Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

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southerngale
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#3441 Postby southerngale » Tue Jan 05, 2010 7:58 pm

wxman57... I believe the 2nd one is the 18z, correct? If so, does it show the front coming in a little sooner as well? It seems to, but not by much, if I'm reading it correctly.

I know that you've said you don't think there will be any snow for the Houston area. Do you think we have the same grim chances over here or even a little better chance? I know that it depends on if the precip sticks around a bit after it's cold enough, but I'm not sure if the precip will be moving through here slower than the front will. I think it will all get to you guys first over there. NWS LCH has my area with a 40% chance of rain/flurries for Thursday, which I know isn't much. They have flirted back and forth between slight chance of snow, rain, and flurries. Anyway, just wondering what your thoughts are, even though they've been quite depressing all day. :lol: I respect your opinion, though, whether I like it or not.
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Re:

#3442 Postby txagwxman » Tue Jan 05, 2010 8:24 pm

southerngale wrote:wxman57... I believe the 2nd one is the 18z, correct? If so, does it show the front coming in a little sooner as well? It seems to, but not by much, if I'm reading it correctly.

I know that you've said you don't think there will be any snow for the Houston area. Do you think we have the same grim chances over here or even a little better chance? I know that it depends on if the precip sticks around a bit after it's cold enough, but I'm not sure if the precip will be moving through here slower than the front will. I think it will all get to you guys first over there. NWS LCH has my area with a 40% chance of rain/flurries for Thursday, which I know isn't much. They have flirted back and forth between slight chance of snow, rain, and flurries. Anyway, just wondering what your thoughts are, even though they've been quite depressing all day. :lol: I respect your opinion, though, whether I like it or not.


I don't see snow Thursday, maybe we squeeze an ice pellet if the Arctic front is just a hair faster. But rain gone by noon. For Friday, only model that has anything is the GEM, ECMWF/GFS are too dry in the lower-levels of the atmosphere for precipitation. There were a few GEM ensembles member similar to the GEM, but I can't find one GFS ensemble member that has precipitation on Friday...going be cold, enjoy.
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Re: Re:

#3443 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jan 05, 2010 8:36 pm

txagwxman wrote:
southerngale wrote:wxman57... I believe the 2nd one is the 18z, correct? If so, does it show the front coming in a little sooner as well? It seems to, but not by much, if I'm reading it correctly.

I know that you've said you don't think there will be any snow for the Houston area. Do you think we have the same grim chances over here or even a little better chance? I know that it depends on if the precip sticks around a bit after it's cold enough, but I'm not sure if the precip will be moving through here slower than the front will. I think it will all get to you guys first over there. NWS LCH has my area with a 40% chance of rain/flurries for Thursday, which I know isn't much. They have flirted back and forth between slight chance of snow, rain, and flurries. Anyway, just wondering what your thoughts are, even though they've been quite depressing all day. :lol: I respect your opinion, though, whether I like it or not.


I don't see snow Thursday, maybe we squeeze an ice pellet if the Arctic front is just a hair faster. But rain gone by noon. For Friday, only model that has anything is the GEM, ECMWF/GFS are too dry in the lower-levels of the atmosphere for precipitation. There were a few GEM ensembles member similar to the GEM, but I can't find one GFS ensemble member that has precipitation on Friday...going be cold, enjoy.


Agreed. Temps over Beaumont/Port Arthur will be even warmer than over Houston. Temps in the 40s up to nearly 10,000 ft Thursday through early afternoon. Just a very thin layer of sub-freezing temps around 2000 ft by 3pm Thursday, but the precip should be over by then. This is NOT a sleet/snow event for SE TX, it's a cold, dry event.
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Re:

#3444 Postby greg_kfdm_tv » Tue Jan 05, 2010 8:49 pm

southerngale wrote:wxman57... I believe the 2nd one is the 18z, correct? If so, does it show the front coming in a little sooner as well? It seems to, but not by much, if I'm reading it correctly.

