Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Brent]

The 12z GFS is not as wet as the 12z NAM was for the southeast USA, but it is still looking much better than it did yesterday...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 6_072l.gif

Based on this run, a dusting to 2" looks possible for much of the northern half of the southeast USA, with slightly higher amounts possible in a few areas (northern Alabama and Mississippi, Tennessee and the NC mountains).

That's pretty much what I've been thinking and don't see any reason to change. Definitely liking that the models are wetter than they were.

Still think the real story is gonna be the brutal cold behind the storm, I'm thinking some places may approach zero north of here if they have any kind of snow cover, and we'll probably be around 5-10 with dangerous sub-zero wind chills especially Friday into early Saturday. Likely will struggle to see the mid 20's both Friday and Saturday(and Saturday could actually be colder during the day)

[Cristina]

I don't know how to read the models, can someone pls tell me if they see snow for Canton, GA, is about 42 miles north of Atlanta? I appreciate your help! Thanks!

[RNGR]

models also look a tad warmer along the north gulf coast. a weaker low might cause warm air to move further inland too because the cold air wont be pulled so close to the backside of the low on the NW side.

[RNGR]

I don't know how to read the models, can someone pls tell me if they see snow for Canton, GA, is about 42 miles north of Atlanta? I appreciate your help! Thanks!

1-4 inches depending on the rain to snow ratio and individual bands of snow

[Brent]

I don't know how to read the models, can someone pls tell me if they see snow for Canton, GA, is about 42 miles north of Atlanta? I appreciate your help! Thanks!

Very likely you'll see some snow. How much, well, I dunno. I would think 1-2 inches is a good bet, isolated spots may get more but that'll be tough to pin down til it's actually snowing. You are helped by being higher in elevation.

[Cristina]

Thank you for your replies... my concern is that we're originally from Miami and now live in GA in a very mountainous subdivision... I'm concerned if it snows, and since the temps have been so low, below freezing, the roads will ice and won't be able to get out of our subdivision...

[Brent]

Thank you for your replies... my concern is that we're originally from Miami and now live in GA in a very mountainous subdivision... I'm concerned if it snows, and since the temps have been so slow, below freezing, the roads will ice and won't be able to get out of our subdivision...

That is a big concern I have even outside the mountains. I'm expecting a lot of travel problems Thursday Night and for the morning commute Friday even way down into South MS/AL/GA. Even if it doesn't snow down there, the liquid on the roads will refreeze as temps plunge Thursday Night. We got pretty lucky on March 1st 2009 in that the roads largely stayed wet(and it also happened on Sunday which really cut down on the amount of people out).

Also, temperatures will not reach freezing at all Friday/Saturday/maybe Sunday in the mountains, so the roads could remain a mess(especially secondary roads that are untreated) and bridges/overpasses all the way til potentially Monday even(through the morning commute). We should finally get above freezing everywhere Monday Afternoon but that is a VERY long duration event for us in the south.

[RNGR]

Thank you for your replies... my concern is that we're originally from Miami and now live in GA in a very mountainous subdivision... I'm concerned if it snows, and since the temps have been so low, below freezing, the roads will ice and won't be able to get out of our subdivision...

thats funny, I grew up in Kendall FL. I was there for Andrew, Wilma and many other storms. now I live near Stone Mountain I think ice will be an issue for about 3 or 4 days.

[RNGR]

From Jackson MS discussion update

.UPDATE...

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR TODAY AND THE HARD FREEZE WARNING IS IN
GOOD SHAPE THROUGH TONIGHT. AS FOR THE POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER EVENT
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A
LITTLE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS TREND IS BEING WATCHED CLOSELY. SNOW IS
LOOKING LESS LIKELY GIVEN EVEN WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOWING
UP IN THE NEW GUIDANCE. WILL WAIT UNTIL AFTN FORECAST PACKAGE TO MAKE
ANY GRID CHANGES FOR WINTER WX. UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION IS BELOW.
/EC/

[Cristina]

Thank you for your replies... my concern is that we're originally from Miami and now live in GA in a very mountainous subdivision... I'm concerned if it snows, and since the temps have been so low, below freezing, the roads will ice and won't be able to get out of our subdivision...

thats funny, I grew up in Kendall FL. I was there for Andrew, Wilma and many other storms. now I live near Stone Mountain I think ice will be an issue for about 3 or 4 days.

What a coincidence, I lived in Kendall also, and moved here a couple of yrs ago. I was there for Andrew and all the other hurricanes that his us.. I moved to GA to get away from all the storms, now we have to deal with Tornados and Snow... By the way, do you know Jim Leonard, from S. FL., he's a storm chaser?

[SunnyThoughts]

Finally made 30 degrees here at 11:15 am in Santa Rosa county Fla. I don't think we'll make the mid 40's like the forecast calls for. We shall see.

