ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[deltadog03]

I know it will effect the entire peninsula, however I feel that NHC might be too slow on the track. The flow is still fairly *active* if you will and dosn't break down until day 5 or so. If you look at the movement today, she is already moving quicker than NHC had her in the short term. It may be a moot point, but if she does continue to move a nice speed she will make it up to the panhandle.

[JTD]

I wouldn't rule out anything intensity wise at the moment. This is the western carribbean sea that we're talking about here. I think Derek's point of all or nothing is probably quite valid as well.

[Ivanhater]

I know it will effect the entire peninsula, however I feel that NHC might be too slow on the track. The flow is still fairly *active* if you will and dosn't break down until day 5 or so. If you look at the movement today, she is already moving quicker than NHC had her in the short term. It may be a moot point, but if she does continue to move a nice speed she will make it up to the panhandle.

The Euro shows this exact scenario.

[tolakram]

Convection is blowing away, at least temporarily.

Loop:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

[attallaman]

What will cause Ida to curve sharp to the E near the end of those model runs and the NHC track once it reaches the GOM? A cold front coming down from the N? The L in the BOC? My area is under some kind of a flash flood watch until next Tuesday, crawlers and that annoying beeping noise have been going across the bottom of my TV screen on TWC all day, is that flash flood watch related to Ida down south? Is it related to the developing L in the BOC? Haven't heard much about that L in the BOC, where is it forecasted to go?

[ericinmia]

I wouldn't say the convection is blowing away as much as I would say that it is re-organizing in an environment with good venting to the N and NE.

The convection appears to be 'centering' over the LLC if that is still present in some form, strong or not.
-Eric

As many have mentioned, this is going to have a VERY large energy envelope after emerging from it's land excursion. Lets see how well it wraps up in the next 6-12 hours.

[ronjon]

Viewing the VIS SAT, the LLC now appears to be aligned with the MLC - as Ida approached the coast the LLC swung underneath the deep convection where the MLC is - should deepen gradually now as it pulls away from the coast. May be a tropical storm by 10 pm advisory.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[gatorcane]

Look how far west the 18Z NAM is

Can I say Texans where are you???

[gatorcane]

18Z NAM shifts to Western GOM.

[Bocadude85]

18Z NAM shifts to Western GOM.

I dont usually even look at the NAM.. also its the 18z run...

[srainhoutx]

Look how far west the 18Z NAM is

Can I say Texans where are you???

Trust me Gator, we're watching.

[dixiebreeze]

I'm wondering now if Ida might eventually emerge into something similar to the 1993 No Name storm that ravaged with west central Florida coast with winds and major flooding. It then moved to the northeast for an amost Perfect Storm.

[southerngale]

Look how far west the 18Z NAM is

Can I say Texans where are you???

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

Well, I'm always watching, off and on, no matter where a system is expected to go. But since you asked, I figured I'd reply to this model run...

hahahahaha

[tgenius]

So realistically should I be even worried about this at all in Miami or should I just wave and say sianara?

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS is already WAY to slow. It has Ida the same position it is now 18 hours from now

[CourierPR]

So realistically should I be even worried about this at all in Miami or should I just wave and say sianara?

I always go back to Irene in 1999. I was teaching school the day it hit the southern peninsula. I went to work assured that she would pass well to our west in the GOM. We were sent home shortly after lunch and Irene came right over us in the late afternoon and evening. Enough said?

[cycloneye]

Will it do an Irene?

[KWT]

I have to agree with Deltadog this one seems to be moving constantly faster then the models have been progging, its already where it was progged to be at 12z tomorrow according to the 00z GFDL run earlier.

Should see a NNW track sooner or later it seems. Also agree with Derek, this could either be destoryed by shear or possibly enhanced by the shear helping the outflow channels.

[Aric Dunn]

Will it do an Irene?

actually thats funny you bring that up .. the upper flow during irene is very similar to IDA as well .. with strong shear but its forward motion and good divergence allowed to become a hurricane.

[Aric Dunn]

Will it do an Irene?

actually thats funny you bring that up .. the upper flow during irene is very similar to IDA as well .. with strong shear but its forward motion and good divergence allowed to become a hurricane.