ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[Aric Dunn]

I think it had just ingested some dry air and is working it out.. seems more plausible since the shear has actually either not changed or slightly decreased over the last 12 hours or so ..

[HURAKAN]

[Stormcenter]

The thing is that the dry air (and shear) is only going to get worse as she moves north. Ida has seen her best hours. IMO

I think it had just ingested some dry air and is working it out.. seems more plausible since the shear has actually either not changed or slightly decreased over the last 12 hours or so ..

[brunota2003]

They've avoided the SW side so far...assuming because land is so close or?

[Aric Dunn]

although i would not rule out some decoupling.. even those the previous to passes indicated that the midlevel and surface circs were well within normal offsets..

[WindRunner]

For those interested, the surveillance flight for this evening is already off and making drops, this is their 3rd...

UZNT13 KNHC 082026
XXAA 58204 99250 70870 08157 99010 26035 07528 00088 25235 08036
92769 19609 08543 85496 17233 10540 70130 08658 10535 50584 06307
11529 40756 15920 12022 88999 77999
31313 09608 82010
51515 10190 30967
61616 AF307 0511A IDA OB 04
62626 SPL 2506N08709W 2021 MBL WND 08039 AEV 20800 DLM WND 11027
009315 WL150 08035 085 REL 2503N08700W 201021 SPG 2506N08709W 202
122 =
XXBB 58208 99250 70870 08157 00010 26035 11923 19608 22872 17207
33850 17233 44778 11808 55758 13059 66733 11661 77721 10456 88686
07456 99680 07260 11656 05635 22589 00118 33552 01708 44477 08708
55450 09757 66421 14125 77382 17708 88373 18130 99338 24728 11315
26516
21212 00010 07528 11003 08035 22990 08040 33960 08043 44864 10038
55850 10540 66650 10031 77541 12029 88433 09524 99402 12024 11367
17525 22346 21016 33336 22020 44324 18026 55315 18033
31313 09608 82010
51515 10190 30967
61616 AF307 0511A IDA OB 04
62626 SPL 2506N08709W 2021 MBL WND 08039 AEV 20800 DLM WND 11027
009315 WL150 08035 085 REL 2503N08700W 201021 SPG 2506N08709W 202
122 =

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 082031
AF309 0411A IDA HDOB 36 20091108
202330 2118N 08524W 6967 03143 0054 +080 +058 218033 033 037 005 00
202400 2117N 08523W 6963 03148 0049 +084 +057 216034 035 038 006 00
202430 2115N 08521W 6955 03156 0044 +090 +051 218039 040 034 004 00
202500 2114N 08520W 6966 03141 0040 +095 +049 214037 040 035 002 00
202530 2112N 08518W 6968 03143 0045 +092 +049 214038 038 032 002 00
202600 2111N 08517W 6970 03141 0048 +090 +050 211038 038 032 000 00
202630 2109N 08515W 6969 03141 0050 +089 +051 214036 037 031 000 00
202700 2108N 08514W 6970 03146 0055 +085 +052 213036 036 031 000 00
202730 2106N 08512W 6970 03144 0057 +085 +052 215035 035 030 001 00
202800 2105N 08511W 6967 03151 0059 +085 +052 218034 034 030 000 00
202830 2103N 08509W 6970 03147 0059 +085 +052 216032 032 027 002 00
202900 2101N 08507W 6968 03149 0062 +084 +052 215033 033 029 001 00
202930 2100N 08506W 6970 03151 0057 +088 +052 217033 034 030 000 00
203000 2058N 08504W 6969 03150 0054 +090 +052 214033 034 029 001 00
203030 2057N 08503W 6967 03154 0056 +090 +053 213032 033 029 000 00
203100 2055N 08501W 6969 03152 0057 +090 +053 213032 032 029 001 00
203130 2054N 08500W 6969 03151 0061 +087 +054 213032 032 031 000 00
203200 2052N 08458W 6967 03158 0064 +087 +054 213032 032 030 000 00
203230 2051N 08457W 6980 03145 0061 +093 +055 216032 033 029 002 00
203300 2050N 08455W 6953 03172 0067 +085 +054 212034 035 029 002 00
$$
;

[Dave]

000
URNT12 KNHC 082032
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112009
A. 08/20:04:50Z
B. 22 deg 03 min N
086 deg 13 min W
C. 700 mb 2903 m
D. 77 kt
E. 360 deg 11 nm
F. 092 deg 90 kt
G. 012 deg 9 nm
H. 976 mb
I. 6 C / 3079 m
J. 20 C / 3055 m
K. 12 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 0411A IDA OB 14
MAX FL WIND 94 KT NE QUAD 18:21:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 22 C 142 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR
PARTIAL WALL NW
SFC CENTER 7NM SOUTH OF FLT LEVEL
;

[Aric Dunn]

The thing is there the dry air (and shear) is only going to get worse as she moves north. Ida has seen her best hours. IMO

I think it had just ingested some dry air and is working it out.. seems more plausible since the shear has actually either not changed or slightly decreased over the last 12 hours or so ..

but thats the thing.. the shear should actually not get much worse as it continues to decrease out ahead of it.... the gfdl and hwrf have maintained strength this whole time and have nailed the forecast thus far! the small upperlow that has been to IDA SW is still moving north in tandem with IDA and the environment has not changed in 3 days... even though the NHC has said it should have increased over the northern carribean which it did not ..

they first said no hurricane then said transition would have by now that was moved back .. now they says it may be a tropical just a couple hundred miles off the coast and still a hurricane .. clearly the majority of the models minus the gfdl and hwrf are missing something..

