Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[gofrogs]

Sure,but next week looks alot better and the week after into january.

[gofrogs]

Whats the new gfs saying i cnat read it till its completly threw.

[msstateguy83]

just by looking at the new model runs it takes the 500 mb low further south again which could be an issue for areas even into southern ok, far nrn,nw tx...

edit: oun is also seeing this just posted in there forecast disc.. i have been closely looking over this event but overall in a broad stroke still spitting out winter precip
towards next wk into the 1st of january across a large portion of northern-central tx

[gofrogs]

A big winter storm is under 200 hours out for texas expesically austin northwards towards the dfw meteroplex, they have to start talking about it tommorow in the area afds.

[Ntxw]

A big winter storm is under 200 hours out for texas expesically austin northwards towards the dfw meteroplex, they have to start talking about it tommorow in the area afds.

12z gfs comes a bit warmer for that time frame, only one run though.

[Ntxw]

Is it just me or the CMC shows snow in Dallas for Thurs time frame? Maybe I'm reading it wrong. Anyone with better knowledge have any inputs?

[srainhoutx]

It is. The EC is running for those that have access via the pay site. Look for some more surprises.

[Ntxw]

Feel free to pass on the info to rest of us less fortunate to have access

[TrekkerCC]

A big winter storm is under 200 hours out for texas expesically austin northwards towards the dfw meteroplex, they have to start talking about it tommorow in the area afds.

Now, hold on for a second. The 00z GFS run hangs back the upper-level disturbance until Thursday and Friday of next week. There is still a lot of variability in the models 6-7 days out. If we take the 00z GFS run verbatim, then we would likely have snow flurries as the upper level disturbance passes over North Texas (QPF is very light). We probably won't have a good handle on the situation next week until this weekend, as the key players get sampled by the upper-level observation network (weather balloons) hopefully by then. Given what we know right now, it does not appear to be a huge winter storm event as of yet.

s it just me or the CMC shows snow in Dallas for Thurs time frame? Maybe I'm reading it wrong. Anyone with better knowledge have any inputs?Is it just me or the CMC shows snow in Dallas for Thurs time frame? Maybe I'm reading it wrong. Anyone with better knowledge have any inputs?

00z GFS run, at least, suggests some precipitation for North Texas on Thursday. It appears to be moisture on the backside of the Arkansas low, and it will be interesting to see how this develops tomorrow. It appears that it would fall as rain - both model soundings for GFS and NAM suggest that from 950mb to the surface will be above freezing. It appears that the CMC model is a bit colder than the GFS and NAM, and the CMC would suggest some light snow would be possible. However, it appears that the precipitation might start out as rain, and then transition to snow in the afternoon.

[somethingfunny]

By Thursday are you referring to Christmas Eve, or New Year's Eve?

If it's the former that will be the first mention in over a month of a model showing wintry precip for a time period less than a week into the future.

[Ntxw]

By Thursday are you referring to Christmas Eve, or New Year's Eve?

If it's the former that will be the first mention in over a month of a model showing wintry precip for a time period less than a week into the future.

Christmas Eve

[iorange55]

Well things are getting a little more interesting the GFS 06 is still tracking further south, and here is some of the Dallas NWS office morning discussion

AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND THE
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO ENTER OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME NUMEROUS AND THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EAST OF INTERSTATE 35. WILL CARRY
HIGHEST POPS TONIGHT FOR ALL OF THE REGION. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY
END FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS ANOTHER DRY SLOT WORKS IN BEHIND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...NOW MOVING IT ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS. THIS WILL ALLOW COLD AIR IN THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TO PENETRATE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF NORTH
TEXAS. AS WRAP AROUND PRECIP MOVES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES
ON THURSDAY MORNING...RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW IS POSSIBLE AND HAVE
INCLUDED THIS IN THE FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM
EASTLAND TO SHERMAN. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE
ABOVE FREEZING AT THE TIME...BUT IF THE IMMEDIATE NEAR SURFACE
LAYER COOLS JUST A FEW MORE DEGREES...A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. AM NOT EXPECTING IMPACTS AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER IF A
CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW OCCURS...SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRACK OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS TODAY.

if it moves further south maybe even Dallas will see something, maybe.


and then they hint towards next week

QUIET AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
NEARLY 48 HOURS APART ON THE TIMING OF THIS NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
AND HAVE SIDED WITH THE FASTER ECMWF /WHICH THE GFS ENSEMBLES ALSO
AGREE WITH/ FOR THIS FORECAST. GIVEN THE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
MODELS...WILL CARRY LOW POPS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY UNTIL
A BETTER CONSENSUS OCCURS. WITH COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACE...THIS
NEXT SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A WINTER WEATHER EVENT BUT
WILL NOT MENTION THIS IN THE ZONES.