I know that you've said you don't think there will be any snow for the Houston area. Do you think we have the same grim chances over here or even a little better chance? I know that it depends on if the precip sticks around a bit after it's cold enough, but I'm not sure if the precip will be moving through here slower than the front will. I think it will all get to you guys first over there. NWS LCH has my area with a 40% chance of rain/flurries for Thursday, which I know isn't much. They have flirted back and forth between slight chance of snow, rain, and flurries. Anyway, just wondering what your thoughts are, even though they've been quite depressing all day. :lol: I respect your opinion, though, whether I like it or not.
As the soup Nazi on Seinfeld might say...."No snow for you!"
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#3445 Postby serenata09 » Tue Jan 05, 2010 9:01 pm

What are the chances of winter precip. looking like for DFW/North Texas? At this point my area shows a 30% chance of freezing drizzle.
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#3446 Postby hurrican19 » Tue Jan 05, 2010 9:56 pm

When you click on your "city" on the NWS web page, I have found it much more accurate to look at the Zone Area Forecast than the "Quickclick" forecast.
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Re: Re:

#3447 Postby southerngale » Tue Jan 05, 2010 10:00 pm

wxman57 wrote:
txagwxman wrote:
southerngale wrote:wxman57... I believe the 2nd one is the 18z, correct? If so, does it show the front coming in a little sooner as well? It seems to, but not by much, if I'm reading it correctly.

I know that you've said you don't think there will be any snow for the Houston area. Do you think we have the same grim chances over here or even a little better chance? I know that it depends on if the precip sticks around a bit after it's cold enough, but I'm not sure if the precip will be moving through here slower than the front will. I think it will all get to you guys first over there. NWS LCH has my area with a 40% chance of rain/flurries for Thursday, which I know isn't much. They have flirted back and forth between slight chance of snow, rain, and flurries. Anyway, just wondering what your thoughts are, even though they've been quite depressing all day. :lol: I respect your opinion, though, whether I like it or not.


I don't see snow Thursday, maybe we squeeze an ice pellet if the Arctic front is just a hair faster. But rain gone by noon. For Friday, only model that has anything is the GEM, ECMWF/GFS are too dry in the lower-levels of the atmosphere for precipitation. There were a few GEM ensembles member similar to the GEM, but I can't find one GFS ensemble member that has precipitation on Friday...going be cold, enjoy.


Agreed. Temps over Beaumont/Port Arthur will be even warmer than over Houston. Temps in the 40s up to nearly 10,000 ft Thursday through early afternoon. Just a very thin layer of sub-freezing temps around 2000 ft by 3pm Thursday, but the precip should be over by then. This is NOT a sleet/snow event for SE TX, it's a cold, dry event.


Thanks for the replies, guys. I think I just lost that last glimmer of hope, unless something drastically changes. I guess it's good not to have false hope, though. lol
Do you mean temps will be warmer over here when the precip falls or in the upper levels, or just overall? Just wondering as usually, my temps are quite a bit colder than Houston. I'm not sure about Port Arthur, though. I live just west of Beaumont, off of Hwy. 105.
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Re: Re:

#3448 Postby southerngale » Tue Jan 05, 2010 10:02 pm

greg_kfdm_tv wrote:
southerngale wrote:wxman57... I believe the 2nd one is the 18z, correct? If so, does it show the front coming in a little sooner as well? It seems to, but not by much, if I'm reading it correctly.

I know that you've said you don't think there will be any snow for the Houston area. Do you think we have the same grim chances over here or even a little better chance? I know that it depends on if the precip sticks around a bit after it's cold enough, but I'm not sure if the precip will be moving through here slower than the front will. I think it will all get to you guys first over there. NWS LCH has my area with a 40% chance of rain/flurries for Thursday, which I know isn't much. They have flirted back and forth between slight chance of snow, rain, and flurries. Anyway, just wondering what your thoughts are, even though they've been quite depressing all day. :lol: I respect your opinion, though, whether I like it or not.
As the soup Nazi on Seinfeld might say...."No snow for you!"

Dang that Nazi! He sure is a mean one.
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Re: Re:

#3449 Postby greg_kfdm_tv » Tue Jan 05, 2010 10:07 pm

southerngale wrote:
greg_kfdm_tv wrote:
southerngale wrote:wxman57... I believe the 2nd one is the 18z, correct? If so, does it show the front coming in a little sooner as well? It seems to, but not by much, if I'm reading it correctly.

