ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[Aric Dunn]

So in 48 hours if the transition has not started ... I will expect to see more back pedaling .. as have seen ..

[Rainband]

track shifted well east

[Sanibel]

The eye sharpening and getting ragged in pulses is either strengthening or structure crashes. The IR convection weirdness could be either with this new split look to the convection. But there was the best black IR burst yet just preceding it.

Has to be 80mph sustained.

[ozonepete]

A system that is sheared and undergoing the process of becoming extratropical will likely have an expanding area of winds (ts force at most). Add in the pressure gradient tightening even more, and it is going to be a blustery period all over florida. We already have Coastal Flood Warnings in coastal southeast florida in effect and Wind Advisories in the Keys.... snip

Exactly, don't focus on the center of this type of system at "landfall". The worst weather may be a 150-200 miles from the center. The center may be a swirl of low clouds with relatively lighter winds all around.

Exactly. And that means places like Jacksonville too.

[cycloneye]

Hey!! who wants to decode and to post the google track?

[Aric Dunn]

My center fix was nearly dead on with the NHC

I said 20.2N and about 85 W

NHC>>> 20.1N 84.6W

that probably was the eye trying to pop out..

[HURAKAN]

I'm doing the Google maps tonight!

[cycloneye]

OB 3

000
URNT15 KNHC 080258
AF306 0311A IDA HDOB 03 20091108
025030 2957N 08948W 4243 07100 0328 -171 +999 144012 013 999 999 05
025100 2956N 08950W 4143 07267 0315 -177 +999 185015 016 999 999 05
025130 2955N 08952W 4091 07322 0299 -183 -183 196016 016 999 999 03
025200 2954N 08954W 4042 07444 0327 -190 -193 206016 016 999 999 03
025230 2953N 08956W 3997 07530 0366 -193 -206 213016 017 999 999 03
025300 2952N 08958W 3951 07633 0333 -195 -220 220018 019 999 999 03
025330 2951N 08959W 3909 07693 0339 -200 -236 229021 022 999 999 03
025400 2950N 09000W 3884 07722 0346 -203 -255 229024 026 999 999 03
025430 2948N 08959W 3848 07803 0354 -208 -270 232028 029 999 999 03
025500 2946N 08958W 3820 07831 0338 -212 -283 234029 030 999 999 03
025530 2944N 08957W 3791 07892 0341 -217 -295 238030 031 999 999 03
025600 2943N 08956W 3760 07951 0338 -222 -304 239031 032 999 999 03
025630 2941N 08955W 3726 08026 0352 -228 -311 238032 032 999 999 03
025700 2939N 08954W 3695 08091 0354 -232 -320 240035 037 999 999 03
025730 2937N 08953W 3667 08168 0367 -237 -328 243039 040 999 999 03
025800 2935N 08952W 3646 08257 0394 -241 -332 245040 040 999 999 03
025830 2933N 08951W 3622 08264 0383 -246 -333 248039 040 999 999 03
025900 2932N 08950W 3596 08304 0382 -251 -326 248037 038 999 999 03
025930 2930N 08949W 3572 08334 0370 -256 -311 249037 037 999 999 03
030000 2928N 08948W 3546 08415 0388 -258 -283 247039 040 999 999 03
$$

[Aric Dunn]

oh well .. it will probably become slightly decoupled again .. but will see..

[HURAKAN]

[tolakram]

Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... =spect.pal

Circled where it appears new convection to the north of the llc. I'm agreeing with the eye observations.

[AJC3]

Ok like I said I could be wrong. All I know is what I was told but I guess I was told inaccurate information. So could a extratropical system have 115mph winds then?

Some extremely intense (sub 950MB) north Atlantic gales have had sustained winds approaching 100 knots. I don't keep tabs on them nearly as close, but 90-100 knots would be pretty rare, and probably be close to the upper limit of intensity for a gale.

[jinftl]

NHC has shifted the forecast track and 'cone' east some from the 4pm advisory to the 10pm update, enough to take New Orleans out of the cone. Be interesting to see if this trend continues with future updates.

10pm Forecast Track:





Compared to 4pm Forecast Track:

[Aric Dunn]

Hurricane force at the buoy... http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056


they have upgraded before with gust from ships and buoys ... that just came in..

pressure 994mb at the buoy.. it maybe right in the SW eyewall..

[tolakram]

Check out the unenhanced IR loop as well.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ir4.html

Did Ida just jump into a more favorable environment?

[Aric Dunn]

Hurricane force at the buoy... http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056


they have upgraded before with gust from ships and buoys ... that just came in..

pressure 994mb at the buoy.. it maybe right in the SW eyewall..

Highest 1-minute Wind Speed
Time (CST) 5-day plot - 1-Minute Wind Speed WSPD 5-day plot - 1-Minute Wind Direction WDIR
8:30 pm 62.4 kts NNW ( 344 deg true )

being the weaker side of the storm... hmmmm.....

[RNGR]

Ok like I said I could be wrong. All I know is what I was told but I guess I was told inaccurate information. So could a extratropical system have 115mph winds then?