I dont think we should jump to any conclusions yet as the pressure continues to fall still !!!

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 082033
XXAA 58207 99222 70862 08126 99994 24008 ///// 00549 ///// /////
92633 22223 04080 85369 19220 05568 70020 08824 07061 88999 77999
31313 09608 81954
61616 AF309 0411A IDA OB 15
62626 EYEWALL 315 SPL 2220N08628W 1958 LST WND 219 AEV 20801 DLM
WND 05068 970694 REL 2224N08623W 195456 SPG 2221N08630W 195813 =
XXBB 58208 99222 70862 08126 00994 24008 11868 21233 22850 19220
33709 12017 44694 06429
21212 00994 ///// 11970 02571 22962 03067 33946 03580 44914 04081
55875 04566 66859 05070 77850 05568 88826 05554 99809 05570 11758
05574 22706 05553 33694 08072
31313 09608 81954
61616 AF309 0411A IDA OB 15
62626 EYEWALL 315 SPL 2220N08628W 1958 LST WND 219 AEV 20801 DLM
WND 05068 970694 REL 2224N08623W 195456 SPG 2221N08630W 195813 =
;

[WindRunner]

Eye drop has 976mb/21kts...so be thinking 974mb.


UZNT13 KNHC 082034
XXAA 58207 99220 70862 08126 99976 26618 32021 00719 ///// /////
92471 23614 33023 85212 22243 36026 70894 16633 02507 88999 77999
31313 09608 82004
61616 AF309 0411A IDA OB 16
62626 EYE SPL 2202N08623W 2009 MBL WND 33023 AEV 20801 DLM WND 36
023 975696 WL150 33027 086 REL 2205N08623W 200451 SPG 2202N08623W
200901 =
XXBB 58208 99220 70862 08126 00976 26618 11914 23014 22902 24037
33850 22243 44806 22458 55730 19459 66696 16025
21212 00976 32021 11972 32527 22963 33029 33959 34028 44951 33018
55944 32522 66928 33022 77916 33526 88905 32535 99896 34531 11888
35030 22881 35025 33850 36026 44820 02529 55765 01022 66738 02027
77715 02516 88709 04013 99696 03007
31313 09608 82004
61616 AF309 0411A IDA OB 16
62626 EYE SPL 2202N08623W 2009 MBL WND 33023 AEV 20801 DLM WND 36
023 975696 WL150 33027 086 REL 2205N08623W 200451 SPG 2202N08623W
200901 =
;

[Dave]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 082035
XXAA 58207 99219 70860 08116 99986 26825 ///// 00626 ///// /////
92566 26256 19577 85313 25460 21078 70996 15424 23076 88999 77999
31313 09608 82010
61616 AF309 0411A IDA OB 17
62626 EYEWALL 135 SPL 2195N08592W 2015 LST WND 017 MBL WND 18573
AEV 20801 DLM WND 21076 984697 WL150 17572 090 REL 2187N08598W 20
1056 SPG 2195N08592W 201545 =
XXBB 58208 99219 70860 08116 00986 26825 11850 25460 22762 20861
33720 17060 44697 15016
21212 00986 ///// 11984 17069 22967 18577 33933 19575 44881 20577
55865 21581 66850 21078 77697 23075
31313 09608 82010
61616 AF309 0411A IDA OB 17
62626 EYEWALL 135 SPL 2195N08592W 2015 LST WND 017 MBL WND 18573
AEV 20801 DLM WND 21076 984697 WL150 17572 090 REL 2187N08598W 20
1056 SPG 2195N08592W 201545 =
;

[brunota2003]

Interesting details here:

000
URNT12 KNHC 082032
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112009
A. 08/20:04:50Z
B. 22 deg 03 min N
086 deg 13 min W
C. 700 mb 2903 m
D. 77 kt
E. 360 deg 11 nm
F. 092 deg 90 kt
G. 012 deg 9 nm
H. 976 mb
I. 6 C / 3079 m
J. 20 C / 3055 m
K. 12 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 0411A IDA OB 14
MAX FL WIND 94 KT NE QUAD 18:21:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 22 C 142 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR
PARTIAL WALL NW
SFC CENTER 7NM SOUTH OF FLT LEVEL
;

[Sanibel]

I go with 80-85KT peak-out and Gulf reality (as is starting show in storm).



Nice little gradient gust here just now.