[iorange55]

I think the low might go just enough south so we'll get into the wrap around moisture I think it's just all going to be focused on the cold front, and if it comes through earlier than expected then we might get some snow, if it comes in later then no. I'm not sure if this is a shallow airmass, but I know sometimes the GFS is always too slow for them, so who knows. Might get close I mean just look at Oklahoma City they had like a 30% chance of snow last night and didn't seem that confident since the models weren't showing that much for them. Now this morning they have an 80% chance of snow and blowing snow with 2-4 inches expected, and a winter storm watch, so we'll just have to see.

[Portastorm]

Is it just me or the CMC shows snow in Dallas for Thurs time frame? Maybe I'm reading it wrong. Anyone with better knowledge have any inputs?

The 0z CMC is showing some snow for northwestern parts of the Metroplex on Thursday. Remember that when you're looking at a computer model for a certain hour (i.e. 48 hrs out), you will see what the model thinks the temperatures will be at that time but the precip you see is the accumulated precip for the previous period. In the case of the CMC, since the 0z runs at every 12 hours, when you look at the CMC computer model at 48 hours, you're seeing what that model thinks will be accumulated precip between 36-48 hours.

Edit update: And the 0z GFS also shows a shot at SOME Christmas snow for places like Denton, Wichita Falls, far north Texas. Not much on the accumulation though.

[srainhoutx]

Good morning everyone and Merry Christmas. Portastorm, I don't know if you follow the NOGAPS or UKMET but you might want to take a peek at those as well. The Southern track of the Upper Low as well as some subtle changes in the secondary surface low track will like need to be watched carefully as the day unfolds. Also, we need to be mindful that a severe weather event may likely unfold and I would not want tht point to get lost in all the talk of wintry precip. Stay Tuned!

[msstateguy83]

Good Morning everyone, iam also here for the day to give my opinion on this unfolding, ever changing weather event
shaping up for late today - tomorrow evening. on the sw side of wichita falls we have had the temp drop a few more
degrees in the last few down to 41 with a north wind at about 17 mph.

edit: iam sure the nws is taking this into considerating to by looking @ the latest data but i would expect some
of the winter wx advisory area in sw ok and its also possible far nw tx, say near my area of wichita falls
to be upgraded to a storm warning as well as the storm watch over central ok to a warning for the possibility of
heavy accumulating snows. i will stand by my graphic i made the other day and will repost shortly, could see
some very heavy accums in a band up interstate 44 from lawton to the southwest side of oklahoma city
on the order of 6-10 inches. i would not be shocked to see some 4-5 inch amounts as far south as the
red river in sw ok, far nw tx.. this is all rapidly unfolding as we get a look @ more model runs this am
i will post more thoughts.

edit 2: also would add we have temps border line getting down close to the 32 degree mark, 36 over @
vernon about an hour west of me, so this could be VERY interesting as we go thru out the day and just
how quickly the temps drop and keep dropping behind this front, which would open the door to some of
this changing over earlyer then we had thought winter precip...

[srainhoutx]

Just an FYI. The 06Z RGEM now shows the Upper Low just SE of Dallas at hour 24. Also as I mentioned in the Southern Plains Topic, we'll need to keep an eye on the potent Upper Low diving S out of Alberta Canada. That is where all the cold air will be coming from to add to the mix

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaap ... UMBLOOP=10

[zaqxsw75050]

Hey srainhoutx, do you mind to post the link for RGEM? Thanks.

[srainhoutx]

Hey srainhoutx, do you mind to post the link for RGEM? Thanks.

Here you go zaqxsw75050...

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_fo ... dex_e.html

[zaqxsw75050]

Thanks a lot