Some extremely intense (sub 950MB) north Atlantic gales have had sustained winds approaching 100 knots. I don't keep tabs on them nearly as close, but 90-100 knots would be pretty rare, and probably be close to the upper limit of intensity for a gale.

looking at the windfield of Ida per predictions from the models, it looks like they think she will be tropical. the highest winds tightly wrapped around the center. and i would think that a gale of that strength would be nearly impossible this far south. the 93' storm was probably a 1000 year event, though im just guessing at that one. lol

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 02:58Z
Date: November 8, 2009
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 11
Storm Name: Ida (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 03
Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
02:50:30 29.950N 89.800W 424.3 mb 7,100 m - From 144° (SE) at 12 kts (13.8 mph) 13 kts (~ 14.9 mph) - -
02:51:00 29.933N 89.833W 414.3 mb 7,267 m - From 185° (S) at 15 kts (17.2 mph) 16 kts (~ 18.4 mph) - -
02:51:30 29.917N 89.867W 409.1 mb 7,322 m - From 196° (SSW) at 16 kts (18.4 mph) 16 kts (~ 18.4 mph) - -
02:52:00 29.900N 89.900W 404.2 mb 7,444 m - From 206° (SSW) at 16 kts (18.4 mph) 16 kts (~ 18.4 mph) - -
02:52:30 29.883N 89.933W 399.7 mb 7,530 m - From 213° (SSW/SW) at 16 kts (18.4 mph) 17 kts (~ 19.5 mph) - -
02:53:00 29.867N 89.967W 395.1 mb 7,633 m - From 220° (SW) at 18 kts (20.7 mph) 19 kts (~ 21.8 mph) - -
02:53:30 29.850N 89.983W 390.9 mb 7,693 m - From 229° (SW) at 21 kts (24.1 mph) 22 kts (~ 25.3 mph) - -
02:54:00 29.833N 90.000W 388.4 mb 7,722 m - From 229° (SW) at 24 kts (27.6 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) - -
02:54:30 29.800N 89.983W 384.8 mb 7,803 m - From 232° (SW) at 28 kts (32.2 mph) 29 kts (~ 33.3 mph) - -
02:55:00 29.767N 89.967W 382.0 mb 7,831 m - From 234° (SW) at 29 kts (33.3 mph) 30 kts (~ 34.5 mph) - -
02:55:30 29.733N 89.950W 379.1 mb 7,892 m - From 238° (WSW) at 30 kts (34.5 mph) 31 kts (~ 35.6 mph) - -
02:56:00 29.717N 89.933W 376.0 mb 7,951 m - From 239° (WSW) at 31 kts (35.6 mph) 32 kts (~ 36.8 mph) - -
02:56:30 29.683N 89.917W 372.6 mb 8,026 m - From 238° (WSW) at 32 kts (36.8 mph) 32 kts (~ 36.8 mph) - -
02:57:00 29.650N 89.900W 369.5 mb 8,091 m - From 240° (WSW) at 35 kts (40.2 mph) 37 kts (~ 42.5 mph) - -
02:57:30 29.617N 89.883W 366.7 mb 8,168 m - From 243° (WSW) at 39 kts (44.8 mph) 40 kts (~ 46.0 mph) - -
02:58:00 29.583N 89.867W 364.6 mb 8,257 m - From 245° (WSW) at 40 kts (46.0 mph) 40 kts (~ 46.0 mph) - -
02:58:30 29.550N 89.850W 362.2 mb 8,264 m - From 248° (WSW) at 39 kts (44.8 mph) 40 kts (~ 46.0 mph) - -
02:59:00 29.533N 89.833W 359.6 mb 8,304 m - From 248° (WSW) at 37 kts (42.5 mph) 38 kts (~ 43.7 mph) - -
02:59:30 29.500N 89.817W 357.2 mb 8,334 m - From 249° (WSW) at 37 kts (42.5 mph) 37 kts (~ 42.5 mph) - -
03:00:00 29.467N 89.800W 354.6 mb 8,415 m - From 247° (WSW) at 39 kts (44.8 mph) 40 kts (~ 46.0 mph) - -
At 02:50:30Z (first observation), the observation was 16 miles (25 km) to the E (96°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
At 03:00:00Z (last observation), the observation was 38 miles (62 km) to the SSE (156°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.

[cycloneye]