[HURAKAN]

[Stormcenter]

I hear you but water temps and shear (it will be there) are too much IMO for it to overcome no matter what the models
are saying. Now I'm referring to Ida making landfall a hurricane. Like I said before I have to see it to believe it first.

The thing is there the dry air (and shear) is only going to get worse as she moves north. Ida has seen her best hours. IMO

I think it had just ingested some dry air and is working it out.. seems more plausible since the shear has actually either not changed or slightly decreased over the last 12 hours or so ..

but thats the thing.. the shear should actually not get much worse as it continues to decrease out ahead of it.... the gfdl and hwrf have maintained strength this whole time and have nailed the forecast thus far! the small upperlow that has been to IDA SW is still moving north in tandem with IDA and the environment has not changed in 3 days... even though the NHC has said it should have increased over the northern carribean which it did not ..

they first said no hurricane then said transition would have by now that was moved back .. now they says it may be a tropical just a couple hundred miles off the coast and still a hurricane .. clearly the majority of the models minus the gfdl and hwrf are missing something..

I dont think we should jump to any conclusions yet as the pressure continues to fall still !!!

[Aric Dunn]

Interesting details here:


MAX FL WIND 94 KT NE QUAD 18:21:00Z
MAX FL TEMP 22 C 142 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR
PARTIAL WALL NW
SFC CENTER 7NM SOUTH OF FLT LEVEL
;

yeah there is some displacement as there was yesterday too for a time. 7nm is not too bad.. we just have to watch and see if this continues then we can say the shear is getting to it.. someone a minute ago said there was a small jet streak that seemed to hit ida.. its very possible some short term disruption is occurring but otherwise the upper environment has maintain per the cimss.

[cycloneye]

Moving a little more faster.

[HURAKAN]

UZNT13 KNHC 082034
XXAA 58207 99220 70862 08126 99976 26618 32021 00719 ///// /////
92471 23614 33023 85212 22243 36026 70894 16633 02507 88999 77999
31313 09608 82004
61616 AF309 0411A IDA OB 16
62626 EYE SPL 2202N08623W 2009 MBL WND 33023 AEV 20801 DLM WND 36
023 975696 WL150 33027 086 REL 2205N08623W 200451 SPG 2202N08623W
200901 =
XXBB 58208 99220 70862 08126 00976 26618 11914 23014 22902 24037
33850 22243 44806 22458 55730 19459 66696 16025
21212 00976 32021 11972 32527 22963 33029 33959 34028 44951 33018
55944 32522 66928 33022 77916 33526 88905 32535 99896 34531 11888
35030 22881 35025 33850 36026 44820 02529 55765 01022 66738 02027
77715 02516 88709 04013 99696 03007
31313 09608 82004
61616 AF309 0411A IDA OB 16
62626 EYE SPL 2202N08623W 2009 MBL WND 33023 AEV 20801 DLM WND 36
023 975696 WL150 33027 086 REL 2205N08623W 200451 SPG 2202N08623W
200901 =

976 mb was not in the center bc 21 knots were measured. 974 mb could be more correct

[Dave]

URNT15 KNHC 082042
AF309 0411A IDA HDOB 37 20091108
203330 2048N 08454W 6809 03357 0067 +078 +053 209033 034 029 005 03
203400 2047N 08453W 6441 03819 0067 +054 +049 211034 034 999 999 03
203430 2046N 08451W 6185 04151 0063 +037 +037 216033 034 999 999 03
203500 2044N 08450W 5977 04409 0034 +027 +027 217032 032 999 999 03
203530 2043N 08449W 5771 04690 0019 +012 +012 220032 033 999 999 03
203600 2041N 08448W 5596 04953 0009 +006 +006 220029 029 999 999 03
203630 2040N 08447W 5429 05203 0238 -013 +999 216029 029 999 999 05
203700 2038N 08446W 5265 05444 0255 -026 +999 211031 032 999 999 05
203730 2037N 08446W 5103 05699 0272 -040 +999 210032 032 999 999 05
203800 2036N 08445W 4967 05907 0285 -048 +999 213029 030 026 001 05
203830 2034N 08444W 4884 06041 0296 -057 +999 214025 027 027 000 01
203900 2033N 08443W 4769 06228 0309 -072 +999 212024 025 027 001 05
203930 2031N 08442W 4635 06453 0323 -084 +999 215024 024 026 001 05
204000 2030N 08441W 4541 06603 0326 -093 +999 221024 025 027 000 01
204030 2028N 08440W 4439 06769 0331 -102 +999 224029 030 027 000 05
204100 2026N 08439W 4349 06928 0341 -111 +999 226030 030 025 001 05
204130 2025N 08438W 4262 07090 0352 -122 +999 225029 029 025 000 05
204200 2023N 08437W 4173 07248 0364 -134 +999 222028 029 026 000 01
204230 2022N 08436W 4083 07411 0375 -146 +999 218027 028 024 001 05
204300 2020N 08435W 4000 07567 0386 -156 +999 220026 027 024 000 01
$$
;