ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

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Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA

#3181 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 08, 2009 5:39 pm

There is no doubt what direction Ida is moving,NNW and a little more faster.

Image
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Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA

#3182 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Nov 08, 2009 5:39 pm

Image

Image
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Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA

#3183 Postby MGC » Sun Nov 08, 2009 5:40 pm

The problem I have with using standard conversion factors is that not every tropical cyclone has an identical eyewall profile. You could take a sample of five different tropical cyclones and each one might have a different conversion factor depending if the cyclone is deepening, weakening or steady state. I know SFMR has its issues. It has a very narrow beamwith which is like drawing a radial line under the path of the aircraft, add into that if the aircraft is rolling or pitching which might also throw off the measurments......MGC
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Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA

#3184 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Nov 08, 2009 5:40 pm

cycloneye wrote:There is no doubt what direction Ida is moving,NNW and a little more faster.

Image


yep about 340 to 350 and speeding up .. :)
and on the right side of the forecast cone..
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Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA

#3185 Postby ozonepete » Sun Nov 08, 2009 5:42 pm

500mb is a good proxy for steering, and in this case quite important. Here's the 18Z run of the GFS forecast for 500mb heights and vorticity for tonight at 6Z and tomorrow morning at 12Z. You can see the importance of how fast and how strong that 500mb trough is.

Image

Image
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#3186 Postby Dave » Sun Nov 08, 2009 5:43 pm

URNT15 KWBC 082232
NOAA2 IDA1 HDOB 14 20091108
222230 2634N 08758W 7272 02836 0107 +119 -245 118029 029 031 001 00
222300 2635N 08756W 7276 02832 0108 +119 -242 118030 031 030 001 00
222330 2635N 08754W 7277 02830 0110 +117 -267 117031 031 030 000 00
222400 2636N 08752W 7278 02829 0111 +116 -273 117030 031 031 001 00
222430 2636N 08750W 7277 02830 0110 +117 -275 117030 031 030 000 00
222500 2637N 08748W 7277 02829 0113 +114 -273 117030 030 029 001 00
222530 2638N 08746W 7276 02831 0112 +115 -277 117030 030 029 000 00
222600 2638N 08745W 7277 02831 0112 +117 -301 118030 030 029 002 00
222630 2639N 08743W 7276 02834 0115 +116 -307 118030 030 029 000 00
222700 2639N 08741W 7276 02835 0115 +117 -309 118029 030 028 000 00
222730 2640N 08739W 7275 02837 0118 +116 -308 117029 029 030 000 00
222800 2640N 08737W 7277 02836 0117 +118 -316 119029 029 029 001 00
222830 2641N 08735W 7276 02839 0116 +119 -319 121029 029 030 000 00
222900 2642N 08733W 7272 02844 0117 +117 -316 121030 030 030 001 00
222930 2642N 08731W 7275 02836 0114 +117 -316 121030 031 028 001 00
223000 2643N 08729W 7275 02837 0113 +119 -311 053040 111 028 000 03
223030 2644N 08727W 7275 02837 0114 +119 -294 124030 030 029 001 00
223100 2644N 08725W 7275 02839 0115 +119 -291 124030 030 029 000 00
223130 2645N 08723W 7275 02839 0117 +117 -297 122030 030 029 000 00
223200 2645N 08721W 7275 02840 0116 +119 -298 124030 030 030 000 00
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#3187 Postby WindRunner » Sun Nov 08, 2009 5:43 pm

For the NOAA flight...I'm hoping this was a typo??? Especially since last set of obs has them descending...but they are flying N and E right now. Who knows?