OB 4

000
URNT15 KNHC 080308
AF306 0311A IDA HDOB 04 20091108
030030 2926N 08948W 3515 08462 0377 -265 -265 248038 039 999 999 05
030100 2924N 08947W 3480 08544 0390 -265 +999 243037 039 999 999 05
030130 2922N 08946W 3461 08596 0402 -269 +999 243034 036 999 999 05
030200 2920N 08945W 3444 08618 0392 -270 +999 240032 032 999 999 05
030230 2918N 08944W 3439 08633 0389 -273 +999 236031 032 999 999 05
030300 2916N 08943W 3443 08637 0405 -271 +999 235030 031 999 999 05
030330 2914N 08942W 3443 08639 0407 -268 +999 230033 035 999 999 05
030400 2912N 08941W 3441 08643 0410 -265 +999 226036 036 999 999 05
030430 2910N 08940W 3443 08647 0411 -265 +999 224037 037 999 999 05
030500 2909N 08939W 3443 08636 0411 -265 +999 223039 039 999 999 05
030530 2907N 08938W 3442 08639 0410 -265 +999 223040 041 999 999 05
030600 2905N 08937W 3442 08642 0410 -266 +999 223041 042 999 999 05
030630 2903N 08936W 3443 08642 0412 -265 +999 221040 041 999 999 05
030700 2901N 08935W 3443 08636 0410 -265 +999 219037 038 999 999 05
030730 2859N 08934W 3442 08642 0413 -265 +999 219039 039 999 999 05
030800 2857N 08933W 3443 08642 0413 -265 +999 217039 039 999 999 05
030830 2855N 08932W 3442 08646 0414 -265 +999 217039 039 999 999 05
030900 2854N 08931W 3443 08643 0411 -265 +999 217038 039 999 999 05
030930 2852N 08930W 3442 08638 0413 -265 +999 219038 039 999 999 05
031000 2850N 08929W 3442 08648 0418 -265 +999 220035 036 999 999 05

[Hurricanewatcher2007]

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 03:08Z
Date: November 8, 2009
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 11
Storm Name: Ida (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 04
Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
03:00:30 29.433N 89.800W 351.5 mb 8,462 m - From 248° (WSW) at 38 kts (43.7 mph) 39 kts (~ 44.8 mph) - -
03:01:00 29.400N 89.783W 348.0 mb 8,544 m - From 243° (WSW) at 37 kts (42.5 mph) 39 kts (~ 44.8 mph) - -
03:01:30 29.367N 89.767W 346.1 mb 8,596 m - From 243° (WSW) at 34 kts (39.1 mph) 36 kts (~ 41.4 mph) - -
03:02:00 29.333N 89.750W 344.4 mb 8,618 m - From 240° (WSW) at 32 kts (36.8 mph) 32 kts (~ 36.8 mph) - -
03:02:30 29.300N 89.733W 343.9 mb 8,633 m - From 236° (SW/WSW) at 31 kts (35.6 mph) 32 kts (~ 36.8 mph) - -
03:03:00 29.267N 89.717W 344.3 mb 8,637 m - From 235° (SW) at 30 kts (34.5 mph) 31 kts (~ 35.6 mph) - -
03:03:30 29.233N 89.700W 344.3 mb 8,639 m - From 230° (SW) at 33 kts (37.9 mph) 35 kts (~ 40.2 mph) - -
03:04:00 29.200N 89.683W 344.1 mb 8,643 m - From 226° (SW) at 36 kts (41.4 mph) 36 kts (~ 41.4 mph) - -
03:04:30 29.167N 89.667W 344.3 mb 8,647 m - From 224° (SW) at 37 kts (42.5 mph) 37 kts (~ 42.5 mph) - -
03:05:00 29.150N 89.650W 344.3 mb 8,636 m - From 223° (SW) at 39 kts (44.8 mph) 39 kts (~ 44.8 mph) - -
03:05:30 29.117N 89.633W 344.2 mb 8,639 m - From 223° (SW) at 40 kts (46.0 mph) 41 kts (~ 47.1 mph) - -
03:06:00 29.083N 89.617W 344.2 mb 8,642 m - From 223° (SW) at 41 kts (47.1 mph) 42 kts (~ 48.3 mph) - -
03:06:30 29.050N 89.600W 344.3 mb 8,642 m - From 221° (SW) at 40 kts (46.0 mph) 41 kts (~ 47.1 mph) - -
03:07:00 29.017N 89.583W 344.3 mb 8,636 m - From 219° (SW) at 37 kts (42.5 mph) 38 kts (~ 43.7 mph) - -
03:07:30 28.983N 89.567W 344.2 mb 8,642 m - From 219° (SW) at 39 kts (44.8 mph) 39 kts (~ 44.8 mph) - -
03:08:00 28.950N 89.550W 344.3 mb 8,642 m - From 217° (SW) at 39 kts (44.8 mph) 39 kts (~ 44.8 mph) - -
03:08:30 28.917N 89.533W 344.2 mb 8,646 m - From 217° (SW) at 39 kts (44.8 mph) 39 kts (~ 44.8 mph) - -
03:09:00 28.900N 89.517W 344.3 mb 8,643 m - From 217° (SW) at 38 kts (43.7 mph) 39 kts (~ 44.8 mph) - -
03:09:30 28.867N 89.500W 344.2 mb 8,638 m - From 219° (SW) at 38 kts (43.7 mph) 39 kts (~ 44.8 mph) - -
03:10:00 28.833N 89.483W 344.2 mb 8,648 m - From 220° (SW) at 35 kts (40.2 mph) 36 kts (~ 41.4 mph) - -
At 03:00:30Z (first observation), the observation was 40 miles (65 km) to the SSE (157°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
At 03:10:00Z (last observation), the observation was 86 miles (139 km) to the SSE (156°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.