ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[RattleMan]

Ob 22 and I've updated my decoder to discern between common suspect codes.

Code: Select all

TIME        Latit.    Long.    Plane. Prs.   Height   Pressure   Temp   Dew Pt.   Dir, 30s mean   FL    SFMR   Precip   QC
16:39:00z   18°17'N   84°04'W   844.5 hPa   1434m   991.5 hPa   24.3°C   19.7°C   258° @ 58kt     62kt   49kt   4mm   ?:SFMR
16:39:30z   18°16'N   84°04'W   842.4 hPa   1453m   992.2 hPa   22.6°C   19.8°C   257° @ 58kt     59kt   57kt   3mm   OK
16:40:00z   18°15'N   84°05'W   842.5 hPa   1458m   994.0 hPa   20.7°C   19.9°C   264° @ 56kt     57kt   58kt   2mm   ?:SFMR
16:40:30z   18°14'N   84°06'W   842.4 hPa   1469m   995.8 hPa   19.1°C   19.1°C   281° @ 57kt     59kt   60kt   2mm   OK
16:41:00z   18°13'N   84°07'W   842.9 hPa   1468m   996.2 hPa   19.9°C   19.4°C   293° @ 65kt     67kt   57kt   3mm   OK
16:41:30z   18°12'N   84°08'W   841.3 hPa   1492m   996.9 hPa   20.4°C   19°C   294° @ 60kt     64kt   51kt   2mm   OK
16:42:00z   18°11'N   84°09'W   843.5 hPa   1483m   998.4 hPa   20°C   18.5°C   293° @ 52kt     53kt   49kt   2mm   OK
16:42:30z   18°10'N   84°10'W   843.0 hPa   1494m   999.1 hPa   19.9°C   18.3°C   287° @ 41kt     44kt   45kt   1mm   OK
16:43:00z   18°09'N   84°11'W   842.7 hPa   1504m   1000.3 hPa   18.9°C   18°C   292° @ 38kt     39kt   42kt   3mm   OK
16:43:30z   18°08'N   84°12'W   843.6 hPa   1494m   1000.9 hPa   18.1°C   17.8°C   303° @ 42kt     43kt   41kt   2mm   OK
16:44:00z   18°07'N   84°14'W   842.9 hPa   1506m   1001.0 hPa   19°C   17.5°C   304° @ 39kt     43kt   38kt   1mm   OK
16:44:30z   18°06'N   84°15'W   842.4 hPa   1515m   1001.3 hPa   19.1°C   17.2°C   292° @ 35kt     36kt   34kt   3mm   OK
16:45:00z   18°05'N   84°16'W   843.1 hPa   1511m   1002.3 hPa   18.2°C   17°C   292° @ 35kt     37kt   36kt   3mm   OK
16:45:30z   18°04'N   84°17'W   843.0 hPa   1515m   1002.8 hPa   18.3°C   16.8°C   299° @ 39kt     41kt   37kt   2mm   OK
16:46:00z   18°03'N   84°18'W   843.0 hPa   1520m   1003.0 hPa   18.4°C   16.6°C   302° @ 42kt     42kt   37kt   1mm   OK
16:46:30z   18°02'N   84°19'W   842.9 hPa   1523m   1003.5 hPa   18.1°C   16.4°C   306° @ 42kt     43kt   35kt   2mm   OK
16:47:00z   18°01'N   84°21'W   843.0 hPa   1524m   1004.2 hPa   17.3°C   16.3°C   308° @ 42kt     42kt   35kt   4mm   OK
16:47:30z   18°00'N   84°22'W   842.9 hPa   1526m   1004.6 hPa   17.1°C   16.1°C   312° @ 39kt     41kt   35kt   2mm   OK
16:48:00z   17°58'N   84°23'W   842.9 hPa   1530m   1005.0 hPa   16.5°C   15.8°C   312° @ 35kt     37kt   36kt   1mm   OK
16:48:30z   17°57'N   84°24'W   842.9 hPa   1530m   1005.4 hPa   16.5°C   15.6°C   307° @ 31kt     32kt   34kt   1mm   OK

Max:   18°17'N   84°24'W   844.5 hPa   1530m   1005.4 hPa   24.3°C   19.9°C   65kt   67kt   60kt   4mm   
Min:   17°57'N   84°04'W   841.3 hPa   1434m   991.5 hPa   16.5°C   15.6°C   31kt   32kt   34kt   1mm   
Avg:   -------   --------   842.9 hPa   1497m   999.9 hPa   19.1°C   17.7°C   45kt   47kt   43kt   2mm   
        Latit.    Long.    Plane. Prs.   Height   Pressure   Temp   Dew Pt.   Mean   FL    SFMR   Precip   


[Dean4Storms]

She has another 24 hrs at least in very warm water and the southern Gulf is still 80+ so I think she could reach 100+mph winds if the current trend continues, heck that is just 30mph more than what Recon is finding and she intensified that much just this morning!!

