Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[msstateguy83]

Thanks for the nice remarks =) mississippi state

[Ntxw]

my god i just looked over the whole nam run and it has slowed up, increased amounts
increased coverage... the all important gfs will be out soon we need to look for changes in it, then if this keeps up by 00z i would expect major forecast changes!

0z NAM and GFS is what would be interesting. New data from observations throughout the network should be included by then.

I've been watching this with interest more towards our area of TX but I was wondering if I was seeing the slow down and the increase in the possible coverage. Glad to know I wasn't imagining what I was seeing. Sometimes I think we all can get excited and read in things that aren't there on the models, but I try my best not too. Thus a reluctance to post my thoughts sometimes.
BTW, you kicked booty on the last call for the storm in N TX. Well done! Where are you studying meteorology?

We forget sometimes that models should be used as a tool and not something we base our forecasts on. A lot of times climatology and visual imagery can help us do the math ourselves ALONG with the models.

[gboudx]

Can someone explain the following 2 graphics posted on the DFW NWS? How can they show different amounts?

This one is for the WWA and shows small amounts.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/fwd/ ... _full1.gif

This one shows higher accumulation totals.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/fwd/ ... image2.gif

[WacoWx]

^^^your .gif on top is a newer (probably more accurate) graphic. the other has been cycling all day.

[gboudx]

I know it's been there all day, but the time on the graphic is 3:46pm for today. So they decided to keep it despite the inconsistency with the other graphic.

[WacoWx]

Being that the new gif had just been put up, I'm assuming the complete transition had not fully occured.

[TexasStorm]

What is the NAM doing with this storm??? The NAM appears to be slowing it down... I mean way down. I agree that the new GFS run should be interesting.

[CaptinCrunch]

Something not said here is that NTX is having one of the coldeset Decembers in 5 years. Thru the 27th the monthly avg temp is 43.2, thats -3.9 below the monthly norm. While precip has been almost -0.79 below norm we are looking at our 2nd possible winter storm of the month.

[natlib]

San Angelo backing off on this storm some. We were originally in a Winter Storm Watch, but that has been downgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory. Forecast says around 2 inches for tomorrow.

[Ntxw]

Something not said here is that NTX is having one of the coldeset Decembers in 5 years. Thru the 27th the monthly avg temp is 43.2, thats -3.9 below the monthly norm. While precip has been almost -0.79 below norm we are looking at our 2nd possible winter storm of the month.

Could be considered 3 as the system that brought snow to el paso early in the month also gave a dusting around DFW north and west.

[severe]

And here I was hoping y'all would get in on the act when we had our rare December 4th snowfall.
Now, our snowfall on the 4th is a long ago memory and all we're reading about is all the snow up north.

[Ntxw]

And here I was hoping y'all would get in on the act when we had our rare December 4th snowfall.
Now, our snowfall on the 4th is a long ago memory and all we're reading about is all the snow up north.

It's natural the further north you go, the more likely for snow\ice. Don't feel too bad the SJT is quite active and with cold air being predicted by the models I would bet winter weather is in your forecast again (gulf coast region) before the season is out.

[david30]

Been watching the boards for awhile now. Im glad for u folks in TX but its time to send some of that snow along HWY 82 into N MS. Each time you all have gotten snow it fizzles out before getting anywhere near here. The next storm which you would think would translate east is projected to bring us 35 and rain. So frustrating!

[Portastorm]

Been watching the boards for awhile now. Im glad for u folks in TX but its time to send some of that snow along HWY 82 into N MS. Each time you all have gotten snow it fizzles out before getting anywhere near here. The next storm which you would think would translate east is projected to bring us 35 and rain. So frustrating!

I hear you fella ... and it is not everyone in Texas who has enjoyed the winter weather. Those of us in the south central part of the state have received squat!

I'm trying to motivate myself for tomorrow's forecasted weather of rain and a high of 40 degrees. Oh boy, oh boy.

[gboudx]

Here's a video weather briefing from the DFW NWS. One of the slides shows the higher accumulations.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/media/fwd/Briefing/player.html

[david30]

What happened to all the projected forecasts of the bowling ball lows comin straight est across the whole south? Have yet to see one. Or if its on the coast and goes east its too far south for me to see anything other than clouds.

[Ntxw]

Latest CMC is considerably wetter and colder than previous runs. Note of interest, the CMC had a good track record on the previous sytem.

[msstateguy83]

changed my graphic to include a larger area of 6"+ amounts, also moved the 3-6" inch line further into oklahoma.. i think this is a pretty good forecast for what is going to take place. more updates later in the evening.

edit: would also just add i took the 6-8" out and just did 6"+ b/c i think anything over 6 inches with this system could be
pushing it I DO NOT at this time see us getting that high with amounts in a widespread area. there could be some isolated
totals say 7 or 8 inches but i would expect most max amounts to be around 6" or so on avg in that region.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[rkbjunior]

I just discovered this board recently and I must say I'm happy to have found it.

I have a question. If I am correct, the 6z GFS and the 18z GFS are both considered not the most accurate runs. Can the same be said of the NAM?

Portastorm I feel your pain everytime a chance of snow comes and goes and we get squat. I've lived in Central Texas for 26 years and had my hopes crushed many times. Maybe we'll get the ghost of January 1985 to pay us a visit this winter.

Oh and before I forget, kudos to msstateguy83 for sticking by his call and having it turn out the way it did.

[Ntxw]

I just discovered this board recently and I must say I'm happy to have found it.

I have a question. If I am correct, the 6z GFS and the 18z GFS are both considered not the most accurate runs. Can the same be said of the NAM?

Portastorm I feel your pain everytime a chance of snow comes and goes and we get squat. I've lived in Central Texas for 26 years and had my hopes crushed many times. Maybe we'll get the ghost of January 1985 to pay us a visit this winter.

Oh and before I forget, kudos to msstateguy83 for sticking by his call and having it turn out the way it did.

Not quite sure on that but I would think since the NAM has more room to work with on the shorter term as all of it's resources are focused with more immediate threats, wild swings between runs are not as crazy as the GFS. Example if you had to watch one or two kids the odds of them getting into danger are less as compared to you keeping an eye on a classroom full.