[RNGR]

Thank you for your replies... my concern is that we're originally from Miami and now live in GA in a very mountainous subdivision... I'm concerned if it snows, and since the temps have been so low, below freezing, the roads will ice and won't be able to get out of our subdivision...

thats funny, I grew up in Kendall FL. I was there for Andrew, Wilma and many other storms. now I live near Stone Mountain I think ice will be an issue for about 3 or 4 days.

What a coincidence, I lived in Kendall also, and moved here a couple of yrs ago. I was there for Andrew and all the other hurricanes that his us.. I moved to GA to get away from all the storms, now we have to deal with Tornados and Snow... By the way, do you know Jim Leonard, from S. FL., he's a storm chaser?

I don't know him personally but I know OF him. Hes taken some of the most famous storm footage on earth!

[RNGR]

From Greenville-Spartanburg SC discussion:

MODEL SOUNDINGS AT KTRI AND KTNB INDICATE A VERY COLD MOIST LAYER IN
THE SFC-4KFT LAYER DURING THROUGH SUN MORNING...WITH THE MEAN WIND
CENTERED RIGHT ON 315 DEGREES AVERAGING 20 KTS THROUGH THE LAYER.
THIS WILL PROVIDE VERY GOOD LIFT AND WITH THE ARCTIC AIR EFFICIENTLY
PRODUCING DENDRITIC FLAKES...SNOW RATIOS WILL BE AROUND 30:1 IF NOT
HIGHER. ALSO...THE H85 PLAN VIEWS INDICATE SOME SMALL MEASURE OF
GLAKES ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE. THEREFORE...THE NEW 36-48 HR
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE BTW 3-6 INCHES ALONG THE TN BORDER
COUNTIES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN MOST NW
FACING SLOPES.

Interesting. Could be quite a bit more snow on the ground than most are expecting.

[Cristina]

What a coincidence, I lived in Kendall also, and moved here a couple of yrs ago. I was there for Andrew and all the other hurricanes that his us.. I moved to GA to get away from all the storms, now we have to deal with Tornados and Snow... By the way, do you know Jim Leonard, from S. FL., he's a storm chaser?

I don't know him personally but I know OF him. Hes taken some of the most famous storm footage on earth![/quote]

My husband grew up with him and he's our daughter's God Father. Please keep us updated with the conditions here in north GA, we're terribly nervous and want to be as ready as possible. Thank you for all the information you have provided!

[rsvh2000]

From Greenville-Spartanburg SC discussion:

MODEL SOUNDINGS AT KTRI AND KTNB INDICATE A VERY COLD MOIST LAYER IN
THE SFC-4KFT LAYER DURING THROUGH SUN MORNING...WITH THE MEAN WIND
CENTERED RIGHT ON 315 DEGREES AVERAGING 20 KTS THROUGH THE LAYER.
THIS WILL PROVIDE VERY GOOD LIFT AND WITH THE ARCTIC AIR EFFICIENTLY
PRODUCING DENDRITIC FLAKES...SNOW RATIOS WILL BE AROUND 30:1 IF NOT
HIGHER. ALSO...THE H85 PLAN VIEWS INDICATE SOME SMALL MEASURE OF
GLAKES ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE. THEREFORE...THE NEW 36-48 HR
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE BTW 3-6 INCHES ALONG THE TN BORDER
COUNTIES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN MOST NW
FACING SLOPES.

Interesting. Could be quite a bit more snow on the ground than most are expecting.

Let's hope so. However, Greenville/Spartanburg also forecasts for the southern NC mountains and this is the area they are referring to in this excerpt, where snow is more common. Hoping for some of that to slide south. Right now the lift does not appear to be significant except for the mountains....hopefully this will be indicative of a shift in the forecast......

[SunnyThoughts]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1055 AM CST TUE JAN 5 2010



TEMPERATURES MODERATE SOMEWHAT ON WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN UNSEASONABLY
COLD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WITH COLD
AIR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BRING A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...LIGHT SLEET AND SNOW TO THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH LITTLE ACCUMULATION OF SNOW
OR SLEET IS EXPECTED...THIS MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
FOR MOTORISTS...ESPECIALLY OVER ELEVATED ROADWAYS SUCH AS BRIDGES.
STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.
DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES EAST OF THE AREA.

[RNGR]

From Greenville-Spartanburg SC discussion:

MODEL SOUNDINGS AT KTRI AND KTNB INDICATE A VERY COLD MOIST LAYER IN
THE SFC-4KFT LAYER DURING THROUGH SUN MORNING...WITH THE MEAN WIND
CENTERED RIGHT ON 315 DEGREES AVERAGING 20 KTS THROUGH THE LAYER.
THIS WILL PROVIDE VERY GOOD LIFT AND WITH THE ARCTIC AIR EFFICIENTLY
PRODUCING DENDRITIC FLAKES...SNOW RATIOS WILL BE AROUND 30:1 IF NOT
HIGHER. ALSO...THE H85 PLAN VIEWS INDICATE SOME SMALL MEASURE OF
GLAKES ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE. THEREFORE...THE NEW 36-48 HR
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE BTW 3-6 INCHES ALONG THE TN BORDER
COUNTIES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN MOST NW
FACING SLOPES.

