Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[southerngale]

wxman57... I believe the 2nd one is the 18z, correct? If so, does it show the front coming in a little sooner as well? It seems to, but not by much, if I'm reading it correctly.

I know that you've said you don't think there will be any snow for the Houston area. Do you think we have the same grim chances over here or even a little better chance? I know that it depends on if the precip sticks around a bit after it's cold enough, but I'm not sure if the precip will be moving through here slower than the front will. I think it will all get to you guys first over there. NWS LCH has my area with a 40% chance of rain/flurries for Thursday, which I know isn't much. They have flirted back and forth between slight chance of snow, rain, and flurries. Anyway, just wondering what your thoughts are, even though they've been quite depressing all day. I respect your opinion, though, whether I like it or not.

[txagwxman]

wxman57... I believe the 2nd one is the 18z, correct? If so, does it show the front coming in a little sooner as well? It seems to, but not by much, if I'm reading it correctly.

I know that you've said you don't think there will be any snow for the Houston area. Do you think we have the same grim chances over here or even a little better chance? I know that it depends on if the precip sticks around a bit after it's cold enough, but I'm not sure if the precip will be moving through here slower than the front will. I think it will all get to you guys first over there. NWS LCH has my area with a 40% chance of rain/flurries for Thursday, which I know isn't much. They have flirted back and forth between slight chance of snow, rain, and flurries. Anyway, just wondering what your thoughts are, even though they've been quite depressing all day. I respect your opinion, though, whether I like it or not.

I don't see snow Thursday, maybe we squeeze an ice pellet if the Arctic front is just a hair faster. But rain gone by noon. For Friday, only model that has anything is the GEM, ECMWF/GFS are too dry in the lower-levels of the atmosphere for precipitation. There were a few GEM ensembles member similar to the GEM, but I can't find one GFS ensemble member that has precipitation on Friday...going be cold, enjoy.

[wxman57]

wxman57... I believe the 2nd one is the 18z, correct? If so, does it show the front coming in a little sooner as well? It seems to, but not by much, if I'm reading it correctly.

I know that you've said you don't think there will be any snow for the Houston area. Do you think we have the same grim chances over here or even a little better chance? I know that it depends on if the precip sticks around a bit after it's cold enough, but I'm not sure if the precip will be moving through here slower than the front will. I think it will all get to you guys first over there. NWS LCH has my area with a 40% chance of rain/flurries for Thursday, which I know isn't much. They have flirted back and forth between slight chance of snow, rain, and flurries. Anyway, just wondering what your thoughts are, even though they've been quite depressing all day. I respect your opinion, though, whether I like it or not.

I don't see snow Thursday, maybe we squeeze an ice pellet if the Arctic front is just a hair faster. But rain gone by noon. For Friday, only model that has anything is the GEM, ECMWF/GFS are too dry in the lower-levels of the atmosphere for precipitation. There were a few GEM ensembles member similar to the GEM, but I can't find one GFS ensemble member that has precipitation on Friday...going be cold, enjoy.

Agreed. Temps over Beaumont/Port Arthur will be even warmer than over Houston. Temps in the 40s up to nearly 10,000 ft Thursday through early afternoon. Just a very thin layer of sub-freezing temps around 2000 ft by 3pm Thursday, but the precip should be over by then. This is NOT a sleet/snow event for SE TX, it's a cold, dry event.

[greg_kfdm_tv]

wxman57... I believe the 2nd one is the 18z, correct? If so, does it show the front coming in a little sooner as well? It seems to, but not by much, if I'm reading it correctly.

I know that you've said you don't think there will be any snow for the Houston area. Do you think we have the same grim chances over here or even a little better chance? I know that it depends on if the precip sticks around a bit after it's cold enough, but I'm not sure if the precip will be moving through here slower than the front will. I think it will all get to you guys first over there. NWS LCH has my area with a 40% chance of rain/flurries for Thursday, which I know isn't much. They have flirted back and forth between slight chance of snow, rain, and flurries. Anyway, just wondering what your thoughts are, even though they've been quite depressing all day. I respect your opinion, though, whether I like it or not.

As the soup Nazi on Seinfeld might say...."No snow for you!"

[serenata09]

What are the chances of winter precip. looking like for DFW/North Texas? At this point my area shows a 30% chance of freezing drizzle.

[hurrican19]

When you click on your "city" on the NWS web page, I have found it much more accurate to look at the Zone Area Forecast than the "Quickclick" forecast.

[southerngale]

wxman57... I believe the 2nd one is the 18z, correct? If so, does it show the front coming in a little sooner as well? It seems to, but not by much, if I'm reading it correctly.

I know that you've said you don't think there will be any snow for the Houston area. Do you think we have the same grim chances over here or even a little better chance? I know that it depends on if the precip sticks around a bit after it's cold enough, but I'm not sure if the precip will be moving through here slower than the front will. I think it will all get to you guys first over there. NWS LCH has my area with a 40% chance of rain/flurries for Thursday, which I know isn't much. They have flirted back and forth between slight chance of snow, rain, and flurries. Anyway, just wondering what your thoughts are, even though they've been quite depressing all day. I respect your opinion, though, whether I like it or not.

