Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Brent]

1,000th post!

Euro is trying to show something interesting for GA/Carolinas on Sunday, tries to close a low near the Atlantic coast and has a negative tilt trough. It's close to be a big snowstorm for the coast with snow showers back into AL/GA, but it's just one run. Something to watch though.

Nothing new on the Thursday threat so I'm going to get some zzzzzzzzz's.

[Dean4Storms]

Well this is one of those situations where in just a span of 10 miles could be all the difference in snow or rain. Will just have to wait and see how this sets up!

[attallaman]

I wasn't aware a winter weather advisory was issued for cold. It's very bizarre to me and makes no sense(not to mention being issued so early, ours are short fuse, usually only issued 12-24 hours before the event).

I really would be surprised to see snow on the coast. Wouldn't rule it out but looks doubtful.

Bah! Humbug! Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow. Like I said before I'd be happy to get an inch of the white stuff, enough accumulation on the ground to take some good pics. Cameras are ready just in case.

[gwynnsh]

I just found this site yesterday & decided to join today because of the useful information added by knowledgable parties. I live just morth of Mobile, Alabama in Saraland & it looks like we may be on the border of the rain/sleet/snow mix for Thursday. I agree with the others on here that a conservative forecast is usually indicative of the real possibility of snow but we shall just have to wait & see. Like I always say "I'll believe it when I see it." I guess we'll have a better idea by tomorrow. Any updates would be greatly appreciated.

[attallaman]

I just found this site yesterday & decided to join today because of the useful information added by knowledgable parties. I live just morth of Mobile, Alabama in Saraland & it looks like we may be on the border of the rain/sleet/snow mix for Thursday. I agree with the others on here that a conservative forecast is usually indicative of the real possibility of snow but we shall just have to wait & see. Like I always say "I'll believe it when I see it." I guess we'll have a better idea by tomorrow. Any updates would be greatly appreciated.

Just keep tuned to this station, you'll be getting updates throughout the day. This is a good source for information. Saraland, is that located near Semmes? Lots of plant nurseries in Semmes, I bet they're all concerned about this arctic blast.

[gwynnsh]

Yeah, Semmes is just a little West of Saraland & they do have lots of nurseries there but I'm sure they're on top of everything as far as protection goes. This seems like a great site for weather forecasts and predictions. I just want to see some snow & it appears that there is a good chance during the winter months this year. I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

[montgomeryben]

new here also.....local forecasters here in Montgomery, AL seem very hesitant to say whether we will see cold rain or snow. Most are saying a dusting of snow, but from what I've seen elsewhere, it seems like there could be more than that. Any thoughts?

Thanks

[rsvh2000]

Reporting here from central SC....looks like we will be too moisture starved for anything but flurries/light snow showers. We have been hammered by a gulf coast storm just about every week since Thanksgiving. Now we finally have the cold air in place, but minimal moisture....keeping hope alive though....

[Extremeweatherguy]

It looks like the drier trend from the models yesterday has ended. The latest 12z NAM is much wetter for the southeast USA later this week, showing a much better chance of accumulating snow reaching a larger area.

With high snow ratios expected, accumulations of several inches appear possible for northern Alabama, northern Georgia, the Tennessee Valley, on into the Carolinas. There might even be a few locations that reach the 6"+ category if this NAM run is correct (especially if we see 15:1 or greater snow ratios).

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_072l.gif

Areas cold enough for snow in the 0.01-0.10" area would see 0.1-1" with 10:1 ratios and 0.2-2" with 20:1 ratios. In the event of 30:1 ratios, 0.3-3" is possible.
Areas cold enough for snow in the 0.10-0.25" area would see 1-2.5" with 10:1 ratios and 2-5" with 20:1 ratios. In the event of 30:1 ratios, 3.0-7.5" is possible.
Areas cold enough for snow in the 0.25-0.50" area would see 2.5-5" with 10:1 ratios and 5-10" with 20:1 ratios. In the event of 30:1 ratios, 7.5-15" is possible.

[montgomeryben]

well that's very encouraging

[timNms]

NWS Jackson, MS for my area:

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
THEN A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND LIGHT SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT AS
COLD. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
THURSDAY
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. RAIN DURING THE DAY.
SNOW LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 40. SOUTH
WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible (I'm assuming this is rain)
THURSDAY NIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS 15 TO 20.

[rsvh2000]

Posted this morning by a met (Scott Ryan) in Columbia SC (I-20 being the stretch of I-20 that runs through SC). Still looking dry for us by this standard. Anxious to see the model runs progress

Chance of snow for Thursday night.......


North of I-20 South of I-20
Flurries 80% 50%
A Dusting 40% 20%
1/2" of Snow 20% 5%
1" of Snow 5% <1%
3"+ of Snow <1% 0%

[Brent]

It looks like the drier trend from the models yesterday has ended. The latest 12z NAM is much wetter for the southeast USA later this week, showing a much better chance of accumulating snow reaching a larger area.

With high snow ratios expected, accumulations of several inches appear possible for northern Alabama, northern Georgia, the Tennessee Valley, on into the Carolinas. There might even be a few locations that reach the 6"+ category if this NAM run is correct (especially if we see 15:1 or greater snow ratios).

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_072l.gif

Areas cold enough for snow in the 0.01-0.10" area would see 0.1-1" with 10:1 ratios and 0.2-2" with 20:1 ratios. In the event of 30:1 ratios, 0.3-3" is possible.
Areas cold enough for snow in the 0.10-0.25" area would see 1-2.5" with 10:1 ratios and 2-5" with 20:1 ratios. In the event of 30:1 ratios, 3.0-7.5" is possible.
Areas cold enough for snow in the 0.25-0.50" area would see 2.5-5" with 10:1 ratios and 5-10" with 20:1 ratios. In the event of 30:1 ratios, 7.5-15" is possible.

