Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

gofrogs · #2921 Postby **gofrogs** » Thu Dec 31, 2009 10:26 am

Iam pumped for next week though

Tejas89 · #2922 Postby **Tejas89** » Thu Dec 31, 2009 10:43 am

How could are we talking for DFW late next week? Some of the language I'm seeing from NWS above says they aren't buying anything too extreme. Anything below 20 in the metroplex has been a rarity for many winters now so there's certainly good reason for hesitancy.

#2923 Postby **Ntxw** » Thu Dec 31, 2009 10:44 am

If it were to happen as the GFS says right now.

Portastorm wrote:The 0z GFS suggests surface temps in Dallas of around 10 degrees and upper teens for Austin by 12z Friday, Jan. 8th!

gofrogs · #2924 Postby **gofrogs** » Thu Dec 31, 2009 10:47 am

Yeah and therer is defiantley a major storm affecting at least ntx in that time frame via gfs. .60 qpf with temp dropping throught the twentys. it could still go either way still. but thats less than a week away. :eek:

#2925 Postby **txagwxman** » Thu Dec 31, 2009 11:05 am

Snow DFW today.

#2926 Postby **Ntxw** » Thu Dec 31, 2009 11:09 am

I'd have to say, the radars looks more impressive than I thought looking at the models earlier.

#2927 Postby **Portastorm** » Thu Dec 31, 2009 11:12 am

12z GFS running and it already looks colder by Tuesday morning than the 0z run looked.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_120l.gif

#2928 Postby **Portastorm** » Thu Dec 31, 2009 11:18 am

Do you see this 1052mb high in the Canadian Prairies? It was only a 1044mb on the 0z GFS run at the same time and it was still bottled up in Canada ... this one if clearly already on the move!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_144l.gif

And look at this 500mb flow! Classic trajectory over Montana, down the lee side of the Rockies, into Texas. Classic Arctic outbreak!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_144l.gif

iorange55 · #2929 Postby **iorange55** » Thu Dec 31, 2009 11:22 am

Lol this is pretty nutso if it happens. Good lord.

#2930 Postby **Ntxw** » Thu Dec 31, 2009 11:23 am

Portastorm wrote:Do you see this 1052mb high in the Canadian Prairies? It was only a 1044mb on the 0z GFS run at the same time and it was still bottled up in Canada ... this one if clearly already on the move!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_144l.gif

And look at this 500mb flow! Classic trajectory over Montana, down the lee side of the Rockies, into Texas. Classic Arctic outbreak!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_144l.gif

Keep that up over the weekend runs and I'll go out and get my ushanka ready!

iorange55 · #2931 Postby **iorange55** » Thu Dec 31, 2009 11:23 am

iorange55 wrote:Lol this is pretty nutso if it happens. Good lord.

Edit: I'm giggling over here I'm so excited.

Edit Number Two: Yes giggling.

Edit Number Three: I replied to my own quote on my first "edit"

#2932 Postby **Portastorm** » Thu Dec 31, 2009 11:27 am

This is insane ... look at that 850mb 0-degree isotherm halfway into Mexico!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_192l.gif

cctxhurricanewatcher · #2933 Postby **cctxhurricanewatcher** » Thu Dec 31, 2009 11:28 am

Portastorm wrote:Do you see this 1052mb high in the Canadian Prairies? It was only a 1044mb on the 0z GFS run at the same time and it was still bottled up in Canada ... this one if clearly already on the move!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_144l.gif

And look at this 500mb flow! Classic trajectory over Montana, down the lee side of the Rockies, into Texas. Classic Arctic outbreak!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_144l.gif

Wow! That might get those old timers from NWS Brownsville off the golf course at Rancho Viejo and back to the office to help the Newbies that haven't had to forecast a potential Arctic attack for the RGV.

iorange55 · #2934 Postby **iorange55** » Thu Dec 31, 2009 11:29 am

Portastorm wrote:This is insane ... look at that 850mb 0-degree isotherm halfway into Mexico!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_192l.gif

That is completely insane I'm in awe I'm trying not to get too excited cause I mean this is impossible right? Lol it's gotta be impossible.

cctxhurricanewatcher · #2935 Postby **cctxhurricanewatcher** » Thu Dec 31, 2009 11:30 am

Portastorm wrote:This is insane ... look at that 850mb 0-degree isotherm halfway into Mexico!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_192l.gif

Freeze in Tampico?

#2936 Postby **Portastorm** » Thu Dec 31, 2009 11:32 am

iorange55 wrote:
Portastorm wrote:This is insane ... look at that 850mb 0-degree isotherm halfway into Mexico!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_192l.gif

That is completely insane I'm in awe I'm trying not to get too excited cause I mean this is impossible right? Lol it's gotta be impossible.

Well, I hate to say it ... but this run and this Arctic outbreak is looking more and more like 1983 or 1989. I'm sure richtrav is lurking out there and will make his post now that I mention this ... about how every winter the GFS shows an outbreak like this and every winter it doesn't materialize. C'mon richtrav ... I know you're reading this! :lol:

iorange55 · #2937 Postby **iorange55** » Thu Dec 31, 2009 11:33 am

Portastorm wrote:
iorange55 wrote:
Portastorm wrote:This is insane ... look at that 850mb 0-degree isotherm halfway into Mexico!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_192l.gif

That is completely insane I'm in awe I'm trying not to get too excited cause I mean this is impossible right? Lol it's gotta be impossible.

Well, I hate to say it ... but this run and this Arctic outbreak is looking more and more like 1983 or 1989. I'm sure richtrav is lurking out there and will make his post now that I mention this ... about how every winter the GFS shows an outbreak like this and every winter it doesn't materialize. C'mon richtrav ... I know you're reading this!

Lol, but this is looking like the best chance in awhile am I correct? I don't remember anytime where ALL models agreed on this, and it being LESS than a week away.

#2938 Postby **Portastorm** » Thu Dec 31, 2009 11:35 am

I'm excited too bud ... but I don't think any of us should get too enthusiastic about this event until we see another day or two of model agreement. But certainly, it is unusual to see such consensus so far out. Plus ... the atmospheric signals (very negative Arctic Oscillation, negative North Atlantic Oscillation, etc.) support such a possibility.

Weatherdude20 · #2939 Postby **Weatherdude20** » Thu Dec 31, 2009 11:37 am

Portastorm wrote:I'm excited too bud ... but I don't think any of us should get too enthusiastic about this event until we see another day or two of model agreement. But certainly, it is unusual to see such consensus so far out. Plus ... the atmospheric signals (very negative Arctic Oscillation, negative North Atlantic Oscillation, etc.) support such a possibility.

True, haha =)

#2940 Postby **srainhoutx** » Thu Dec 31, 2009 11:37 am

Snow in Monterrey, MX. :wink:

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