I don't see snow Thursday, maybe we squeeze an ice pellet if the Arctic front is just a hair faster. But rain gone by noon. For Friday, only model that has anything is the GEM, ECMWF/GFS are too dry in the lower-levels of the atmosphere for precipitation. There were a few GEM ensembles member similar to the GEM, but I can't find one GFS ensemble member that has precipitation on Friday...going be cold, enjoy.

Agreed. Temps over Beaumont/Port Arthur will be even warmer than over Houston. Temps in the 40s up to nearly 10,000 ft Thursday through early afternoon. Just a very thin layer of sub-freezing temps around 2000 ft by 3pm Thursday, but the precip should be over by then. This is NOT a sleet/snow event for SE TX, it's a cold, dry event.

Thanks for the replies, guys. I think I just lost that last glimmer of hope, unless something drastically changes. I guess it's good not to have false hope, though. lol
Do you mean temps will be warmer over here when the precip falls or in the upper levels, or just overall? Just wondering as usually, my temps are quite a bit colder than Houston. I'm not sure about Port Arthur, though. I live just west of Beaumont, off of Hwy. 105.

[southerngale]

wxman57... I believe the 2nd one is the 18z, correct? If so, does it show the front coming in a little sooner as well? It seems to, but not by much, if I'm reading it correctly.

I know that you've said you don't think there will be any snow for the Houston area. Do you think we have the same grim chances over here or even a little better chance? I know that it depends on if the precip sticks around a bit after it's cold enough, but I'm not sure if the precip will be moving through here slower than the front will. I think it will all get to you guys first over there. NWS LCH has my area with a 40% chance of rain/flurries for Thursday, which I know isn't much. They have flirted back and forth between slight chance of snow, rain, and flurries. Anyway, just wondering what your thoughts are, even though they've been quite depressing all day. I respect your opinion, though, whether I like it or not.

As the soup Nazi on Seinfeld might say...."No snow for you!"

Dang that Nazi! He sure is a mean one.

[greg_kfdm_tv]

wxman57... I believe the 2nd one is the 18z, correct? If so, does it show the front coming in a little sooner as well? It seems to, but not by much, if I'm reading it correctly.

I know that you've said you don't think there will be any snow for the Houston area. Do you think we have the same grim chances over here or even a little better chance? I know that it depends on if the precip sticks around a bit after it's cold enough, but I'm not sure if the precip will be moving through here slower than the front will. I think it will all get to you guys first over there. NWS LCH has my area with a 40% chance of rain/flurries for Thursday, which I know isn't much. They have flirted back and forth between slight chance of snow, rain, and flurries. Anyway, just wondering what your thoughts are, even though they've been quite depressing all day. I respect your opinion, though, whether I like it or not.

As the soup Nazi on Seinfeld might say...."No snow for you!"

Dang that Nazi! He sure is a mean one.

It is a waste of cold air without the moisture. By the way, in your location off 105 you should be 2-5 degrees colder than Houston at night.

[southerngale]

As the soup Nazi on Seinfeld might say...."No snow for you!"

Dang that Nazi! He sure is a mean one.

It is a waste of cold air without the moisture. By the way, in your location off 105 you should be 2-5 degrees colder than Houston at night.

It sure is! I'm starting to get spoiled to these snow events.
Ouch, Greg. I missed the news, but just saw your latest forecast online.

[Portastorm]

A Tuesday night poem by Portastorm:

"I looked to the NAM to find some hope,
A little green and that's no joke,
Just a hint of snow is all I need,
Avoiding all appearance of greed,
Instead I found a run too dry,
It broke my heart and made me cry,
'To bed' I said, 'what a waste of time!'
'All I want is snow, or sleet, is that such a crime?'

[vbhoutex]

A Tuesday night poem by Portastorm:

"I looked to the NAM to find some hope,
A little green and that's no joke,
Just a hint of snow is all I need,
Avoiding all appearance of greed,
Instead I found a run too dry,
It broke my heart and made me cry,
'To bed' I said, 'what a waste of time!'
'All I want is snow, or sleet, is that such a crime?'

[srainhoutx]

A Tuesday night poem by Portastorm:

"I looked to the NAM to find some hope,
A little green and that's no joke,
Just a hint of snow is all I need,
Avoiding all appearance of greed,
Instead I found a run too dry,
It broke my heart and made me cry,
'To bed' I said, 'what a waste of time!'
'All I want is snow, or sleet, is that such a crime?'

[southerngale]

A Tuesday night poem by Portastorm:

"I looked to the NAM to find some hope,
A little green and that's no joke,
Just a hint of snow is all I need,
Avoiding all appearance of greed,
Instead I found a run too dry,
It broke my heart and made me cry,
'To bed' I said, 'what a waste of time!'
'All I want is snow, or sleet, is that such a crime?'

[gofrogs]

So guys whats the 0z showing.

[weatherguy425]

COLD!!!!

[srainhoutx]

Very impressive COLD. The Vort Max at hour 90 is impressive...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_090l.gif

Houston very close to some -9 850mb temps Saturday evening.

[gofrogs]

What about the dfw area and is the big ticket even still there.

[iorange55]

I'm loving the way the models are trending on Tuesday :]

[Ntxw]

I like our chances. It's been brewing for awhile.