URNT11 KWBC 082208
97779 22084 10263 89000 42500 13026 01583 /8020
RMK NOAA2 IDA1 OB 02 KWBC
LAST REPORT
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#3188 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Nov 08, 2009 5:44 pm

the pressure is not 977mb. The dropsonde had a 45KT surface wind. Probably about 975 or even 974
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Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA

#3189 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Nov 08, 2009 5:45 pm

Shear still dropping and IDA is nearing area of less than 20kts of shear... since its been under 20kt so far well you get the hint..
present..
Image

last 3 hours..
Image
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#3190 Postby Dave » Sun Nov 08, 2009 5:45 pm

URNT15 KNHC 082241
AF309 0411A IDA HDOB 49 20091108
223330 2352N 08533W 6967 03155 0067 +085 +030 111043 044 046 000 00
223400 2352N 08535W 6970 03150 0066 +085 +031 109041 041 047 000 00
223430 2352N 08538W 6967 03152 0069 +082 +032 107041 042 046 001 00
223500 2352N 08540W 6966 03155 0072 +080 +033 108041 042 047 003 00
223530 2353N 08542W 6967 03154 0074 +077 +034 111044 045 046 003 00
223600 2353N 08545W 6967 03152 0072 +079 +034 112045 045 046 003 00
223630 2353N 08547W 6969 03151 0072 +080 +032 114044 045 047 004 00
223700 2353N 08549W 6966 03154 0077 +075 +031 112043 044 048 004 00
223730 2353N 08552W 6967 03152 0079 +073 +029 110046 047 047 005 00
223800 2353N 08554W 6967 03152 0079 +072 +028 107046 046 046 006 00
223830 2354N 08556W 6967 03151 0077 +074 +026 108046 046 044 006 00
223900 2354N 08559W 6966 03151 0076 +075 +025 107045 046 046 005 00
223930 2354N 08601W 6968 03148 0077 +074 +023 107045 046 046 004 00
224000 2354N 08603W 6966 03151 0074 +076 +022 109049 049 046 003 00
224030 2354N 08606W 6967 03148 0070 +077 +021 108050 050 045 001 00
224100 2354N 08608W 6969 03145 0069 +080 +021 109050 051 045 001 00
224130 2354N 08610W 6967 03150 0069 +080 +022 109051 052 044 002 00
224200 2355N 08613W 6967 03151 0069 +080 +023 109051 052 045 001 00
224230 2355N 08615W 6967 03149 0072 +077 +025 106050 051 045 001 00
224300 2355N 08618W 6967 03151 0072 +077 +026 104050 051 045 002 00
$$
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Re:

#3191 Postby Dave » Sun Nov 08, 2009 5:48 pm

[quote="WindRunner"]For the NOAA flight...I'm hoping this was a typo??? Especially since last set of obs has them descending...but they are flying N and E right now. Who knows?

Google Earth still has NOAA2 off the coast of Florida. :roll:
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Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA

#3192 Postby Dionne » Sun Nov 08, 2009 5:48 pm

There won't be any real estate closings in the cone for the next few days!
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Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA

#3193 Postby IvanSurvivor » Sun Nov 08, 2009 5:49 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Image

Image


Ivan- where can I find/zoom on that map? Trying to see what the surge could be for where Bayou Grande, Davenport and Pensacola Bay meet. Looks like 5+ at the end of Bayou Grande, but may 4-5 at the mouth?
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Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA

#3194 Postby deltadog03 » Sun Nov 08, 2009 5:51 pm

WOW...Very impressive VIS shot right now. Prob. the last one of day

Image
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#3195 Postby Dave » Sun Nov 08, 2009 5:52 pm

