Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Portastorm]

I really wouldn't pay too much attention to the 18z run of the GFS nor even the 6z run, especially this far out. Remember that those runs are based off of the 0z and 12z runs which encorporate the latest information from soundings, readings, etc.

As someone else pointed out ... when we get to 84 hours and less ... it might be worth it to watch the NAM and see how it compares to the GFS. I think this might be a close call for North Texas after all. I also think Oklahoma has a real nice shot at some wintry Christmas fun. And I think that stoopid Omega Block over Austin will preclude my snow chances!

[srainhoutx]

Keep an eye on any Coastal Trough development. Seems to be the pattern we have seen all of December, doesn't it.

[Ntxw]

I really wouldn't pay too much attention to the 18z run of the GFS nor even the 6z run, especially this far out. Remember that those runs are based off of the 0z and 12z runs which encorporate the latest information from soundings, readings, etc.

As someone else pointed out ... when we get to 84 hours and less ... it might be worth it to watch the NAM and see how it compares to the GFS. I think this might be a close call for North Texas after all. I also think Oklahoma has a real nice shot at some wintry Christmas fun. And I think that stoopid Omega Block over Austin will preclude my snow chances!

Don't lose faith Portastorm, anything can happen between now and then. Even the omega block doesn't stand a chance against a Christmas miracle . Also many times the gfs does underestimate the cold air.

[Portastorm]

Keep an eye on any Coastal Trough development. Seems to be the pattern we have seen all of December, doesn't it.

That has been the pattern. However, the 12z GFS run suggests a deeper airmass that plunges a lot further south than what we have seen so far. Methinks that would also shunt any Gulf moisture further south as well. That being said, this is the kind of discussion of synoptics where I know enough to get hurt.

I'm real curious to see what the 12z Euro and CMC show about this feature.

[Portastorm]

Hey Hoser, the 12z Canadian model (CMC) has a Christmas snow miracle for parts of Central and North/Northeast Texas. Pretty cool, eh?

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html

[attallaman]

Folks, we will just have to wait and see how things unfold. There still remains some uncertainty on where the Upper Low and the Surface Low track (will the two features phase and where) as well as any shortwave disturbances behind the front. HPC addresses this in Prelim Extended Disco. What we do know is a Major Winter Storm will develop in the Pre Christmas time frame and the subtle differences will need to be watched in the days ahead. Keep an eye on the 26th -28th time frame as well.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaap ... UMBLOOP=10

Ever since whatever model that was that showed the Disturbance no other model has really shown it in the 26-28th beginning to wonder about that.

Could the system you're talking about affect me here in Biloxi, Mississippi? Sending me some snow for Christmas or just much colder air? Today it's 52 degrees F under sunny skies, it's nice, much nicer than it was here on Friday when it was overcast, very windy and the temperatures never got out of the 40's that day. I hope you get the snow you're wishing for but if there's no chance of snow for me I'd rather have weather like I'm having today than more cold rain which I've have enough of thank you.

[srainhoutx]

attallaman, I would be more concerned about some severe weather at this point in MS. Regarding Storm Track and how far E the "cold air" makes it's progression, that remains to be seen IMHO. I suspect a lot of WFO's will want to get some RAOBS data and any requests from the CPC/HPC for 'off hour' ballon launches as the storm comes onshore in the Pacific NW. There will likely be a lot at stake, being right at Christmas time and the NWS is keenly aware of this.

[msstateguy83]

IF big KEYWORD *IF* things keep turning like they do i would even have to agree we could
be looking at the possibility of a significant snow event deeper into northern texas! this
could be a very,very interesting couple of days to see how this plays out, one thing is for sure
this has the possibilty of being one of the most interesting christmas holiday's weather wise
in our region in quite sometime!

edit: i would also advice anyone looking at the models we are getting within our window
that we have more tools at our disposal ie the nam,exc,exc

[msstateguy83]

very,very interesting my friends lol just hold on, hold tight as i said a couple
days ago it could be one hell of a ride taking shape lol the front should be
thru most of the area by this time frame...

[Portastorm]

Hey Hoser, the 12z Canadian model (CMC) has a Christmas snow miracle for parts of Central and North/Northeast Texas. Pretty cool, eh?

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html

Technical correction! Wxman57 pointed out to me on the local KHOU forum that I was reading this wrong. Remember, when you see moisture on these models it is for the period six hours previous. The moisture over central and north Texas will be there but the temps won't be cold enough, per this run. However, it does look like the temps would be cold enough in NE Texas for some white stuff ... again, per this CMC run. Sorry for any unmerited enthusiasm.