Interesting. Could be quite a bit more snow on the ground than most are expecting.

Let's hope so. However, Greenville/Spartanburg also forecasts for the southern NC mountains and this is the area they are referring to in this excerpt, where snow is more common. Hoping for some of that to slide south. Right now the lift does not appear to be significant except for the mountains....hopefully this will be indicative of a shift in the forecast......

True, but if the ratio is 30:1 in the mountains, it may be like 15:1 in north AL & GA. I think this system has the chance to be alot more significant. i still think 1-3 maybe 4 inches in isolated spots is entirely possible.

[rsvh2000]

From Greenville-Spartanburg SC discussion:

MODEL SOUNDINGS AT KTRI AND KTNB INDICATE A VERY COLD MOIST LAYER IN
THE SFC-4KFT LAYER DURING THROUGH SUN MORNING...WITH THE MEAN WIND
CENTERED RIGHT ON 315 DEGREES AVERAGING 20 KTS THROUGH THE LAYER.
THIS WILL PROVIDE VERY GOOD LIFT AND WITH THE ARCTIC AIR EFFICIENTLY
PRODUCING DENDRITIC FLAKES...SNOW RATIOS WILL BE AROUND 30:1 IF NOT
HIGHER. ALSO...THE H85 PLAN VIEWS INDICATE SOME SMALL MEASURE OF
GLAKES ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE. THEREFORE...THE NEW 36-48 HR
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE BTW 3-6 INCHES ALONG THE TN BORDER
COUNTIES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN MOST NW
FACING SLOPES.

Interesting. Could be quite a bit more snow on the ground than most are expecting.

Let's hope so. However, Greenville/Spartanburg also forecasts for the southern NC mountains and this is the area they are referring to in this excerpt, where snow is more common. Hoping for some of that to slide south. Right now the lift does not appear to be significant except for the mountains....hopefully this will be indicative of a shift in the forecast......

True, but if the ratio is 30:1 in the mountains, it may be like 15:1 in north AL & GA. I think this system has the chance to be alot more significant. i still think 1-3 maybe 4 inches in isolated spots is entirely possible.

Good point and I agree. Hopefully this will be a sign of a wetter scenario!!

[RNGR]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
149 PM EST TUE JAN 5 2010

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>073-078-079-
061100-
DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-
CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-
CHEROKEE-FORSYTH-HALL-BANKS-JACKSON-MADISON-POLK-PAULDING-COBB-
NORTH FULTON-GWINNETT-BARROW-CLARKE-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-WILKES-
HARALSON-CARROLL-DOUGLAS-SOUTH FULTON-DEKALB-ROCKDALE-WALTON-
NEWTON-MORGAN-GREENE-TALIAFERRO-HEARD-COWETA-FAYETTE-CLAYTON-
SPALDING-HENRY-BUTTS-JASPER-PUTNAM-HANCOCK-WARREN-TROUP-
MERIWETHER-PIKE-UPSON-LAMAR-MONROE-JONES-BALDWIN-HARRIS-TALBOT-
149 PM EST TUE JAN 5 2010

...WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH GEORGIA ON THURSDAY USHERING
ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR INTO GEORGIA. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...AND MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES. MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SPREAD ACROSS GEORGIA ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WITH COLD AIR REMAINING IN PLACE...
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLEET...
AND FREEZING RAIN. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA...IN
THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW NORTH OF A LINE FROM LA GRANGE TO
FORSYTH TO WARRENTON. SOUTH OF THIS LINE A MIXTURE OF
SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD FALL PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF RAIN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
COLUMBUS TO MACON TO LOUISVILLE.

ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF A LA GRANGE
TO FORSYTH TO WARRENTON LINE. PRELIMINARY INDICATIONS ARE THAT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH
OF THIS LINE...WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS IS NOT EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE EXACT PATH
OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS GEORGIA WILL AFFECT THE EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. IF THE LOW REMAINS NEAR THE GULF COAST...LIGHTER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED. IF THE LOW TRACKS INLAND ACROSS
SOUTHERN GEORGIA... HEAVIER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE POSSIBLE. THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AND END ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...ALTHOUGH FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

RESIDENTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR THE
DEVELOPING WINTER WEATHER SITUATION AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS IF A WINTER STORM WATCH OR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS ISSUED.

[vbhoutex]

A little ot, but we have friends driving down form Wisconsin to here in Houston for a wedding this weekend. Once they leave here they are heading to Gulf Shores for the rest of the winter. I told them to leave the cold at home, but I don't think they listened. Complaining a few days ago about the single digits up there and now they are still going to be in freezing temps here inthe South. Shows how pervasive this cold wave is.