ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[NEXRAD]

Rainband,

The Euro and CMC seem to really deepen Ida (maybe Ida + the Bay of Campeche low). The GFS seems a bit more laid-back with the system and looks a bit more realistic to me. The latest HWRF and GFDL are also less aggressive than they were yesterday. I won't speculate on the model intensities as translating low resolution model pressure fields into something like a system intensity, especially what looks like a hybrid system, is rather guess work, to me (esp. at 4... 5 days out).

Per the HPC, apparently the Euro has been persistent in this Bay of Campeche low and there exists some evidence supporting this model. If the Bay of Campeche low develops, though, I'd lean towards anticipating Ida to shear-out owing to the non-tropical low's dominance. The models might be merging the two systems and showing (perhaps correctly) a hybrid scenario unfolding. Though, still, I am skeptical of some of the intensities I'm seeing.

- Jay
South Florida

Would that change though if IDA were to get her act together in the next 24hrs as none of the models in question show? It makes sense to me that if IDA were to get to lets say a cat1-2, which is well beyond what those global models see in comparison to the BOC low... would the BOC low still have an strong influence over it?
Thanks,
-Eric

If the Bay of Campeche low develops as intense as the Euro seems to show, then that low will definitely have significant impact on Ida regardless of the storm intensity. As Derek mentioned, though, the Bay of Campeche low hasn't really come together yet. The HPC seems to be leaning towards a weaker low in this region, too. Overall, my general sense with this feature, Ida, and the forth-coming weather pattern (i.e. incoming frontal boundary with shortwave aloft) is that we're looking at a future hybrid system.

- Jay
South Florida

[Aric Dunn]

yeah gfdl 100 kt hurricane in southern gulf.. hmmmm

has it at a hurricane in 72 hours while still in the carribean though .. Im not sure im buying it still being in the carribean in 72 hrs..

[Sanibel]

There's a second level in the convection starting to curve in. This is probably starting to realign its gears and should come together fast if it is going to.


The red IR pop is the shear displaced central convection.


I'm seeing east of guidance right now and NNE unless it is satellite illusion.

[Aric Dunn]

same thing with the HWRF.. .. weird.. they keep seeing the upper environment improving.. its farther east and then dives it se briefly before turning back ene .. or so last couple frames

[Blown Away]

18z GFDL does a loop in the GOM as a cat 2.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

The GFDL is not moving as far N before the loop/stall. I still think these models are sending this system to far north.

[ozonepete]

There's a second level in the convection starting to curve in. This is probably starting to realign its gears and should come together fast if it is going to.


The red IR pop is the shear displaced central convection.


I'm seeing east of guidance right now and NNE unless it is satellite illusion.

That's what I was saying just recently. I see an NNE move.

[ericinmia]

With things being as complex as they are...

Watch the solution end up being a lot more simple and direct than the models are predicting.
I am not a believer in the loops.... Ida is going to go somewhere and then get shredded to pieces as she merges with the front. (Just my opinion)
-Eric

[Aric Dunn]

GFS 96 hours shear forecast.. upper ridge slightly builds over it.. hmmm...

[Sanibel]

I'm still seeing a kaboom pretty soon in shape and behavior. Storm has gone from strength in outer bands to inner CDO in little time.

[Aric Dunn]

I cant believe the HWRF maintains a hurricane through the whole 5 days sitting just SW tampa.. lol its normally fairly conservative..

[Blown Away]

With things being as complex as they are...

Watch the solution end up being a lot more simple and direct than the models are predicting.
I am not a believer in the loops.... Ida is going to go somewhere and then get shredded to pieces as she merges with the front. (Just my opinion)
-Eric

I agree, I would not be surprised to see Ida enter the GOM slow down as the front approaches and then begin to move NE ahead of the front. The further N Ida goes in the GOM the more shear she will encounter, but if Ida begins a NE turn in the southern GOM Ida could be in a more favorable upper air environment.

[Crostorm]

[Sanibel]

That red IR to the south side in crostorm's image is the convection wrapping back in behind the south center.


This thing is telling us it is go time for take-off.

[southmdwatcher]

So, assuming that Ida tracks a bit to the east of the NHC guidance as it looks to be doing at this moment, that would keep the path of Ida over the best deep warm waters in the NW Carribean near Cuba for a longer period of time?

[Aric Dunn]

Then there is the Nogaps..

lol hurricane NW gulf ..... 84 hr 18z perfect example why the models are out the window right now.. once this gets some strength back im sure they will start to do better...



its hard to see here but nogaps has a pretty decent upper ridge over almost the whole gulf at 84 hrs..

i guess the only consensus is for some kind of a upper ridge developing somewhere in the gulf..

Green lines are the shear ..

[AdamFirst]

What I'm wondering is, what would a more easterly track do for a landfall? Would that shove it more north or south?

[Sanibel]

I'd wait before assuming it is east of track. It could still be close the NHC track. Satellites often give a wrong impression of track and the shortwave loop shows it could be close to NHC track still.

[ozonepete]

What I'm wondering is, what would a more easterly track do for a landfall? Would that shove it more north or south?

I agree with Sanibel that it's too early to tell if it really is going a little more east. But to answer your question, if it is, then it would be logical to think western Cuba and southern Florida would be more vulnerable.

[Aric Dunn]

The near by buoy ....interesting ... winds are increasing substantially nearly TS force.. quite a bit away from the center.. ( one minute average ) pressure about 1009 ... about 150 miles from the center..
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

[KWT]

Certainly doesn't look too bad at the moment, as Derek said once it gets clear of land totally then conditions at the moment really don't look too bad...though I'll give it another 12hrs before really getting a good feel on the situation.