[littlevince]

[Blown Away]

This rapid intensification we are seeing is really of no surprise. I'm not quite sure why there are some so suprised by this? SSTs are boiling and shear is weak. Also when it emerged from Honduras, it had a great structure to start with. So far is behaving as I forecasted from the beginning...a movement that skirts the Nicaraguan/Honduras coast or goes just inland into the NW Carib...then reintensification into a hurricane or more in the NW Caribbean. Should start to head NW soon and go just near the tip of the Yucatan and into the Southern GOM. Still calling for a hook ENE or E at the end. Shear will increase in the GOM and the system will look more spread out in the Northern GOM, resembling some kind of subtropical system with alot of sheared convection blowing off into the FL peninsula and EGOM. It does appear that the southern half of FL may not be the target for Ida, thankfully. Had it gone that route, it could be alot stronger at landfall with less shear around. Looks like more of a NE GOM and maybe a panhandle issue. Plenty of wind will be howling across the Eastern part of the GOM and northern GOM the next several days with tight pressure gradients.

Well said Gator, that seems the most obvious solution for this time of year. IMO, the SST's really don't support anything more than a TS in the NGOM. That being said, 40+ mph winds in a condo on the beach or in a mobile home can be scary and the water piles up quickly along the Panhandle especially in the Big Bend area.

[tolakram]

Goes selector:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

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http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=20&lon=-84&info=vis&zoom=1&width=3000&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=10

[Dean4Storms]

Yep, I believe you are right Ivan.

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071656
AF306 0211A IDA HDOB 23 20091107
164900 1756N 08426W 8428 01534 0056 +164 +154 307031 032 034 001 00
164930 1755N 08427W 8430 01532 0057 +164 +151 310028 029 034 001 00
165000 1754N 08428W 8429 01535 0058 +165 +149 316027 028 031 002 00
165030 1753N 08429W 8430 01535 0055 +175 +147 310031 031 031 001 00
165100 1752N 08431W 8430 01536 0058 +176 +146 310031 031 030 003 00
165130 1751N 08432W 8429 01541 0059 +178 +146 306028 029 030 001 00
165200 1750N 08433W 8430 01541 0060 +178 +147 306026 027 028 002 00
165230 1749N 08434W 8431 01541 0059 +181 +147 303025 026 030 001 00
165300 1748N 08436W 8426 01547 0062 +179 +148 302026 026 029 001 00
165330 1747N 08437W 8429 01546 0061 +185 +148 299027 027 030 000 00
165400 1746N 08438W 8429 01547 0061 +185 +149 302027 028 029 001 00
165430 1744N 08439W 8430 01547 0064 +180 +149 306027 027 028 000 00
165500 1743N 08440W 8429 01549 0067 +180 +150 305025 026 026 002 00
165530 1742N 08442W 8432 01546 0069 +178 +150 307025 025 027 002 00
165600 1741N 08443W 8429 01552 0069 +175 +150 310025 027 024 003 00
165630 1740N 08444W 8429 01551 0073 +175 +149 312026 027 024 002 00
165700 1739N 08445W 8431 01551 0073 +175 +148 312027 027 026 001 00
165730 1738N 08447W 8429 01553 0075 +175 +148 306026 027 025 001 00
165800 1737N 08448W 8430 01554 0075 +175 +147 301026 026 022 003 00
165830 1736N 08449W 8431 01554 0078 +171 +147 303025 026 023 002 00
$$
;

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

See all the deep red convection on the SW side of the center.?Normally that is on the east side. Shear is very light right now. That red convection should wrap around the center and fill in on the NE quad, also the CDO is expanding a sign of rapid strengthening. This thing could be CAT 2 easily, maybe CAT 3 before all is done. Depends on how long it stays over the NW Caribbean...won't be that strong in the GOM though.

[WindRunner]

Well said Gator, that seems the most obvious solution for this time of year. IMO, the SST's really don't support anything more than a TS in the NGOM. That being said, 40+ mph winds in a condo on the beach or in a mobile home can be scary and the water piles up quickly especially in the Big Bend area.

Well, important things to remember are such: 1, it likely won't get that far north, what with the frontal zone charging southward by that point. Secondly, even if it does go that far north, it will be mostly extraropical by then, at which point the roughest part of the storm will be displaced well north and west of the center, especially with such a strong high pressure system coming in from behind the front. Wouldn't be surprised to see the entire northern Gulf coast get a prolonged period 40-50kt gusts, if not sustained winds, out of this. Because by that point, warm waters won't even play a role in its strength.

