ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[JTE50]

Try driving a high profile vehicle or truck and stay in a narrow lane on a bridge with winds above 45mph hitting you broadside and you'll understand why. It would look like a Bristol Nascar race out there!

You mean something like this on a bridge?

[Macrocane]

Dry air has made difficult the intensification of Ida it could be now a cat 3 IMO if it wasn0t for the moderate shear and the dry air. But cat 3 or no it's a dangerous hurricane and will be a dangeroun extratropical storm if the transition occurs. Take care.

By the way, the death toll has risen to 124 in El Salvador.

[stormy1970al]

Also, there's the rising water. Mobile County, AL has NOT closed schools, yet, but we have a school on Dauphin Island and several in the Bayou La Batre area. Those areas will be affected by coastal flooding before the rest of the county. We'll see what they decide to do about those.

They will close them (in Mobile Co.) if a Hurricane Warning is issued. What would suck is if one is issued in the middle of the night (I would guess they will issue one at midnight for us), and all of the parents wake up in the morning and have nothing to do with their children for the day because they still have to go to work. We have already called the parents from my school just to give them the heads up...

As of 7pm, Baldwin Co. schools were to be open tomorrow, although that may change if a Hurricane Warning is issued...

Anyways, that is what Mobile Co. is waiting on to decide...[/quote]


Baldwin County schools are officially closed for tomorrow. I just got an email and a phone call from the automated system for alerts from them. I posted it just a few minutes ago.

[Dean4Storms]

Latest out of Mobile NWS....

...WINDS...
THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO
ONSET MONDAY. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST PATH...IDA SHOULD BE LOCATED
NEAR THE MOUTH OF MOBILE BAY BY SUNRISE TUESDAY WITH NEAR HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 65 TO 75 MPH RANGE...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EXPECT 40 50 MPH WINDS INLAND WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
IDA WILL THEN TURN MORE TO THE EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CREATE A VERY WINDY
SITUATION EVEN IF IDA`S CENTER DOES PASS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO ANY
GIVEN POINT...SO DO NOT JUST FOCUS ON THE LATEST TRACK`S CENTERLINE.
POWER OUTAGES ARE A STRONG POSSIBILITY WITH THIS IDA...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST.

...STORM SURGE...TOTAL TIDE HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 7 FEET ARE POSSIBLE WEST
OF THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA LINE...ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER REACHES OF
MOBILE BAY(INCLUDING BAYOU SARA)...DOG RIVER...THE WEST END OF
DAUPHIN ISLAND AND BAYOU LA BATRE. EAST OF ORANGE BEACH TOTAL TIDE
HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 2.5 TO 3.5 FEET. THE TIME OF ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDE ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 AM ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL EXACERBATE STORM RELATED FLOODING SINCE IDA`S FORECAST
LANDFALL IS JUST A FEW HOURS THEREAFTER. IF IDA MOVES IN
EARLIER...THE TIME OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE MAY COINCIDE WITH
LANDFALL WHICH COULD RAISE THE AFOREMENTIONED VALUES.

[Bruton]

Ivanhater,

Is that face you have as your avatar, your reaction to this storm headed your way?

[SunnyThoughts]

Apparently SANTA ROSA county schools will be open tomorrow, and a decision will be made tomorrow concerning possible closure Tuesday.

[Alacane2]

at 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...a Hurricane Warning has been issued for
the northern Gulf Coast from Pascagoula Mississippi eastward to
Indian Pass Florida.

At 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane
Watch are in effect for the northern Gulf Coast from Grand Isle
Louisiana eastward to west of Pascagoula Mississippi...including
New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain.

At 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued
for the northern Gulf Coast from east of Indian Pass to Aucilla
river Florida.

[Aric Dunn]

center is approximately here...
24.25° N 86.55° W based the last recon and recent best track...

[attallaman]

Very good satellite IvanHater (the best contrast I have seen). Its still interesting to me that all of the deep convection is to the west of the eye, when the shear should be pushing it east. Is that the eye though, looks like it is being pushed out of the storm. hmmm

Thats not the eye to the east, thats a dry spot. You can see it being pushed due east. The eye is right in the middle of the CDO, the light purple colors in the middle. You can see it spinning if you look close.

All that precip I see in that image moving into SW/SC LA and SW MS from the GOM is that the remnants of the L from the BOC? Cool image BTW.

[cycloneye]

AT 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD TO
INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

AT 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM GRAND ISLE
LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO WEST OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING
NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

[tolakram]

For those of you talking local closings and such, I recommend you use this thread:

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=106995

Thanks

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 090253
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
900 PM CST SUN NOV 08 2009

...IDA HEADING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD....HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED
FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

AT 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI EASTWARD TO
INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

AT 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM GRAND ISLE
LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO WEST OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING
NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM EAST OF INDIAN PASS TO AUCILLA
RIVER FLORIDA.

AT 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED
ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR CUBA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

AT 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.7 WEST OR ABOUT 400 MILES...
645 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
ON MONDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IDA IS EXPECTED TO CROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND APPROACH THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IDA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...BUT IDA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

IDA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM
TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.

RAINS WILL BE INCREASING WELL IN ADVANCE OF IDA ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF COAST...BUT WILL BECOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER BY
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. TOTAL STORM ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TUESDAY FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST NORTHWARD
INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.

A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST NEAR AND TO THE
EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

...SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...23.7N 86.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1200 AM CST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300
AM CST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

[Ivanhater]

Ivanhater,

Is that face you have as your avatar, your reaction to this storm headed your way?

Lol yes. I was trying to get my 1 year old niece to look up and take a picture

[AdamFirst]

...SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...23.7N 86.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 14 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB

[vbhoutex]

The bridges have always been closed when sustained winds are over 45mph

humm, well I remember crossing the 3 mile bridge on the downside of Dennis in 2005 yeah, it was blowing more than that too

Yeh, but was it officially open? We did the same thing in the wake of Camille, but the bridge wasn't officially open.

[deltadog03]

Speed is up too 14 mph now.

[Aric Dunn]

Speed is up too 14 mph now.

thats important..

[tolakram]

[JTE50]

Apparently SANTA ROSA county schools will be open tomorrow, and a decision will be made tomorrow concerning possible closure Tuesday.

I would think that if you are a teacher and live on the Santa Rosa Island you would need a day to put your shutters up and secure it, given it's night time there right now. That's cutting it pretty close given the forecast track. I think Escambia Co is doing the smart thing by closing schools Mon & Tue. Better to keep the kids home than let them out at 12.

[dixiebreeze]

The 10 p.m. (EST) hurricane warning has moved east to Indian Pass in the Panhandle:

Indian Pass is located in Gulf County, between Apalachicola and Port St. Joe. It's an hour east of Panama City and a half-hour more from the trendy beaches of South Walton (Grayton Beach, Seaside, Watercolor and Rosemary Beach).