This is another one of those educational moments for all of us. Remember, when you see moisture presented on a model run at a certain time, it is for the period previous.

[attallaman]

very,very interesting my friends lol just hold on, hold tight as i said a couple
days ago it could be one hell of a ride taking shape lol the front should be
thru most of the area by this time frame...

That map is showing what? Different levels of precipitation? Just rain, no snow? If it was snow would it be colored white to purple?

[jinftl]

The color code key references precip amounts....not precip type.

Important to distinguish individual models from the consensus (along with other factors) that the NWS weaves into a forecast. Take the latest NWS DFW Discussion excerpt for the period around Christmas Day:

WITH UPPER LOW ROTATING NEWD ACROSS OK/SRN KS/WRN AR...
THIS CONTINUES TO GIVES NORTH TX MORE
DRY/SUBSIDENT WNW FLOW AT THE SFC...WHILE WSW FLOW ALOFT BRINGS IN
DRY/STABLE AIR FROM THE W TX BIG BEND COUNTRY AND FROM THE SIERRA
MADRE RANGE IN NRN MEXICO. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES OUT OF
WRAP-AROUND STRATUS NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY GOING INTO CHRISTMAS
EVE DAY PER WRAP-AROUND STRATUS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM TRIES TO PULL
AWAY SLOWLY NEWD AWAY FROM THE REGION. NO MENTION OF WINTER WEATHER
AT THIS TIME.

very,very interesting my friends lol just hold on, hold tight as i said a couple
days ago it could be one hell of a ride taking shape lol the front should be
thru most of the area by this time frame...

That map is showing what? Different levels of precipitation? Just rain, no snow? If it was snow would it be colored white to purple?

[msstateguy83]

its showing precip.. sry folks for you that dont know these maps
its not showing a breakdown ie, snow, sleet, frz rain or rain... its precip
the key is by this time the front should be well thru most of ok and n.tx
*which SHOULD BE WINTER PRECIP BY THIS TIME*** this is just my forecast
based off my knowledge, not endorsed by anyone or storm2k.org

[msstateguy83]

wrf THAT same model i showed the precip has the front lagging a bit and
temps still near 40 across portions of southern ok and far n.tx with the front
just pushin thru dfw @ that point SO if i based my judgement solely on that model
that would all be rain BUT alot of times, alot of the models are slow bringing the fronts in, they usually arrive before the models projected time, based on that i would say this could be all winter precip... stay tuned...

[Ntxw]

Hey Hoser, the 12z Canadian model (CMC) has a Christmas snow miracle for parts of Central and North/Northeast Texas. Pretty cool, eh?

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html

Technical correction! Wxman57 pointed out to me on the local KHOU forum that I was reading this wrong. Remember, when you see moisture on these models it is for the period six hours previous. The moisture over central and north Texas will be there but the temps won't be cold enough, per this run. However, it does look like the temps would be cold enough in NE Texas for some white stuff ... again, per this CMC run. Sorry for any unmerited enthusiasm.

This is another one of those educational moments for all of us. Remember, when you see moisture presented on a model run at a certain time, it is for the period previous.

I'm pretty sure the timing of the cold air and\or how cold it really is plays a factor as well. Models don't always pick this up correctly.

[msstateguy83]

gonna be very interesting see what norman, ft worth do this afternoon in wording
the area afternoon fd's

[attallaman]

gonna be very interesting see what norman, ft worth do this afternoon in wording
the area afternoon fd's

I just checked my local extended weather forecast on Accuweather.com and there's not any real cold air forecasted for here through New Years but it did show on the night of January 1st a forecasted low of 33 degrees F with steady rain, it also said the "real feel" temperature that night could be 13 degrees F so there must be going to be some wind here that night. With a low of 33 degrees F with steady rain could that steady rain turn into snow? Could the rain turn into sleet? That would make driving conditions bad here because we're not accustomed to driving on icy roads here, we're not use to it.

[Yankeegirl]

Hey, where are you going to find the weather forums on KHOU? Since their new web layout, I havent been able to find the forums!!!

[srainhoutx]

Hey, where are you going to find the weather forums on KHOU? Since their new web layout, I havent been able to find the forums!!!

viewtopic.php?f=22&t=107046

[Tireman4]

Go to khou.com
Then look for Weather and click it.
Then scroll down to you see Weather Forum ( yeah, it is small)
Click on it.