[littlevince]

[Blown Away]

Maybe Ida is going to move just west of the next forecast point and if I were in Cozumel/Cancun I would be a little antsy rate now.

[Ivanhater]

Don't like the looks of the 12z Nogaps!

[lonelymike]

What's to worry about? All the professional mets I've heard expects a weak and sheared tropical storm. Not an Ivan for sure.

[Evil Jeremy]

Maybe Ida is going to move just west of the next forecast point and if I were in Cozumel/Cancun I would be a little antsy rate now.

I also see a generally more westward component in Ida's movement now. Hopefully recon can give us some center fixes so we can determine a good motion, but it does look like Ida is starting to make that turn to the NW, though Ida also seems to be slowing down.

[deltadog03]

I think a cat 1 at landfall is certainly possible.

[Evil Jeremy]

What's to worry about? All the professional mets I've heard expects a weak and sheared tropical storm. Not an Ivan for sure.

And a weak/sheared tropical storm is nothing to worry about?

[Ivanhater]

What's to worry about? All the professional mets I've heard expects a weak and sheared tropical storm. Not an Ivan for sure.

I would suggest reading Derek's forecast, 70kts landfalling in the Pensacola area, JB is also predicting hurricane conditions for the Panhandle are possible.

Why things can change, there is plenty of reason to be cautious.

[Blown Away]

Well said Gator, that seems the most obvious solution for this time of year. IMO, the SST's really don't support anything more than a TS in the NGOM. That being said, 40+ mph winds in a condo on the beach or in a mobile home can be scary and the water piles up quickly especially in the Big Bend area.

Well, important things to remember are such: 1, it likely won't get that far north, what with the frontal zone charging southward by that point. Secondly, even if it does go that far north, it will be mostly extraropical by then, at which point the roughest part of the storm will be displaced well north and west of the center, especially with such a strong high pressure system coming in from behind the front. Wouldn't be surprised to see the entire northern Gulf coast get a prolonged period 40-50kt gusts, if not sustained winds, out of this. Because by that point, warm waters won't even play a role in its strength.

I agree, I was implying w/ the synoptic setup there would be high winds w/o a landfall TS. I'm seeing more of a west component w/ Ida recently and IMO the farther W Ida goes from the NHC track it will be less likely to make it to the Panhandle before being swept NE or ENE.

[Evil Jeremy]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071706
AF306 0211A IDA HDOB 24 20091107
165900 1735N 08450W 8430 01553 0079 +170 +146 307024 025 022 001 00
165930 1734N 08452W 8429 01557 0083 +167 +146 310022 023 023 001 00
170000 1733N 08453W 8431 01556 0087 +165 +145 312022 022 022 001 00
170030 1731N 08454W 8432 01556 0088 +165 +143 314022 022 022 001 00
170100 1730N 08455W 8427 01561 0089 +162 +142 313023 024 022 001 00
170130 1729N 08457W 8432 01557 0091 +163 +141 308023 023 020 001 00
170200 1728N 08458W 8429 01560 0092 +158 +140 307021 022 022 001 00
170230 1727N 08459W 8430 01558 0093 +156 +139 307021 021 020 002 00
170300 1726N 08500W 8432 01558 0093 +160 +138 305019 020 021 001 00
170330 1725N 08502W 8429 01559 0093 +160 +136 307019 020 023 000 00
170400 1724N 08503W 8430 01560 0092 +162 +135 302019 020 025 000 00
170430 1723N 08504W 8425 01564 0091 +162 +134 301018 019 021 002 00
170500 1722N 08505W 8430 01558 0088 +167 +133 305018 018 020 002 00
170530 1720N 08507W 8429 01560 0086 +170 +133 308018 018 023 000 00
170600 1719N 08508W 8430 01560 0090 +165 +134 306018 018 019 002 00
170630 1718N 08509W 8429 01561 0090 +165 +135 308017 017 021 000 00
170700 1717N 08510W 8430 01560 0093 +163 +136 307017 017 025 000 00
170730 1716N 08512W 8430 01562 0091 +165 +136 313018 019 026 000 00
170800 1715N 08513W 8428 01564 0093 +165 +137 314020 020 024 000 03
170830 1714N 08514W 8432 01563 0094 +161 +137 316019 020 025 000 03
$$

[KWT]

Actually thatsb a good point about the Yucatan, the SW side is pretty potent at the moment and a hurricane warning may well be needed IMO soon.