I was just noticing that. Nice to wake up to wetter models.

Thursday...Snow likely. Highs in the mid 30s. Southwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the west 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of snow 70 percent.

Thursday Night...Snow likely in the evening. Lows around 15. Chance of snow 60 percent. Lowest wind chill readings 2 below to 12 above zero after midnight.

[attallaman]

Yeah, Semmes is just a little West of Saraland & they do have lots of nurseries there but I'm sure they're on top of everything as far as protection goes. This seems like a great site for weather forecasts and predictions. I just want to see some snow & it appears that there is a good chance during the winter months this year. I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

This is an excellent site for monitoring the tropics but having gone through Katrina I've had my share of tropical weather but it is neat to come here during the winter when something is going on winter weather wise and discuss it.

[Brent]

new here also.....local forecasters here in Montgomery, AL seem very hesitant to say whether we will see cold rain or snow. Most are saying a dusting of snow, but from what I've seen elsewhere, it seems like there could be more than that. Any thoughts?

Thanks

Montgomery is in a very tough spot. The heavier moisture will be down there but it looks like warm air gets involved(the downside to more moisture). ***IF*** it's cold enough Montgomery could get more snow than anyone in MS/AL/GA, but the models show at least some rain or sleet mixed in. Something to watch. It could be an all or nothing scenario, either all rain, or a good bit of snow.

A lot of time for it to change, too early to tell. A difference of 20-30 miles could mean huge changes.

[jhpigott]

Want to talk about real deep south snow threat - this was posted by turtlehurricane over at the Eastern Weather forums (and I believe he posts over here as well from time to time) -

"6z GFS is showing an even more interesting precip event for SE FL. At FLL rain starts late in the afternoon on Friday, begins to switch over to a wintry mix Saturday evening, and becomes snow after midnight.

The funny thing is this event has gone from a north Florida only event to a peninsula only event on the GFS. It starts getting pretty good at the latitude of Tampa. Soundings show snow for them from Friday evening to noon Saturday.

I'm guessing it has alot to do with the cold air catching up to precip further south. Still a long shot, but interesting stuff."

I couldn't read one of the synoptic maps to save my life. I'm just an interested onlooker. But can anyone verify what turtlehurricane is saying the 6z GFS is showing for the end of this week.

[attallaman]

NWS Jackson, MS for my area:

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
THEN A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN AND LIGHT SLEET AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT AS
COLD. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
THURSDAY
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING. RAIN DURING THE DAY.
SNOW LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDY. HIGHS AROUND 40. SOUTH
WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible (I'm assuming this is rain)
THURSDAY NIGHT
PARTLY CLOUDY. COLDER. LOWS 15 TO 20.

I just got off the phone with my uncle in Magee who told me whatever station he watches there in Magee was forecasting a low of 11F on Sunday, no mention of any snow in the forecast. He has this saying, when it gets that cold it's cold enough to freeze a lizard's tail off. He said that line started years ago in Attalla county. Still cold here under sunny skies it's currently 27 degrees with some wind with a wind chill temperature according to Accuweather of 22 degrees and baby that's cold for Biloxi but not as cold as the 13 degrees which is forecasted for Friday. I've had my faucets running all night.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Want to talk about real deep south snow threat - this was posted by turtlehurricane over at the Eastern Weather forums (and I believe he posts over here as well from time to time) -

"6z GFS is showing an even more interesting precip event for SE FL. At FLL rain starts late in the afternoon on Friday, begins to switch over to a wintry mix Saturday evening, and becomes snow after midnight.

The funny thing is this event has gone from a north Florida only event to a peninsula only event on the GFS. It starts getting pretty good at the latitude of Tampa. Soundings show snow for them from Friday evening to noon Saturday.

I'm guessing it has alot to do with the cold air catching up to precip further south. Still a long shot, but interesting stuff."

I couldn't read one of the synoptic maps to save my life. I'm just an interested onlooker. But can anyone verify what turtlehurricane is saying the 6z GFS is showing for the end of this week.

I don't know. It looks like a very slight chance, at best, that any kind of wintry precipitation reaches areas south of the Florida panhandle. Looking at the 6z GFS, it appears as though the upper levels become cold enough for sleet/snow after the precipitation has pushed south, meaning just rain for most of the Florida peninsula. Surface temperatures are marginal at times, but without the cold upper levels you really can't hope for much other than liquid precipitation. I wouldn't be surprised to hear about a sleet pellet or snowflake mixing in somewhere in north or even central Florida before all the precipitation moves out, but at this point it is not looking like any kind of widespread threat south of I-20. I guess its worth keeping an eye on though. A faster arrival of the cold air or a slower exit of the precipitation could yield a better chance of seeing something interesting. Based on climatology though, I wouldn't get my hopes up too high though...especially south of Tampa and Orlando.

[SunnyThoughts]

10 am ...just to the East of Pensacola...26 degrees brrrrr.

Still showing a forecast for 30% SNOW Thursday night. Everybody stay warm. ( I promise never to complain about highs in the 40's along the gulfcoast again.)

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 12z GFS is not as wet as the 12z NAM was for the southeast USA, but it is still looking much better than it did yesterday...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_072l.gif

Based on this run, a dusting to 1-2" looks possible for much of the northern half of the southeast USA, with slightly higher amounts possible in a few areas (including northern Alabama and Mississippi, Tennessee and the NC mountains).