Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[double D]

The NWS out of Austin/San Antonio does not think much in the way of snowfall for Friday. They are only predicting .5 to 1 inch of snow for our area and 1-2 inches out in the Hill country. Oh well, I guess some is better than none.

[gboudx]

The NWS out of Austin/San Antonio does not think much in the way of snowfall for Friday. They are only predicting .5 to 1 inch of snow for our area and 1-2 inches out in the Hill country. Oh well, I guess some is better than none.

You never know. Not much was expected in DFW this morning and yet some areas got measurable snow. You really do need a weather rock to predict snow here in Texas.

[double D]

This is out of Amarillo, Tx

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

THE RETREATING ARCTIC AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO DIP SOUTH ONCE AGAIN
INTO THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
MODERATE ON MONDAY BUT IF THE COLD AIRMASS LOCKS IN ON SUNDAY...
FORECAST TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED. THE PATTERN BY 00Z MONDAY
CONTINUES A PATTERN LOOSELY RESEMBLING THE MCFARLAND SIGNATURE WITH
MORE COLD AIR LIKELY TO ARRIVE BY TUESDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
HEAD BY MIDWEEK AS THIS COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION. WITH THE
FORECAST TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW...LOW POPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

The 18z NAM has a 1060mb High coming down into the conus. I guess the Amarillo NWS is saying the GFS is wrong holding up the cold air and and is not buying into it's solution. I don't know about snow, but it's looks like it could be very cold next week.

[Big O]

At the moment, the trend has been to limit the amount of precipitation over west central and south central texas. If this trend continues, expect heaviest snows between Houston and College Station with a SW to NE orientation. Houston may end up with more snow then Austin or San Antonio if it is cold enough.

[HockeyTx82]

18z NAM takes all the precip out of west central Texas..

The NAM has been trending that way for the past couple of runs now. I wouldn't put a lot of stock in that it is the 18z run (plus it's the NAM). Although if the GFS starts trending that way then we might have to accept that we might not see as much snow as we once thought.

Yea, I noticed that as well.. The GFS has also to an extent as well.. I try not to put too much stock into the NAM outside of 48h, but its fun to look.. hahaha

The shortwave is still on the Texas/NM border so to me it doesn't matter if the NAM has precip or not, thats a pretty good moisture set up for us in most cases..

I really expected a more northern trend, and still kind of do, however, the cold weather is very impressive right now..

So would a trend more to the north mean more snowfall for the DFW area? I am a bit lost as to what storm you are talking about.

[wxgirl69]

Anyone wanna take a leap and predict how much snowfall we may see this coming Friday for South East Texas.

[double D]

The NWS out of Austin/San Antonio does not think much in the way of snowfall for Friday. They are only predicting .5 to 1 inch of snow for our area and 1-2 inches out in the Hill country. Oh well, I guess some is better than none.

You never know. Not much was expected in DFW this morning and yet some areas got measurable snow. You really do need a weather rock to predict snow here in Texas.

Thats true, I guess that don't want to put people in a panic either, although it will be interesting on what the schools decide to do Friday. I truly think this is a situation where we won't know how much snow if anything until the system is upon us.

[natlib]

Josh...check your PM. Thanks.

[srainhoutx]

I see Jeff lurking. Perhaps he will add some thoughts for the folks in SE TX.

[snow and ice]

Most of the 12z Ensemble members are in good agreement in that south and central Texas will get some frozen precipitation on Friday. How much remains to be seen. I'd be very surprised to see any frozen precipitation in Texas north of I-20.

12z Ensembles members:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRS_12z/f60.html

[Portastorm]

The NWS out of Austin/San Antonio does not think much in the way of snowfall for Friday. They are only predicting .5 to 1 inch of snow for our area and 1-2 inches out in the Hill country. Oh well, I guess some is better than none.

I think you saw the special weather statement they issued at 3:10 pm. Yeah, their forecast is totally based on the NAM12. They haven't issued their forecast discussion yet but the accumulation totals are exactly what the 12z NAM is showing. What I find questionable is their lack of "hey, this is what we're thinking right now but it could change" wording which I have seen from some other Texas WFOs. Then again, yesterday morning they had rain only for Friday so I'm not getting too worked up yet about how they're handling this event.

The trend over the last 12 hours has been to decrease precip amounts in our part of the state so let's see if that continues with the 0z runs later this evening.

I don't have my kicking shoes on just yet!

[iorange55]

Next week is starting to look really interesting with a lot of the NWS people to the north thinking the arctic air will come on down. If it does it looks there might be precip all around, so who knows what could happen, but it looks like the 18 gfs moved the cold further down which it's been doing, so maybe it's slowly starting to handle it better. If a high that big really does come down brrrr.



Also I wouldn't put too much stock in the 18 nam for friday till we see what the 00z is saying. It's funny how the NWS offices seem to sway so much with every single model. I thought we were the only ones who were supposed to do that?

[Duddy]

OK, I'm in Matagorda. Which thread should I be posting in for my area? There are multiple Texas/Snow threads happening and it's very confusing.

[snow and ice]

Big ticket item for the middle of next week. This has the potential to be a widespread southern plains winter storm as the GFS is probably underestimating the strength of the cold air.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _168.shtml

[Ntxw]

Still a ways away, but I'm liking the looks of it

[hb905]

Anyone, what is the weather looking like friday for the dallas area?!

[iorange55]

Anyone, what is the weather looking like friday for the dallas area?!

Cold, and perhaps a little snowy. Probably just some flurries doesn't look like there will be a lot of moisture this far north.

[Ntxw]

As of right now, possible flurries if you live north of I-20 around the immediate metro. The further south you are the more snow you could possibly see oh and chilly

[hb905]

well i hope it comes north to! it always seems to go around me in carrollton, this morning and went to the west and then to the south, and i guess friday its gonna go to the south also!

[Corey_n_clute]

I heard nothing but a cold rain for us in brazoria county..is that true?