ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[Macrocane]

The Euro worked pretty well the entire season until mid october then something happened and its perfomance has not been that good. The other models from the respectable ones to the laughable ones are in agreement bringing Ida to the gulf, I see that easily verifying, is it against climatology? yes, is it impossible? no. The intensity forecast is more uncertain that IMHO is a "wait and see" situation.

[ronjon]

Looks to me that IDA is now moving NE the last few hours - the center could be over water sooner than we think.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[ROCK]

The EURO is very good at seeing the upper air pattern well in advance. This last run brings Ida's left overs into the GOM then pushes whats left SW. Sheared mess no doubt. 6z GFS showed this as well. Her LLC might get pushed SW while her moisture gets ejected over FL with the trof.

[Macrocane]

how's your rain been?

Intermittent rain fell last night, generally ligth to moderate. At this time the sky is very dark but only a drizzle was falling several minutes ago. Tonight and tomorrow is expected to be the rainiest periods, later today the meteorological agency will issue a new forecast and I will keep you updated

[Ivanhater]

Not one model brings it to the Florida Peninsula. All the models bring it to the northern gulfcoast or nearing. Then high pressure brings it back south. Everyone needs to watch.

[Evil Jeremy]

Not one model brings it to the Florida Peninsula. All the models bring it to the northern gulfcoast or nearing. Then high pressure brings it back south. Everyone needs to watch.

A good chunk of the models bend it towards Florida in 5 days, and after that general time frame, I don't put to much trust in the models. If they are bending towards FL in 5 days, I will watch regardless of what the models show after that point, because after 5 days, I just look at models for entertainment. Yes, the models can sense trends far out in advance, but I don't put to much trust into them that far out.

[marciacubed]

What are the chances of a Wilma track? That is my biggest fear that Ida will take the same path as Wilma. //www.tropmet.com/images/gallery%20images/hurricane%20wilma/Wilma_track.jpg

[jlauderdal]

getting very close to be off shore.
I am really stumped as to the NHC forecast cone. With the fronts coming down now, it just doesn't make sense it would get that far north. Is it just me? I would think htey would at least lean right a little more so if this survives there can be some planning going on.

they are going down the middle of the track guidance until it becomes more clear which is what is the smart thing to do. As far as planning goes, what exactly should people be planning for and who would advise should be doing this planning. Planning and preparation is extremely expensive in terms of dollars and cost.

[Ivanhater]

Not one model brings it to the Florida Peninsula. All the models bring it to the northern gulfcoast or nearing. Then high pressure brings it back south. Everyone needs to watch.

A good chunk of the models bend it towards Florida in 5 days, and after that general time frame, I don't put to much trust in the models. If they are bending towards FL in 5 days, I will watch regardless of what the models show after that point, because after 5 days, I just look at models for entertainment. Yes, the models can sense trends far out in advance, but I don't put to much trust into them that far out.

Yes all of them are bending to some degree at different points in the Gulf, some near Louisiana, some further east. However, you can see this is the beginning of a loop not a continued path. Still time for things to change though. With the spread all over the gulf, everyone needs to watch Ida.

[wxman57]

What are the chances of a Wilma track? That is my biggest fear that Ida will take the same path as Wilma. //www.tropmet.com/images/gallery%20images/hurricane%20wilma/Wilma_track.jpg

It looks like the strong westerly winds across the Gulf are farther north than the were with Wilma. That should allow Ida to get farther north before it hooks right. I still think Tampa is a likely U.S. landfall point. Could even be a bit farther up the peninsula.

Ida reminds me of Isidore in 2002 after Isidore lost its core over the Yucatan. It can take 2-3 days to regenerate the core. Storms that interact with land like Ida, Isidore, Ike and Wilma also experience a significant expansion of the wind field. I expect that to happen as Ida gets its act back together. Whereas TS winds may have extended only 40-50 miles from the center (that's generous) prior to landfall, those winds may extend out to over 100 miles from the center as it enters the Gulf.