URNT15 KWBC 082242
NOAA2 IDA1 HDOB 15 20091108
223230 2646N 08719W 7275 02841 0118 +118 -291 124029 029 030 000 00
223300 2647N 08717W 7276 02841 0118 +119 -283 126029 029 030 000 00
223330 2647N 08715W 7275 02844 0117 +120 -241 127029 029 029 000 00
223400 2648N 08713W 7276 02836 0114 +119 -252 126029 029 029 000 00
223430 2648N 08711W 7275 02838 0119 +114 -301 122028 028 030 000 00
223500 2649N 08709W 7275 02838 0122 +113 -314 121028 028 030 000 00
223530 2649N 08707W 7274 02840 0125 +111 -297 120027 028 030 001 00
223600 2650N 08705W 7276 02839 0126 +110 -280 121027 028 030 000 00
223630 2651N 08703W 7275 02839 0124 +112 -293 122028 028 029 000 00
223700 2651N 08701W 7277 02836 0118 +116 -289 126028 028 029 001 00
223730 2652N 08659W 7274 02839 0119 +114 -228 124028 029 027 000 00
223800 2652N 08657W 7274 02839 0123 +110 -251 123028 029 029 001 00
223830 2653N 08655W 7276 02837 0125 +110 -301 123028 028 028 001 00
223900 2654N 08653W 7275 02837 0125 +110 -321 123029 029 028 000 00
223930 2654N 08651W 7275 02838 0125 +110 -277 123029 029 029 001 00
224000 2655N 08649W 7274 02840 0128 +108 -299 120028 028 029 000 00
224030 2655N 08647W 7273 02841 0129 +107 -292 119027 028 028 000 00
224100 2656N 08645W 7275 02841 0129 +109 -303 120028 028 028 001 00
224130 2657N 08643W 7274 02842 0128 +109 -305 121028 028 028 001 00
224200 2657N 08641W 7274 02842 0126 +110 -273 121028 028 029 000 00
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Re: Re:

#3196 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sun Nov 08, 2009 5:53 pm

ai9d wrote:Google Earth still has NOAA2 off the coast of Florida. :roll:


The NOAA obs are missing part of the header and the GE system is rejecting the data. I am in the process of trying to patch it to allow it now.
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#3197 Postby Dave » Sun Nov 08, 2009 5:55 pm

URNT15 KNHC 082251
AF309 0411A IDA HDOB 50 20091108
224330 2355N 08620W 6967 03152 0074 +075 +027 105049 050 045 002 00
224400 2355N 08622W 6973 03147 0077 +076 +028 107051 051 044 000 03
224430 2354N 08624W 6964 03153 0075 +075 +028 107050 050 999 999 03
224500 2352N 08624W 6967 03147 0068 +078 +028 111051 051 040 002 00
224530 2351N 08624W 6967 03145 0062 +082 +028 113050 051 043 000 00
224600 2349N 08624W 6967 03146 0058 +085 +029 113051 053 043 001 00
224630 2348N 08624W 6967 03143 0061 +081 +030 112051 053 043 001 00
224700 2346N 08624W 6969 03145 0055 +086 +031 113048 049 044 003 00
224730 2344N 08624W 6966 03146 0056 +084 +032 112045 046 043 003 00
224800 2343N 08624W 6967 03142 0059 +080 +033 111046 047 043 005 00
224830 2341N 08624W 6967 03143 0055 +083 +033 112043 044 045 004 00
224900 2340N 08624W 6966 03139 0047 +087 +032 111043 044 045 007 00
224930 2338N 08624W 6966 03136 0048 +084 +032 112038 041 046 007 00
225000 2336N 08624W 6966 03137 0039 +090 +032 113036 036 048 006 00
225030 2335N 08624W 6966 03136 0039 +089 +031 113037 038 046 006 00
225100 2333N 08624W 6968 03133 0035 +090 +030 116036 037 047 003 00
225130 2331N 08624W 6969 03131 0036 +088 +030 113036 036 049 004 00
225200 2330N 08624W 6962 03133 0043 +080 +031 106036 037 049 005 00
225230 2328N 08625W 6969 03127 0056 +069 +030 100037 038 051 005 00
225300 2326N 08625W 6970 03124 0049 +072 +029 102039 040 052 009 00
$$
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Re: Re:

#3198 Postby Dave » Sun Nov 08, 2009 5:56 pm

Chris_in_Tampa wrote:
ai9d wrote:Google Earth still has NOAA2 off the coast of Florida. :roll:


The NOAA obs are missing part of the header and the GE system is rejecting the data. I am in the process of trying to patch it to allow it now.


Thanks Chris
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#3199 Postby Dave » Sun Nov 08, 2009 5:58 pm

Image
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Re: ATL : HURRICANE IDA

#3200 Postby srainhoutx » Sun Nov 08, 2009 5:59 pm

Baroclinic processes are coming together this evening. W GOM low is slowly deepening and Ida is maintaining her strength and increasing in speed. Interesting setup, but it is November 8th. :wink:
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