they are connected so far away

[oaba09]

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/ab/abpwsair.jpg

If you look at that. MIRINAE is connected with the remains of Lupit. Is that odd? I know it happend like a months ago with Parma and the other one but I mean these are further away. Does that mean anything?

I think, if I am not mistaken, Fujiwara effect occurs between 2 storms of at least tropical storm intensity within about 1,000 kms of each other.

Yeah, I think they're too far for any interaction to happen........

MIRINAE is way below JTWC's track right now....

[drdavisjr]

MIRINAE is way below JTWC's track right now....

True, looking at the Philippines map, the area just below Polillo Islands would be a horrible spot for landfall. This would be, in my opinion, worst-case scenario as there aren't any mountains between the east coast and Metro Manila. Plus, this would put us on the right side of the storm, from what I've learned here is the strongest side.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

Jim,haved you arrived at Luzon?

[ozonepete]

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/ab/abpwsair.jpg

If you look at that. MIRINAE is connected with the remains of Lupit. Is that odd? I know it happend like a months ago with Parma and the other one but I mean these are further away. Does that mean anything?

I think, if I am not mistaken, Fujiwara effect occurs between 2 storms of at least tropical storm intensity within about 1,000 kms of each other.

Yeah, I think they're too far for any interaction to happen........

MIRINAE is way below JTWC's track right now....

Aha! My friends, you don't forget much! Good for you. I'll fill you in on the missing details. Often you will see that line between two tropical cyclones because it is a physical manifestation of the line between the southern warm maritime air and the northern cooler continental polar air (a front). When a tropical cyclone like LUPIT starts to recurve it moves up along this borderline and then gets caught by the mid-latitude westerly winds that carry it eastward. So you will see the remaining circulation of LUPIT exiting out eastward into the polar regions along that line while the new storm (Mirinae) is entering and pushing up against the same dividing line but at the southern, tropical end. The departing northern storm drags the line eastward while the entering southern storm pushes the line westward.

As far as Fujiwhara, that's very different. The centers of the two storms have to be within 900 nautical miles or about 1600 kilometers of each other. They will then rotate about each other in a counterclockwise manner. And it is very dependent on how strong each cyclone is as well. Look in the thread on MELOR if you want to see what we posted there when MELOR did the Fujiwhara with PARMA.

[JTE50]

Jim,haved you arrived at Luzon?

I leave Guam for Manila in a few hours. Hey, can someone in Manila PM me?

[oaba09]

Things are looking bad for us metro manila as mirinae comes closer

[dhoeze]

Guys,

Any forecasted amount of rainfall Miranae would bring to Manila say it continues to its current track?
Just a newbie here in the forum...

Saw a post earlier stating "it is producing strong convection and that could mean heavy rains",
Is there an image of this where I could see this as part of the typhoon?

Sorry a lot of questions, really want to learn from you guys.
Thanks.

[cycloneye]

Guys,

Any forecasted amount of rainfall Miranae would bring to Manila say it continues to its current track?
Just a newbie here in the forum...

Saw a post earlier stating "it is producing strong convection and that could mean heavy rains",
Is there an image of this where I could see this as part of the typhoon?

Sorry a lot of questions, really want to learn from you guys.
Thanks.

All the main action seems below 16N.

[metenthusiast]

As far as Fujiwhara, that's very different. The centers of the two storms have to be within 900 nautical miles or about 1600 kilometers of each other. They will then rotate about each other in a counterclockwise manner. And it is very dependent on how strong each cyclone is as well. Look in the thread on MELOR if you want to see what we posted there when MELOR did the Fujiwhara with PARMA.

So, that's Fujiwhara. All know from that occurence is that Melor pulled Parma from it NWesterly track and caused it to turn back to the Philippines. Never knew it was a phenomenon of some sorts...

[oaba09]

TPPN10 PGTW 290014

A. TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE)

B. 28/2330Z

C. 15.9N

D. 132.2E

E. FOUR/MTSAT

F. T5.0/5.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 15A/PBO TIGHTLY CURVED BAND/BANDING EYE/ANMTN. DT
YIELDS A 5.0 USING THE EMBEDDED CENTER TECHNIQUE. MET YIELDS A
5.0. PT YIELDS A 4.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
28/2034Z 16.2N 132.9E SSMI
28/2127Z 16.2N 132.6E SSMI


BRANDON

[metenthusiast]

Here is a wind field model from Tropical Storm Risk as Typhoon Mirinae nears Luzon

36-hour lead


48-hr lead

[cycloneye]

00:00Z JTWC Warning=90kts

Jim,track a little more south for you to take this one and JMA as you arrive at Manila.The 00:00z track passes 42 miles north of Manila.



WTPN32 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 16.1N 132.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N 132.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 15.7N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 15.5N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 15.3N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 15.3N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 15.5N 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 14.6N 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 13.1N 104.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 131.5E.
TYPHOON (TY) 23W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z.//
NNNN

[oaba09]

00:00Z JTWC Warning=90kts

Jim,track a little more south for you to take this one and JMA as you arrive at Manila.The 00:00z track passes 42 miles noth of Manila.



WTPN32 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 16.1N 132.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N 132.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 15.7N 129.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 15.5N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 15.3N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 15.3N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 15.5N 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 14.6N 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 13.1N 104.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
290300Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 131.5E.
TYPHOON (TY) 23W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 30 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 290900Z, 291500Z, 292100Z AND 300300Z.//
NNNN

That looks bad