[wxman57]

This graphic may give you an idea where Ida might track once it enters the SE Gulf. I plotted the NHC's 06Z Wednesday position on the GFS projection of 200mb wind flow (wind barbs and isotachs). The GFS flow isn't much different from the Euro or Canadian. Strong WSW-W winds across the northern Gulf in Ida's path. These winds actually increase and dig south and east after 06Z Wednesday.

With that kind of flow, I'd expect Ida to turn a little earlier toward Florida than is currently predicted. And shear will be steadily increasing as Ida moves out of the Caribbean, so a hurricane hit looks unlikely. Probably a sheared TS. We've had a few of them this year.

[Evil Jeremy]

Looks to me that IDA is now moving NE the last few hours - the center could be over water sooner than we think.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

I see it to. North with a slight east component. At this rate, I think it is likely that Ida will make it back into the waters before midnight tonight, perhaps within the next 6-12 hours. It depends on how far east she goes as well.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

wxman, do you have any thoughts about the sub tropical low that some models are showing developing next week in the western gulf. Heard that it could be really strong around 970-980 or so.

[AtlanticWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rb.html


Looks to me like the circulation is already north of the border , Ida should be emerging out in the sea by about 2pm

[ronjon]

I think a big complicating factor in the forecast is the interaction with the BOC disturbance. Looks like the remains of 96E are getting pulled northward into this inverted trough/low pressure. Does Ida merge with this disturbance somewhere in the south-central GOM? The latest GFDL hints at a rather large storm system (expanded as wxman57 said) in the central or east-central GOM. The canadian model merges the two features over the north-central GOM. Not sure how it'll play out. I'm thinking the NHC is tad conservative on the redevelopment of Ida in the NW caribbean - there is a large convective field developing north of the center and once the descending winds off the mountains are replaced by inflow from the caribbean sea combined with the super high heat potential - look out. We also have both dynamical models (both HWRF and GFDL) now forecasting hurricane strength in the NW caribbean. Shear looks low for the next 24 hours off the north coast of Honduras too with the forecast of lighter upper air winds expanding northward with time in the next 3-5 days.

[Stormcenter]

You really really have to take with a grain of salt what some of the models
are saying concerning Ida.

[Weatherboy1]

My personal opinion is that the track will continue shifting to the E over time. Irene in 1999 is a prime example of how the models consistently held onto a westward bias even as the storm's path continued to come in to the east of the predicted path. I just think that climatology argues for a hook to the NE or ENE at some point, and my semi-educated guess is that the hook will happen farther south than the NHC is predicting. We'll see.

[Stormcenter]

A lot of "what if" .......remember it's Nov. and not Sept.
The GOM waters are a lot cooler now and conditions will not
be favorable for any serious development. There is a reason
we've only had 1 hurricane affect the U.S. coastline in Nov.
just my 2 cents.

I think a big complicating factor in the forecast is the interaction with the BOC disturbance. Looks like the remains of 96E are getting pulled northward into this inverted trough/low pressure. Does Ida merge with this disturbance somewhere in the south-central GOM? The latest GFDL hints at a rather large storm system (expanded as wxman57 said) in the central or east-central GOM. The canadian model merges the two features over the north-central GOM. Not sure how it'll play out. I'm thinking the NHC is tad conservative on the redevelopment of Ida in the NW caribbean - there is a large convective field developing north of the center and once the descending winds off the mountains are replaced by inflow from the caribbean sea combined with the super high heat potential - look out. We also have both dynamical models (both HWRF and GFDL) now forecasting hurricane strength in the NW caribbean. Shear looks low for the next 24 hours off the north coast of Honduras too with the forecast of lighter upper air winds expanding northward with time in the next 3-5 days.

[HurricaneBelle]

This is starting to remind me quite a bit of 1988's Tropical Storm Keith, which hit Sarasota as a 55KT TS (although it was sheared - the heavy weather was all north of the center, MacDill AFB in Tampa recorded winds as high as 63 MPH) a few days before Thanksgiving.

[HURAKAN]

Looking good even though it's inland