I know that you've said you don't think there will be any snow for the Houston area. Do you think we have the same grim chances over here or even a little better chance? I know that it depends on if the precip sticks around a bit after it's cold enough, but I'm not sure if the precip will be moving through here slower than the front will. I think it will all get to you guys first over there. NWS LCH has my area with a 40% chance of rain/flurries for Thursday, which I know isn't much. They have flirted back and forth between slight chance of snow, rain, and flurries. Anyway, just wondering what your thoughts are, even though they've been quite depressing all day. :lol: I respect your opinion, though, whether I like it or not.
As the soup Nazi on Seinfeld might say...."No snow for you!"

Dang that Nazi! He sure is a mean one.

It is a waste of cold air without the moisture. By the way, in your location off 105 you should be 2-5 degrees colder than Houston at night.
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Re: Re:

#3450 Postby southerngale » Tue Jan 05, 2010 10:15 pm

greg_kfdm_tv wrote:
southerngale wrote:
greg_kfdm_tv wrote:As the soup Nazi on Seinfeld might say...."No snow for you!"

Dang that Nazi! He sure is a mean one.

It is a waste of cold air without the moisture. By the way, in your location off 105 you should be 2-5 degrees colder than Houston at night.

It sure is! I'm starting to get spoiled to these snow events.
Ouch, Greg. I missed the news, but just saw your latest forecast online. Image
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#3451 Postby Portastorm » Tue Jan 05, 2010 10:27 pm

A Tuesday night poem by Portastorm:

"I looked to the NAM to find some hope,
A little green and that's no joke,
Just a hint of snow is all I need,
Avoiding all appearance of greed,
Instead I found a run too dry,
It broke my heart and made me cry,
'To bed' I said, 'what a waste of time!'
'All I want is snow, or sleet, is that such a crime?'
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#3452 Postby vbhoutex » Tue Jan 05, 2010 10:31 pm

Portastorm wrote:A Tuesday night poem by Portastorm:

"I looked to the NAM to find some hope,
A little green and that's no joke,
Just a hint of snow is all I need,
Avoiding all appearance of greed,
Instead I found a run too dry,
It broke my heart and made me cry,
'To bed' I said, 'what a waste of time!'
'All I want is snow, or sleet, is that such a crime?'

:clap: :clap: :A: :A: :roflmao: :roflmao: :hehe: :hehe: :hehe:
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#3453 Postby srainhoutx » Tue Jan 05, 2010 10:33 pm

Portastorm wrote:A Tuesday night poem by Portastorm:

"I looked to the NAM to find some hope,
A little green and that's no joke,
Just a hint of snow is all I need,
Avoiding all appearance of greed,
Instead I found a run too dry,
It broke my heart and made me cry,
'To bed' I said, 'what a waste of time!'
'All I want is snow, or sleet, is that such a crime?'


:lol: :lol: :P :notworthy: :notworthy: :notworthy:
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#3454 Postby southerngale » Tue Jan 05, 2010 10:34 pm

Portastorm wrote:A Tuesday night poem by Portastorm:

"I looked to the NAM to find some hope,
A little green and that's no joke,
Just a hint of snow is all I need,
Avoiding all appearance of greed,
Instead I found a run too dry,
It broke my heart and made me cry,
'To bed' I said, 'what a waste of time!'
'All I want is snow, or sleet, is that such a crime?'


Image
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#3455 Postby gofrogs » Tue Jan 05, 2010 11:13 pm

So guys whats the 0z showing.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#3456 Postby weatherguy425 » Tue Jan 05, 2010 11:15 pm

COLD!!!! :froze:
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#3457 Postby srainhoutx » Tue Jan 05, 2010 11:16 pm

Very impressive COLD. The Vort Max at hour 90 is impressive...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_090l.gif

Houston very close to some -9 850mb temps Saturday evening.
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#3458 Postby gofrogs » Tue Jan 05, 2010 11:20 pm

What about the dfw area and is the big ticket even still there.
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#3459 Postby iorange55 » Tue Jan 05, 2010 11:22 pm

I'm loving the way the models are trending on Tuesday :]
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Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#3460 Postby Ntxw » Tue Jan 05, 2010 11:23 pm

I like our chances. It's been brewing for awhile.

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