ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[MortisFL]

its already coming up on the 6Z position.. lol thats a little ahead of schedule

Aric, what are we looking at in the gulf if this is going faster? Any difference?

[ozonepete]

Unless it does an ET to a mostly baroclinic low...

I think the moisture from Ida will be absorbed into a baroclinic low forming on the front. And that low will be quite a nor'easter by late Wednesday/Thursday.

Yeah, that's what I see. I'm also wondering if it makes an early transition could we see hurricane force gusts from the panhandle to Jacksonville?

[boca]

It looks like Se Florida will stay relatively dry with the system pasing far enough west to not be in the rain shield.So much for drought relief.Our rain chances are a whopping 30%.

[Sanibel]

Definitely ahead of schedule


I think I see an eye and it is right of track.


I think this is a hurricane right now.

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[Macrocane]

It's still raining in El Salvador though it is more related to 96-E than to Ida, we've had a lot of rainfall in some parts of the country. This is the map of the accumulated precipitation between 7:00 a.m yesterday and 7:00 a.m today (taken from the SNET the official meteorologica agency):



117 mm (4.6 in) of rain fell in the Gulf of Fonseca, in 24 hours fell almost four times the climatological average for the whole month.

[Rainband]

man I hope gas doesn't go up from this.

[MGC]

All the oil and gas rigs are from Alabama west. This should not cause any problems for them....MGC

[Aric Dunn]

its already coming up on the 6Z position.. lol thats a little ahead of schedule

Aric, what are we looking at in the gulf if this is going faster? Any difference?

Its very hard to be for sure but the stronger its gets the longer it should hang onto tropical status. Landfall as a tropical system is still quite possible, I would give it a 50/50 chance of being tropical at the point of some sort of landfall. if it transitions the winds will become more expansive and may in some cases still be well above minimal TS winds. I think one thing everyone is missing is that the proximity to the low in the BOC is having a effect on IDA mostly probably giving it more of a northerly component that we have seen. Since they are so close they are going to in some respect interact and it may just be that the northerly component of IDA over the last day or so is do in part to the Fujiwara effect. I think the CMC had over done this effect as it is quite fast and too far to the left. I think a continued northerly motion over night will continue with a slight nnw but no where near as much as the models are forecasting afterwards it should start to get caught up in the trough and move NE to ene after that is fair game as it really depends on the state of IDA if its tropical or not. So in general no one is out of the woods.. tropical storm force winds will probably be felt over a large area regardless..

[Aric Dunn]

IT is very likely that it is a hurricane at this point..

[Rainband]

All the oil and gas rigs are from Alabama west. This should not cause any problems for them....MGC

yeah i know but if it even comes close it would give them an excuse

[ozonepete]

its already coming up on the 6Z position.. lol thats a little ahead of schedule

Aric, what are we looking at in the gulf if this is going faster? Any difference?

Its very hard to be for sure but the stronger its gets the longer it should hang onto tropical status. Landfall as a tropical system is still quite possible, I would give it a 50/50 chance of being tropical at the point of some sort of landfall. if it transitions the winds will become more expansive and may in some cases still be well above minimal TS winds. I think one thing everyone is missing is that the proximity to the low in the BOC is having a effect on IDA mostly probably giving it more of a northerly component that we have seen. Since they are so close they are going to in some respect interact and it may just be that the northerly component of IDA over the last day or so is do in part to the Fujiwara effect. I think the CMC had over done this effect as it is quite fast and too far to the left. I think a continued northerly motion over night will continue with a slight nnw but no where near as much as the models are forecasting afterwards it should start to get caught up in the trough and move NE to ene after that is fair game as it really depends on the state of IDA if its tropical or not. So in general no one is out of the woods.. tropical storm force winds will probably be felt over a large area regardless..

Wow, that was really well said.

[ozonepete]

From 19Z.

[Aric Dunn]

IT is very near this buoy... http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

pressure is about 1000mb..

[tolakram]

Cloud tops are warming.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... =spect.pal

[jinftl]

Thanks for the analysis. The models are clearly missing something...at least in the short-term....which is causing a general northward track (sure there is always a wobble here and a wobble there to the west). I am surprised the NHC has not really mentioned the persistent north track in any of the Discussions. Stating that a hurricane warning may be required for western Cuba is a consequence of the north track that the NHC mentioned....but they aren't addressing why the nnw or nw track isn't happening yet.

its already coming up on the 6Z position.. lol thats a little ahead of schedule

Aric, what are we looking at in the gulf if this is going faster? Any difference?

Its very hard to be for sure but the stronger its gets the longer it should hang onto tropical status. Landfall as a tropical system is still quite possible, I would give it a 50/50 chance of being tropical at the point of some sort of landfall. if it transitions the winds will become more expansive and may in some cases still be well above minimal TS winds. I think one thing everyone is missing is that the proximity to the low in the BOC is having a effect on IDA mostly probably giving it more of a northerly component that we have seen. Since they are so close they are going to in some respect interact and it may just be that the northerly component of IDA over the last day or so is do in part to the Fujiwara effect. I think the CMC had over done this effect as it is quite fast and too far to the left. I think a continued northerly motion over night will continue with a slight nnw but no where near as much as the models are forecasting afterwards it should start to get caught up in the trough and move NE to ene after that is fair game as it really depends on the state of IDA if its tropical or not. So in general no one is out of the woods.. tropical storm force winds will probably be felt over a large area regardless..

[Aric Dunn]

Cloud tops are warming.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... =spect.pal

yep .. thats what happens just before we see eyes form .. or its just another pulse.. so watch for both ..

Im leaning more towards just a pulse.. but could be.. the latest microwave just posted would go with a eye forming..

but its most likely a hurricane /../

[Sanibel]

You could almost extrapolate a hurricane hit on Guanahacabibes west tip of Cuba from that image.


I think I see a ragged eye trying to emerge just SSE of the highest tops in the center:

[Aric Dunn]

Here is a great image..
eyewall is not quite closed.. at least as of yet... but the convection is very intense and again is probably a hurricane.. its also good because it shows its orientation within the CDO at its general location ... it was a few hours ago now but still good..

[jinftl]

Windfield shows that it is really Cuba, and not the Yucatan Peninsula, that is likely to experience the most direct effects of Ida. Granted, it is not the NHC's call, but I am surprise Cuba has not placed hurricane warnings up for the far western tip of the island. If any area is going to experience hurricane winds....be they gusts or sustained winds if Ida gets her act together, it will be Cuba.

[Aric Dunn]

very nice images starting to come into cancun range... its too bad cuban radar is so slow..

last couple frames shows a pretty clear western eyewall..

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?70